CITIC Securitiesreleaseresearch reportsay,BYD shares(01211) In February 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 87,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 764%, outperforming the industry and highlighting the cycle of strong models. With the continuous improvement of the model matrix and the continuous verification of the competitiveness of new energy vehicles, the company’s intelligent + overseas development is expected to become a new bright spot in 2022. In addition, the neutralization strategy is steadily advancing,BYDsemiconductorThe listing application has been closed on January 27, 2022.powerBatteryExternal acceleration, energy storageBatteryShipments have improved, and the value of the supply chain has become prominent.
event:On March 3, 2022, the company released the auto sales report for February 2022. In February 2022, the company sold 91,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 195%; of which, 87,000 new energy vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 764% and a month-on-month -6%; and 2,795 fuel vehicles.
CITIC SecuritiesThe main points are as follows:
The sales volume of 22M2 new energy passenger vehicles was 87,000 units (-6% MoM), leading the industry by a large margin.
In February, the company sold 91,000 vehicles, +195% year-on-year and -5% month-on-month, of which 87,000 new energy vehicles sold +764% year-on-year and -6% month-on-month. In terms of categories, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in February 2022 were 87,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 764% and a month-on-month -6%, significantly outperforming the industry’s -30% month-on-month decline. Among them, 43,000 pure electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 451%. Key models such as Han, Tang and Dolphin performed outstandingly. The new model Yuan plus doubled the month-on-month and continued to increase the volume; The proportion of sales of high-priced models such as Tang DM-i increased. In February, 810 new energy commercial vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 95%. In terms of fuel vehicles, 2,795 units were sold in February. Momentum in FebruaryBatteryAnd the installed capacity of energy storage batteries was 4.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 241%; the cumulative installed capacity from January to February was 9.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 202%.
The model cycle continues to rise, and electrification technology leads the industry.
The company’s flagship sedan “Han”, a blockbuster model, was launched in July 2020. In February 2022, about 9,084 “Han” vehicles were sold, and monthly sales continued to be hot. Among them, Han EV sold about 86.84 million units, Han DM (replacement Han DMi) about 400 units, and the mid-to-high-end model “Han” terminal sold well, which verified the competitiveness of electric products, drove the company’s brand power enhancement, and led the company’s new model cycle. . Qin Plus, Song Plus and Tang, equipped with the new fourth-generation plug-in hybrid platform DM-i, were officially launched in March and April 2021, respectively, and sales in February 2022 will be approximately 14,000, 19,000 and 10,000 respectively. , the total of DM-i series increased month-on-month, and the order structure was optimized.
In 2021H1, the company released the e-platform 3.0 at the Shanghai Auto Show. Based on this platform, the pure electric vehicles “Dolphin” and Yuan PlusEV will be released in August and November 2021, respectively. The price of the Dolphin is 96,800-124,800, and the price and performance advantages are outstanding. In 2022 In February, 8,565 units were sold, gradually replacing fuel vehicles of the same price. Yuan Plus continued to increase volume, with sales exceeding 4,000+ units in February.
In March 2020, the company released the “blade battery” technology, leading the industry with high energy density, low cost and high safety, and equipped with the flagship model “Han”, the production capacity climbed smoothly during the year. At the same time, since 2020, the power battery will continue to break through the external supply. At present, the domestic market has been equipped with Changan, Xiaokang, BAIC, FAW Hongqi and other car companies, and overseas customers have received special points, and it is expected to supply Toyota, Mercedes-Benz and other world-renowned car companies.
Dynasty+Ocean dual networks go hand in hand, the matrix of mid-to-high-end models continues to improve, and the smart+going overseas is expected to exceed expectations in 2022.
In November 2021, Guangzhou Auto Show announced that the original e-net will be upgraded to Haiyang.com, establishing a new channel network and marketing model, and planning two series: the “Ocean Creature” series models are all built on the e-platform 3.0, and the first model “Dolphin” has been launched. ”, the second model of the “Ocean Animal” series, Ocean-X, is scheduled to be unveiled in 2022; the “Warship” series is exclusively equipped with the DM-i super hybrid system, which is planned to include sedans, SUVs, MPVs and other models.
