MILANO – The markets continue to follow the pace of expectations on the moves of central banks, the Federal Reserve in particular. On the one hand, the American institute sees the economy as showing no signs of slowing down, as demonstrated by the latest report on employment, much stronger than expected. There are some signs of a slowdown in prices, but still a long way from the governor’s objectives Powell.
It will be out on Tuesday the new data on consumer prices from the United States, event circled in red in the investors’ agenda. The expectation is for a slowdown in the annual change to 6.2% in January (from the previous 6.5%), with the core index – the one that excludes the volatility of the energy and food components – which should move by 0, 4% monthly and 5.5% on January 2022 (from 5.7%). But, he cautions Bloomberg, an unexpected growth in fuel and used cars could put a spanner in the works to the declining trend in prices that has been seen in recent months and which has allowed the S&P500, Wall Street’s main index, to put together a +14% from the minimum in October. “Inflation has most likely peaked and prices have gone downhill, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be linear,” Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, said with the finance agency. “The more resilient the economy, the more the Fed has to keep pace,” wrote Morgan Stanley, although its baseline scenario is one of a soft landing or a Fed that manages to cool prices without derailing the economy . With traders currently pricing in at least another quarter-point hike, the question becomes how long the Fed will need to hold its rate spike to reach an acceptable price level. The risk is that “this tightening cycle is not just about one, two or three 25 basis point hikes, but something more structural,” said former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers in an interview with Bloomberg.
US data will almost certainly bring volatility: Over the past six months, the S&P 500 moved 2.6 percentage points in either direction on inflation day. An oscillation band close to the highs of 2009. And in the mind there is still the report of September 13, capable of triggering a collapse of more than 4 points. But the American numbers will be the only ones of the week: the data of theinflation in Britain and Spain and Friday in France.
On Wednesday in Strasbourg the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde will intervene in the debate in the plenary meeting of the European Parliament on the 2021 annual report of the European Central Bank. The day before, however, the Japanese government will present the new candidate for governor of the Bank of Japan to Parliament. After the waiver of Masayoshi Amamiyathe deputy to current Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term expires in April, the number one candidate for succession is the academic kuazo ueda. Markets are closely monitoring the appointment as the new governor’s agenda will be scrutinized as to how quickly the BOJ could phase out its ultra-loose monetary policy and massive stimulus program.
Here are the events on the agenda breaking latest news:
MONDAY FEBRUARY 13
– Simest: press conference in Rome on the new 2023-2025 Strategic Plan. Participating, among others, the president Pasquale Salzano; CEO Regina Corradini D’Arienzo; Dario Scannapieco, to Cdp.
– Pensions: roundtable on young people and women in Rome at the Ministry of Labor and Social Policies.
– Carabinieri: inauguration of the Officers’ School in Rome for the 2022-2023 academic year. Participating, among others, the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni; the Minister of Defence, Guido Crosetto; the Minister of Agriculture, Francesco Lollobrigida; the minister of the Pa, Paolo Zangrillo.
– Banks: the “Eemi Trento Bauhaus week” event in Trento, organized by the Energy Efficient Mortgages Initiative. Participates, among others, Giovanni Sabatini, dg Abi.
– Confindustria Moda: “The Useful Beauty” event in Milan.
– Leonardo: in Rome to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Leonardo Foundation magazine ‘Civilta’ delle macchinè, with the president of the Leonardo-Cdm Foundation Luciano Violante and Leonardo’s CEO Alessandro Profumo.
– Enel: in Rome, a conference organized by Enel “Energies for Schools: businesses and schools together to promote the energy transition”, with Angelo Camilli, president of Unindustria.
– EU: in Brussels the European Commission publishes GDP and inflation estimates for 2023-2024.
– Eurogroup: meeting in Brussels.
TUESDAY FEBRUARY 14
– Government Bonds: Btp auction.
– Ecofin: Ecofin meeting.
– Stellantis: the table convened in Rome at the Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy. Participates, Minister Adolfo Urso.
– Fp Cgil: in Cervia (Ra) “Re-Generations. Work in public services creates the future”, national congress.
– Accountants: in Rome, a meeting of the National Council of Chartered Accountants and Accounting Experts “Third sector entities, regulatory evolution and professional practice”.
– Pa: “Dialogues on digital” in Rome, with the Minister for Public Administration, Paolo Zangrillo.
– Japan: fourth quarter GDP; Industrial Production Dec; central bank chooses new governor.
– Usa: January inflation.
– France: fourth quarter unemployment rate.
– GB: unemployment rate 11th December; average wages.
– Eurozone: fourth quarter GDP and employment.
WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 15
– Terna: presentation event for the 2023 Driving Energy Award in Rome. Among others, Valentina Bosetti, President of Terna and Stefano Donnarumma, CEO of Terna, take part.
