Domestic soybean short-term short-term supply and demand weak futures short-term range shock finishing | soybean_Sina Finance_Sina

Source: Dayue Futures Author: Dayue Futures

Research report text

1. Fundamentals:U.S. soybeans rebounded in shock, U.S. soybean exports are expected to increase and technical buying support, short-term focus on U.S. soybean exports and South AmericasoybeanRegion weather. Domestic soybean bottomed out and rebounded,soybean mealThe callback is driven but the spot premium supports the bottom of the market, and the short-term technical buying supports but the high yield of domestic soybean suppresses the room for price rebound.

Domestic soybean production has increased this year to suppress the market. The short-term supply and demand of domestic soybeans in the spot market are weak, the domestic soybean production is expected to be suppressed, and farmers are reluctant to sell the game. The futures market maintains range shocks. neutral.

2. Basis:The spot price is 5900, the basis difference is 283, and the premium futures. too much.

3. Inventory:Soybean inventory was 2.6872 million tons, 2.8801 million tons last week, a decrease of 6.7% month-on-month, and 3.9785 million tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 32.46%. too much.

4. Disk surface:The price is below the 20-day EMA and the direction is down. Bearish.

5. Main positions:The main force’s long orders decreased, and the outflow of funds was on the high side.

6. Anticipation:Macro negative and China’s expected reduction in demand suppressed soybean prices. The increase in U.S. soybean exports and weather variables in South American soybean producing areas supported the market. The short-term South American soybean weather variables and macro bearish expectations interacted; the short-term supply and demand of domestic soybeans weakened, and the increase in domestic soybean production suppressed On the disk, however, the spot premium supports the bottom of the disk, and the short-term range shocks. Douyi A2301: oscillating between 5580 and 5680 within the day.

Bullish factors:

1. Domestic soybeans are harvested and put on the market, and farmers are reluctant to sell them;

2. The market has a price but no market, and the spot remains stable.

Negative factors:

1. The stockpiling of soybeans from the State Reserve continues, and the supply is relatively abundant;

2. Expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season.

Current logic:The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to improve. After the harvest of new soybeans increases, farmers are reluctant to sell and spot premiums support the market price. The November contract futures period is now returning to a range of shocks.

Main risk points:State soybean stockpiling and rotation storage situation, confirmation of domestic soybean production in the new season, the impact of the Fed’s interest rate hike and goose-black conflict, etc.

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