December 2021Company AnnouncementIncrease the capital of Denza brand by 1 billion yuan, on the same day DaimlerannouncementIt is planned to transfer 40% of the equity to the company. The bank expects that the company will hold 90% of the equity of the Denza brand by mid-2022. So far, Dynasty+Ocean has covered the mainstream market of 100,000-300,000, the Denza brand has covered the mid-to-high-end model market of 300,000-500,000, and its own new high-end brand has covered the high-end model market of more than 500,000, achieving full coverage of model class, powertrain, and price band. , further expand the target market, and promote the company’s model cycle further upward. After the matrix layout of mid-to-high-end models is perfected, the company is expected to start making efforts to become intelligent.
The bank predicts that the intelligent configuration of Ocean-X, the third model of e-platform 3.0, is expected to exceed expectations, the intelligent technical capabilities of e-platform 3.0 will gradually emerge, and the company’s intelligent value is expected to usher in a reassessment. On the other hand, the competitiveness of the company’s new energy vehicles has been continuously verified in the domestic market. Compared with overseas car companies, it has advantages. The conditions for going overseas are complete and the time is ripe. Since the second half of 2021, the high-end models Han and Tang have been unveiled and sold in many overseas countries and regions. The bank believes that 2022 will be the “first year” for the company to go overseas, opening up space for the company to grow in the medium and long term.
The fixed increase will help the expansion of production capacity, and the neutral value of the supply chain will be highlighted.
On November 1, 2021, the company announced the allotment of 50 million H shares,Additional issuance1.75% of the total share capital, with a net fundraising of 13.8 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 11.4 billion yuan). The fundraising plan is to invest in electric and intelligent directions, which will help to further enhance the company’s research and development capabilities and maintain a leading position in the industry. Since the end of 2020, withNingde era、Yiwei Lithium Energy、SunwandaThe new energy vehicle industry chain companies represented by them all started a new round of fundraising and production expansion activities. In terms of downstream layout,BYDInvested and set up factories in Jinan, Zhengzhou, Wuwei, Bengbu, Changchun and other places to produce new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and related parts.In terms of upstream layout, the company announced that it will increase its investment as a strategic investment.Sichuan Road and Bridgeand fit withSichuan Road and Bridge、Chuaneng PowerSet up a joint venture company to develop phosphate rock and lithium iron phosphate projects, and actively locate lithium and phosphorus resources.
As a leader in electrification technology, in addition to the electric vehicle business, the bank believes that the company’s subsequent greater investment value is as a neutral “one-stop solution provider for new energy vehicles”, including lithium batteries (blade battery technology, etc. ),semiconductor(IGBT), three in onemotor/ Electronic control technology, etc. At present, the company’s electric vehicle and battery business is booming, among which:
1) Electric vehicle:With the release of DM-i sales, word of mouth continues to ferment, superimposed Ocean + Dynasty double network drive, the bank expects the company’s new electric passenger car sales in 2022 to be 1.27 million units (+112% YoY), superimposed on hand orders 200,000 1.5 million vehicles are expected to be delivered throughout the year. With the launch of new models and high-end brands of the pure electric e-platform 3.0, the upward cycle of the company’s models is expected to continue.
2) Battery:The global supply of blade batteries is accelerating, and the value of high-quality battery suppliers is highlighted under the expectation of neutrality, and benchmarkingNingde eraThe valuation is expected to increase.
Investment Advice:Consider 2021Consumer ElectronicsDemand is affected by the lack of cores,BYD ElectronicsProfits are under pressure, maintaining the company’s return to the parent in 2021net profitThe forecast is 4.5 billion yuan; considering the remodeling of the company’s model matrix, the electric vehicle model cycle continues to rise, the external supply of power batteries and the shipment of energy storage batteries are accelerated, maintaining the company’s 2022/23 net profit forecast at 9.0/15.2 billion yuan.
Risk factors:Sales of new energy vehicles were lower than expected;BYDThe sales volume of DM-i new platform models was lower than expected; the technical route changed; the new energy vehicle policy fluctuated.
(Article source: Zhitong Financial Network)