(Original title: Differentiation is coming! In October, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 75.2% year-on-year, but fuel vehicles declined. What is the situation? Experts judge: the replacement process has accelerated, and it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 8.4 million in 2023!)
The continuous increase in the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market is bound to dilute the market share of some fuel vehicles. The above phenomenon is particularly evident in the published passenger car sales data for October.
On November 8, the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association (hereinafter referred to as the “Passenger Association”) released the latest data. The retail sales of the passenger car market in October reached 1.84 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.3%. It is reported that this is the first time since 2013 that there has been a month-on-month decline in the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” auto sales season.
It is worth mentioning that in October, the differentiation between traditional fuel passenger vehicles and new energy passenger vehicles was also obvious. Among them, the retail sales of fuel passenger vehicles was 1.28 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8%; the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 556,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.2%, and the market penetration rate reached 30.2%, an increase of 11 percentage points from the same period last year.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Federation, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times e Company that the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will erode the market share of fuel vehicles. The automobile industry is an industry with particularly significant economies of scale. When the sales volume of new energy vehicles by major auto companies increases, the cost per vehicle will decrease accordingly. From the perspective of scale, the cost per vehicle of traditional fuel vehicles is already rising. This will have a negative impact on the expansion of the fuel vehicle market. Based on a comprehensive judgment, new energy vehicles have entered a stage of accelerated growth, and the process of replacing fuel vehicles is accelerating.
Sales of new energy vehicles may exceed 8.4 million in 2023
According to data from the Passenger Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 676,000 in October, an increase of 85.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The penetration rate reached 30.8%, an increase of 12 percentage points from the 18.4% penetration rate in October 2021 . Among them, Chinese independent brands contributed the vast majority of sales.
According to statistics, there were 15 car companies whose wholesale sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 10,000 units in October, and their sales accounted for 84.6% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles. Among them, BYD sold 217,500 vehicles in a single month; Tesla sold 71,700 vehicles, SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 52,100 vehicles, Changan Automobile sold 35,100 vehicles, and Geely Automobile sold 31,100 vehicles, ranking the top five in the list. .
In terms of new car-building forces, Nezha Auto, NIO, and Lili Automobile’s October deliveries all performed well, exceeding 10,000 units. Among them, Nezha’s October delivery volume reached 18,000 units, ranking first among new car-building forces. name.
Cui Dongshu analyzed that the improvement in the supply of new energy vehicles and the rise in oil prices have led to stronger orders for new energy vehicles.
At the same time, affected by factors such as the rising penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market, the sales of fuel passenger vehicles have declined in October, and the two have shown a trend of “one trade and another grow”. It can also be seen from the October production and sales express reports released by recently listed car companies that the “new” volume is a key factor in determining the overall trend of car companies’ sales.
On the evening of October 8, Jianghuai Automobile (600418) released the October production and sales report. During the reporting period, the company sold 40,500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.18%, of which the sales of pure electric passenger vehicles were about 17,100, a year-on-year increase of 53.59%.
Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238)’s October production and sales express report shows that the company sold 212,500 vehicles in the month, a year-on-year increase of 10.16%. Among them, new energy vehicles sold 33,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 135.2%.
Cui Dongshu told reporters that the overall gasoline consumption of passenger cars has crossed the peak, and will gradually decline in the future. It is preliminarily judged that the carbon peak of passenger cars has been achieved. At the same time, due to the expansion of the scale of new energy vehicles, the cost of new energy vehicles has already appeared, which will inevitably erode the market share of fuel vehicles, and the process of replacing fuel vehicles will be further accelerated. It may exceed 8.4 million vehicles per year.
Passenger car exports up 42% year-on-year in October
Data show that in October, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) under the statistical caliber of the China Passenger Transport Association were 270,000, a year-on-year increase of 42% and a month-on-month increase of 13%.
Among them, 103,000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported, accounting for 39% of the total exports. Specifically, in October, Tesla China exported 54,500 new energy vehicles, SAIC passenger cars exported 18,700 new energy vehicles, Dongfeng Easyjet exported 10,700 new energy vehicles, and BYD exported 9,529 new energy vehicles.
According to the October production and sales express reports of a number of listed car companies, car exports have become the “main force” of the sales growth of various car companies. Among them, SAIC Motor (600104) sold 772,300 vehicles in exports and overseas bases from January to October, up 46.06% year-on-year; Great Wall Motor (601633) sold 132,800 vehicles overseas, up 18.55% year-on-year.
Cui Dongshu revealed that from the monitoring of retail data in overseas markets of independent exports, SAIC and other independent brands performed strongly in Europe.
In his view, at present, the export of independent brands to the European and American markets and the third world market has made a comprehensive breakthrough, and the export strategy of international brands in China is also increasingly reflected.
However, Cui Dongshu also reminded that with the changes in the world economic situation, China’s export market may slow down under the influence of the high base level in the past, but car companies are still trying to increase export expansion efforts, and it is expected that the pull on the car market will still be greater. contribute.
On November 8, a symposium on the development of automobile overseas exports was held in Shanghai. At the meeting, the First Division of Equipment Industry stated that in recent years, the international competitiveness of my country’s automobile brands has continued to improve, and automobile exports have maintained rapid growth. The next step is to promote the high-level opening of the auto industry to the outside world. Strengthen inter-departmental coordination, promote the resolution of prominent problems such as high ocean freight and insufficient transportation capacity, organize the establishment of third-party public service platforms, strengthen coordination in the formulation of international standards and regulations, and create a better environment for the overseas export of automobiles.
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