Source: Ruida Futures Author: Ruida Futures
Research report text
This week (February 24)RebarFutures prices continued to rebound. Due to the rising trend of furnace charges, the increase in steelmaking costs, and the continuous release of superimposed terminal demand, the fourth round of resumption of work and the availability of labor services have exceeded the same period in the lunar calendar last year. The leading areas are East China and Central China, which support the gradual rise in rebar futures prices.
Market outlook:On the supply side, the weekly production of rebar in this period continues to rise, and the growth rate has expanded. The weekly capacity utilization rate has increased to around 62%, and the supply in the future market is expected to continue to increase; The domestic inventory has changed from increase to decrease. With the increase of downstream resumption of work, demand is expected to pick up further. In terms of operation, it is suggested that the RB2305 contract should be called back to do more, and the stop loss should refer to 4100.
【Futures and spot market conditions】
Futures prices continued to rebound this week:
This week, the RB2305 contract continued to rebound.
This week, the trend of the RB2305 contract was weaker than that of the RB2310 contract. The price difference on the 24th was 60 yuan/ton, which was -5 yuan/ton week-on-week.
Rebar warehouse receipts decreased this week, and the headroom of the top 20 positions decreased:
On February 24, the rebar warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 52,464 tons, a week-on-week ratio of -22,235 tons.
On February 24, the net positions of the top 20 rebar futures contracts were 51,742 contracts, a decrease of 40,113 contracts from the previous week.
Spot prices have been raised this week and basis has strengthened:
On February 24, the spot price of Shanghai’s third-grade rebar 20mmHRB400 (reasonable calculation) was 4260 yuan/ton, which was +80 yuan/ton week-on-week; the national average price was 4344 yuan/ton, which was +56 yuan/ton week-on-week.
This week, the spot price of rebar is stronger than that of futures. The current basis on the 24th is 36 yuan/ton, which is +23 yuan/ton week-on-week.
【Upstream market situation】
Furnace of the weekiron oreStone spot raised,CokeSpot prices are flat:
On February 24, 61% Australian Mac powder ore in Qingdao Port was reported at 987 yuan/dry ton, a week-on-week ratio of +40 yuan/dry ton.
On February 24, the spot price of first-grade metallurgical coke in Tianjin Port was 2,910 yuan/ton, +0 yuan/ton week-on-week.
This week, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Pakistan increased, and the port inventory increased:
According to statistics, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil in this period were 23.032 million tons, an increase of 4.523 million tons from the previous month.
On February 24, according to statistics, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 14,223.26, an increase of 112.54 from the previous month; the average daily port volume was 319.29, an increase of 4.88. In terms of weight, Australian mine 6608.03
Dropped 10.68, Brazil mine 4995.90 increased 97.64; trade mine 8300.97 increased 50.71. (Unit: 10,000 tons)
This week, the capacity utilization rate of the coking plant was raised, and the inventory decreased:
This week, according to the statistics of the full sample of independent coke enterprises: the capacity utilization rate was 72.6%, an increase of 0.2%;coking coalThe total inventory increased by 10.6 to 969.5, and the usable days of coking coal increased by 0.1 days to 10.9 days.
【Industry situation】
On the supply side – crude steel production increased month-on-month in December:
According to data released by the Bureau of Statistics, in December 2022, China’s crude steel output was 77.89 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%; from January to December, China’s crude steel output was 1,013 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%.
According to customs statistics, China exported 5.401 million tons of steel in December 2022, a decrease of 189,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 3.4% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 7.5%; the cumulative export of steel products from January to December was 67.323 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% . In December, China imported 700,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 52,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 6.9% from the previous month, and a decrease of 30.1% from the same period last year; the cumulative imports from January to December
Steel products were 10.566 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%.
On the supply side – the operating rate of blast furnaces in steel mills has been raised:
On February 24, according to the survey, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.98%, an increase of 1.44% from last week, and an increase of 7.54% from last year; the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 86.97%, an increase of 1.22% from the previous month, and an increase of 9.36% from the same period last year.
On February 23, the weekly output of rebar in 139 building materials manufacturers across the country was 2.8217 million tons, an increase of 188,200 tons from last week and an increase of 86,200 tons from the same period last year.
On the supply side – the operating rate of electric furnace steel has been increased:
As of February 24, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country was 64.91%, a month-on-month increase of 3.94% and a year-on-year increase of 9.83%. Among them, the Central China and North China regions rose sharply, the East China, South China, and Southwest regions rose slightly, and the rest of the regions remained basically the same.
According to statistics, from February 20th to February 23rd, the national building materials transaction volume was 681,100 tons, and the transaction volume continued to rise.
Supply side—in-factory inventory and social inventory decrease and increase:
On February 23, according to the monitoring of 139 building materials manufacturers across the country, the inventory of rebar factories was 3.373 million tons, a decrease of 153,300 tons from last week and an increase of 165,900 tons from the same period last year.
According to statistics, on February 23, the construction steel warehouses in 35 major cities across the country were 9.1594 million tons, an increase of 38,200 tons from last week and a decrease of 493,400 tons from the same period last year.
【Downstream situation】
On the demand side – new housing starts fell by 39.4% year-on-year, and infrastructure investment increased year-on-year9.4%：
In 2022, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises will be 9,049.99 million square meters, a decrease of 7.2% over the previous year. The area of newly started housing was 1,205.87 million square meters, a decrease of 39.4%. The area of housing completed was 862.22 million square meters, a decrease of 15.0%.
From January to December 2022, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water) increased by 9.4% over the previous year. Among them, the investment in water conservancy management industry increased by 13.6%, the investment in public facilities management industry increased by 10.1%, the investment in road transportation industry increased by 3.7%, and the investment in railway transportation industry increased by 1.8%.
【Options Market】
To buy a shallow out-of-the-money call option:
With the gradual release of terminal demand, the demand for performance has rebounded significantly, and there is still a possibility of a rebound after the short-term steel price adjustment. Operationally, it is recommended to buy shallow out-of-the-money call options.
【Stock Market】
The steel sector index continued to move higher:
With the support of policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, the profits of steel mills can be expected, so steel and coal stocks are still worth buying. Shagang, Nangang, Shanxi Coking, and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended.
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