– Tim: conference call and press conference on accounts.
– Filt Cgil: the 12th National Congress kicks off in Catania. Participates, among others, Renato Schifani, president of the Sicilian Region.
– Fp Cgil: in Cervia (Ra) “Re-Generations. Work in public services creates the future”, national congress, with De Pascale, the president of the Conference of Regions, Massimiliano Fedriga and the general secretary of the CGIL Maurizio Landini.
– Enterprises: online workshop “Permanent census of enterprises”, organized by Istat in collaboration with Confindustria. Alberto Marenghi, Confindustria vice president for Organisation, Development and Marketing.
– Abi: executive committee in Rome. Among others, Raffaele Fitto, Minister for European Affairs, the South, Cohesion Policies and the National Resilience Recovery Plan will participate.
– Inps: in Rome presentation of the Civ address document “The role of Inps in social and economic transformations for a cohesive, efficient and supportive country”. With Marina Elvira Calderone Minister of Labor and Social Policies, Pasquale Tridico president of INPS, Roberto Ghiselli president of Civ, Rosario De Luca national president of the Order of Labor Consultants, Francesco Zaffini president of the Senate Labor Commission.
– Energy: in Rome Aspenia Talk “Italy between energy security and ecological transition”, organized by Aspen Instituite Italia in collaboration with Cesi.
– Pnrr: in Rome “Pnrr, governance and administrative capacity”, event promoted by FLP – Federation of Public Workers and Public Functions, with Michele Camisasca, Istat general manager, Marco Carlomagno, FLP secretary, Maria Teresa Bellucci, Deputy Minister of Labor and Policies Sociali, Lucia Albano, Undersecretary for the Economy.
– Bankitalia: gross debt of general government and central government in the fourth quarter; statistics Public finance, borrowing requirement and debt December.
– ECB: speech by Christine Lagarde in the plenary debate on the 2021 Annual Report in Strasbourg.
– BusinessMed event: “Med Business Days 2023″ Southern Edition in Cairo. Participating, among others, Barbara Beltrame, vice president of Confindustria for Internationalization.
– Gb: January inflation.
– Spain: January inflation.
– Eurozone: industrial production in December.
– Usa: February Empire Manufacturing Index; retail sales, industrial production in January; corporate stocks december.
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 16
– Istat: foreign trade and December import prices; vacancies in industry and services, preliminary estimates IV quarter.
– Inps: January Cig observatory.
– Assofondipensione: annual meeting in Rome. Among others, Giovanni Maggi, president of Assofondipensione; Federico Freni, undersecretary of state at the Ministry of Economy and Finance; Mario Padula, president of Covip.
– Event “The value of consultancy – For families, businesses and the country”: in Milan, organized by Wall Street Italia. 9.30 am.
Participates, among others, Giovanni Sabatini, dg Abi.
– Filt Cgil: the 12th National Congress continues in Catania. Participating, among others, Edoardo Rixi, Deputy Minister of Infrastructure and Transport; Roberto Tomasi, at Autostrade per l’Italia; Luigi Ferraris, CEO of the Italian State Railways Group. At the Four Points Hotel.
– Fiom: in Padua congress “We have been producing the future for 121 years”.
Introductory speech by the general secretary, Michele De Palma.
Padova Congress.
– Filcams-Cgil: congress in Rimini. Concludes the general secretary of the CGIL Maurizio Landini.
– Consob: third day of the cycle of seminars in Rome: “The financial choices of Italian families – Financial culture, innovation and sustainability” with an event entitled: “Financial planning – Knowledge, attitudes and choices of Italian investors – VIII Consob Report” .
– Tenaris: conference call.
– ECB: monthly economic bulletin.
– Usa: unemployment benefits; producer prices January; February Philadelphia Fed Index and January Building Permits.
– Japan: machinery orders and December trade balance.
FRIDAY FEBRUARY 17
– Filt Cgil: the 12th National Congress ends in Catania.
At the Four Points Hotel. At the end of the Congress there will be the convocation of the General Assembly for the election of the general secretary.
– Fiom: the congress “We have been producing the future for 121 years” continues in Padua. With the general secretary of the CGIL Maurizio Landini.
– Cdp: in Palermo: road show “Resources and projects for Sicily”.
Participating, among others, Giovanni Gorno Tempini, president of the CDP; Dario Scannapieco, CEO of the CDP; Regina Corradini D’Arienzo, ad Simest; Alessandro Albanese, president of Confindustria Sicily; Paolo Amenta, president of Anci Sicily.
– Gb: January retail sales.
– France: January inflation.
– Usa: January import prices; leading index.
SATURDAY FEBRUARY 18
– Fiom: the congress “We have been producing the future for 121 years” continues in Padua.