Hurry up: if the vaccination campaign is not accelerated, the economy will not restart. This is the position of Confindustria according to which a “in the face of favorable indications on the dynamics of the industry, it is necessary to be aware that a large slice of the Italian economy – that of services, which covers about three quarters of the national added value – is still in severe pain and will only be able to fully restart when the contagion curve drops again and restrictions are gradually removed. From this point of view, it is therefore crucial that the vaccination campaign proceed quickly and efficiently, as guaranteed by the Government; if for some reason this does not happen, the risk is that the waiting resumption is still late to start “.
On the other hand, what worries industrialists is the evidence found by the Study Center according to which in March the growth of industrial activity was interrupted after a good start to the year (for the quarter it is estimated a + 1% compared to the last three months of 2020).
However, despite the increase in restrictions, the Confindustria Study Center notes “a good resilience, in this phase supported more by the acceleration of foreign demand”. Domestic demand, less dynamic due to limitations in moving and carrying out certain activities, affects the tertiary sector which in the first quarter weighs on the dynamics of GDP, expected to be marginally retreating. The investigations therefore confirm “a cautious optimism” on the evolution of demand in the coming months, in line with the assurances of the Government on the rapid and efficient evolution of the vaccination campaign.
According to Euler Hermes, the delay in the vaccination campaign can cost the European Union 90 billion dollars, while each week of targeted lockdown has an impact of two billion euros on the Italian economy. Just over 0.1% of GDP.