(Original title: 4,000 shares soaring red! A-shares welcome the full registration system, and the style has quietly changed! 300 funds “running away”? Interpretation of the seven major public offerings)
The Shanghai stock index rose by more than 2%, nearly 4,000 individual stocks rose, and the three major operators in the communications sector “dancing elephants”…
On February 20, A-shares responded enthusiastically to the positive news of the formal implementation of the comprehensive registration system! Not only that, but A-shares also brought a style change that is easy to ignore: China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom, the three major communication operators “elephants dance”, and the blue-chip sector surpassed technology growth to become the main force in the rising market.
The fund manager bluntly stated that the rise in A shares is mainly due to the increase in risk appetite brought about by policy reforms and the optimistic expectations for profit growth brought about by the improvement of high-frequency economic data. After the full implementation of the registration system, it will be more obvious that transactions will be concentrated in leading companies, and stocks with poor performance will continue to be marginalized or even delisted. It should be pointed out that this does not mean that the technological growth market will be absent. The fund manager also pointed out that the leading characteristics of the technology style from the beginning of the year are relatively prominent. “This is likely to be a preview of the market for the whole year in 2023. This technology cycle market may last for more than one year.” From the predictions of top fund managers such as Feng Mingyuan Look, the new energy field, including energy storage and other tracks, still has good investment value.
The four major indexes all rose more than 2%
Yesterday, the major A-share indexes opened higher and moved higher, and sectors such as securities companies, construction machinery, communications, home building materials, and household appliances rose significantly. However, it should be noted that there are signs of a “small to large” style change in the rising market: the blue chip sector has become the leader of the rise, and the growth of the previously active science and technology innovation has been slightly inferior.
For example, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and SSE 50 all rose by more than 2%, ahead of the ChiNext Index (1.28%) and Science and Technology 50 (1.27%). Blue chip indexes such as Shenzhen Dividend and SSE 180 They are also better than the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index, and far surpass the ChiNext Index.
The change from “small to large” is more obvious in terms of plates. For example, the three major communication operators China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom “dancing elephants”. China Telecom’s daily limit yesterday, and the cumulative increase since 2023 has exceeded 40%. Sany Heavy Industry rose by more than 8% yesterday, with a cumulative increase of more than 20% this year; Nanjing Securities rose 8.59% yesterday, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20% this year.
Driven by the communications sector, the CSI All-Index Software Index (H30202), which covers themes such as digital economy and Xinchuang, rose by 3.39%, and individual stocks such as 360 and Dongfang Guoxin all rose by more than 6%.
After the market closed yesterday, Yang Wei, general manager of the Hang Seng Qianhai Fund Index and Quantitative Investment Department, said that the rise in A shares on the 20th was mainly due to the increase in risk appetite brought about by policy reforms and the optimism for profit growth brought about by the improvement of high-frequency economic data. It is expected that, for example, the full implementation of the relevant systems and rules of the stock issuance registration system marks that A shares have officially entered the era of the comprehensive registration system; high-frequency economic data shows that the Chinese economy is still in the process of stabilizing and recovering; and the net inflow of northbound funds continues. Yang Wei said that as of February 20, the cumulative net purchase amount of northbound funds this year has reached 163.899 billion yuan, of which the net inflow in January was 141.2 billion yuan, a record high since the opening of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, showing that foreign capital has contributed to the stabilization and recovery of the Chinese economy. Confidence.
“In the last two trading days of last week, the corrections of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market were relatively large, which released certain risks. Under the expectation that the domestic economy will continue to recover, the market returned to an upward trend yesterday. The overall northbound funds are still net inflows, and the trend has not yet been confirmed. The turnaround also provides some support for the upward movement of A-shares.” Bosera Fund said.
Nearly 300 active equity funds have heavy positions in the three major operators in advance
In terms of fund holdings, relevant data shows that active equity funds hold a total of 297 funds (A/C shares are calculated separately) that hold the stocks of China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile. Among them, 6 funds accounted for more than 10% of the total positions, and 52 funds accounted for more than 5%. For example, the Nuoan industry rotation mix managed by Han Dongyan accounted for more than 20% of the total holdings of the three major operator stocks. Han Dongyan has managed a total return of 89.56% in more than 5 years since June 2017. 12%, ranking among the top 10% of similar funds. In addition, the other two funds managed by Han Dongyan, Nuoan Advanced Manufacturing Stock and Nuoan Small and Medium Cap Selected Mix, also hold the stocks of the three major operators, accounting for more than 14% of their positions.
There is also no shortage of index funds in the communications industry. For example, the scale of Huaxia 5GETF has reached 8.7 billion, the scale of Yinhua 5GETF is close to 2 billion yuan, and the corresponding connection funds of the two funds track the China Securities 5G Communication Theme Index. Select 50 listed companies whose businesses are related to 5G construction or application in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets as index samples.
China Merchants Fund believes that the performance of the CSI All-Shares Software Index on the 20th is relatively strong, or because an operator has fully deployed large-scale model technology research and development and achieved phased results; A new type of information infrastructure focusing on power networks and capabilities in Taiwan, and innovative construction of a new information service system of “connection + computing power + capabilities”, driving related industry chain companies to soar. It should be noted that although AI-related companies have the largest gains, the sector has fluctuated greatly recently, mainly because investors have relatively large differences in perception of the future development direction of AI, and related companies have accumulated certain gains in the early stage.
Be a good shareholder of the company and hold a good company
When talking about the relationship between the comprehensive registration system and the “small to large” style. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, said bluntly that “gold is seen only when the yellow sand is blown away.” He said that after the full implementation of the registration system, more blue-chip stocks will enter the capital market and inject fresh blood into the market. At the same time, companies that do not meet the listing requirements will withdraw in time, forming a trend of survival of the fittest.
Citing relevant data, Yang Delong pointed out that in terms of the proportion of the top 300 stocks with the largest market capitalization in the entire market, A shares account for about 60%, Hong Kong stocks account for about 80%, and US stocks account for more than 95%. “This shows that the more mature the market, the more transactions will be concentrated on leading companies, and poor performance stocks and subject stocks will continue to be marginalized or even delisted. This phenomenon will become more obvious after the full implementation of the registration system for A shares. Therefore, we must do a good job in the future. Shareholders of the company may allocate high-quality funds to indirectly hold good companies.”
China Asset Management said that emerging growth industries that are in line with the national strategic development direction after the comprehensive registration system are expected to receive policy support. Drawing on the experience of the registration system such as the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, about 96% of the current registration system stocks belong to strategic emerging industries. It is expected that the comprehensive registration system will still focus on the national strategic development direction in the future, focusing on nine strategic emerging industries such as new generation information technology, high-end equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, new energy, and digital creative industries, so as to solve the “stuck neck” problem and realize The independence and security of our country’s development.
It is worth mentioning that the style change of “from small to large” does not mean that the technological growth market will be absent. Tong Li, general manager of the research and development department of Huashang Fund, said bluntly that from the beginning of the year to the present, the leading characteristics of the technology style are more prominent, such as the traditional TMT industry, and industries with strong technological attributes such as innovative drugs in medicine have performed better. This is likely to be a preview of the market for the whole year in 2023, and this technology cycle market may last for more than one year. Because many macro factors that have plagued A shares before have undergone positive changes, the Chinese economy is expected to be the first to recover in the world, and the pan-tech market may continue.
Layout “high-quality” related plates
In terms of sector layout, China Merchants Fund believes that this year may be an important node for the construction of the digital economy. With the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the gradual implementation of corporate bidding, the further recovery of related company performance, and the continuous catalysis of superimposed policies, as a sector with long-term driving logic , which deserves special attention.
Tong Li believes that under the implementation of the comprehensive registration system, investment should choose subdivision directions with long-term investment value, and you can focus on “high-quality” directions. Tong Li first mentioned the manufacturing industry. “Manufacturing power” points out the direction of future manufacturing development and manufacturing investment. Since China’s manufacturing industry is very large and has many subdivisions, there is a high probability that there will be no simultaneous rise and fall, but differentiation. In the investment layout in the future, we can focus on “high-quality” directions such as manufacturing upgrading and high-end manufacturing.
Regarding the consumption field, Tong Li believes that the recovery of consumption may only be a short-term logic. In the long run, we can pay attention to three subdivision directions of consumption: first, companies that upgrade consumption may have sustainable opportunities; second, companies that meet new consumption and meet new needs may have explosive growth; third, some The company will continue to expand its circle of competence. For example, there are many state-owned enterprises in consumption. Under the encouragement of state-owned enterprise reform, some enterprises can undergo positive changes, which deserves attention.
Fund managers also gave optimistic predictions about new energy, which has a large divergence in the market.
Tong Li believes that there is still room for development in the new energy industry, and we can pay attention to new directions and new opportunities in new energy. For example, in the photovoltaic and wind power industry chains, whether new technologies can bring about another take-off and efficiency improvement of the entire industry; secondly, we can focus on new opportunities for energy conservation and emission reduction in traditional fields.
Feng Mingyuan, star fund manager and deputy general manager of Cinda Australia and Asia Fund, believes that China’s new energy industry already has very strong competitiveness on a global scale, and the track is basically dominated by the manufacturing system. Having accumulated strong technology and strong engineering research and development capabilities, we can look for investment opportunities from the following three dimensions: one is the supply chain of domestic host brands; the other is investing in new products and components; the third is investment in the field of new energy Energy storage is expected to rise rapidly in the next 1-3 years. Compared with other 3C batteries and power batteries, the demand is quite different, and the energy storage battery pursues high cycle times and safety. Therefore, energy storage batteries have very high requirements on life, quality, thermal management, and temperature control. It is hoped to find a battery supplier with better quality.
Proofreading: Wang Wei
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