Reposted from: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
【20230210】Cloud Comment |There is a drop in demand after the festival,PTAsharp drop
On February 10, PTA fluctuated and fell, leading the decline in the commodity sector. As of the close, the PTA main contract TA2305 fell sharply by 160 yuan from the previous trading day, closing at 5,460 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 3.29%, which exceeded market expectations.
Strong expectations before the festival, but demand after the festival is slightly lower than expected
At the end of 22, the domestic epidemic prevention and control policy was relaxed, the peak of the infection rate was over, and the domestic population flow increased significantly. Especially during the Spring Festival, consumption activities such as travel, catering, and movie entertainment increased significantly. The market has good expectations for the demand for clothing in 23 years, the PTA futures contract has strengthened sharply before the festival, the enthusiasm for stocking up terminal raw materials has increased, and the confidence in the industrial chain has recovered.
After returning from the Spring Festival, crude oil fell weakly, commodities as a whole fell weakly, and the price of PTA seasonal accumulation also fell weakly. Due to the strong demand for oil adjustment at the cost end and the support of PX at the cost end, the overall decline in PTA was not large.
On the 10th, crude oil at the cost side did not change much, and PTA fell sharply more than expected. This has something to do with the slow recovery of the terminal after the holiday, orders slightly lower than expected, and the market’s mentality before and after the holiday.
The industrial chain is seasonally accumulated, with little change in supply and demand
From the perspective of PTA fundamentals, there is little change in supply and demand in the post-holiday seasonal off-season accumulation. On the supply side, Hengli 2#, INEOS, Sichuan Shengda, Tongkun, YS Ningbo and other TA plants were overhauled and restarted before and after the holiday in January. On the demand side, the terminal weaving and polyester links will drop seasonally during the Spring Festival. The weaving start-up will be less than 5%, and the polyester start-up will be 66%. The demand will drop significantly.
Supply rebounded, demand fell, and PTA accumulated seasonally in January. With the increase in inventory after the holiday, the spot liquidity increased, and the trend of PTA was weak, the basis weakened slightly, and the PTA processing fee was also reduced to a low level of 200-300 yuan.
There are large differences on the demand side, and the industry chain is not pessimistic
Before the holiday, the market is optimistic and expects a sharp rise in the market, which will drive the recovery of the overall cash flow of the PTA industry chain, and the valuation is at a neutral to high level. Whether the demand after the festival can be implemented as expected has become the focus of market attention, and research after the Spring Festival is also relatively intensive.
Judging from some feedback from demand research, the most important manifestation of demand is the slow resumption of terminal production. In the first week after the festival, the arrival of personnel in weaving and polyester sectors was slow, the operating rate of stretching looms only recovered to 20-30%, and the operating rate of polyester was about 67%. To 78%, the weaving start rebounded to 60-70%. Clothing wholesale markets in various places also open their stalls after the Lantern Festival.
From the perspective of stocking and inventory, it is expected that the stocking of raw materials for good terminals before the festival will be high, and the stocking of raw materials after the festival will be about 20 days, and some will be prepared until the end of February to the beginning of March. The finished product inventory pressure is not big, and the raw material is too much. There are not many orders after the terminal festival, and the raw material market is cautious in placing orders. The market is generally worried that export orders may be greatly affected.
According to our visit to the Qipu Road Clothing Wholesale Market, the current stalls are basically fully open, but the flow of people is average, and the performance of some stores is currently unable to clearly see whether the demand is better than the same period in previous years. Now it is the beginning of spring, the off-season, and the weather is relatively cold. , The flow of people has not fully recovered, and whether the demand is really good will not be judged until March.
Although the resumption of production and work at the terminal is not fast, the industry’s expectations are not pessimistic. Most clothing stores say that after the release this year, the demand will be better than last year’s long-term lockdown. The recovery of the operating rate of some weaving factories has accelerated, orders have resumed, and the willingness of downstream replenishment will increase after the price of raw materials stabilizes and rises.
Pay attention to the further recovery of demand after the valuation revision
Judging from the current PTA, supply and demand are seasonally accumulated. Although the recovery of demand is slow, this is also related to the freer movement of people after the liberalization and the earlier Spring Festival in 23 years. Optimistic expectations before the festival, slow resumption of production after the festival, cautious order placement, and a significant downward revision of PTA valuation. The low processing fee can to some extent reflect the reality of seasonal accumulation and lower demand than expected, and there is little room for short-term PTA profit compression.
Follow-up attention will be paid to whether there will be an increase in maintenance on the supply side under low processing fees and further recovery in demand, resulting in an improvement in supply and demand.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP