Downstream pre-holiday stocking is basically completed Methanol market trading performance is sluggish|Methanol_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Huarong Rongda Futures Author: Huarong Rongda Futures

Research report text

Market review:

January 16,MethanolThe MA2305 contract closed at 2,625 yuan/ton (-24,-0.91%), with a total open interest of 1,961,500 lots (-101,045) and 7,679 warehouse receipts, unchanged. Jiangsu 05 basis difference -10 yuan/ton (-2), 05-09 contract monthly difference -6 yuan/ton (-4).

Spot overview:

At the beginning of the week, the overall trading performance of the domestic methanol market was sluggish. Downstream pre-holiday stocking is basically completed, and upstream inventory pressure is controllable. As the Spring Festival approaches, transportation fleets and midstream and downstream industries are gradually shutting down and leaving the market. Trading in the mainland methanol market may gradually become weaker. Before the festival, it is mainly about contract execution, which needs attention The restart of the southwest gas head unit and the impact on the cost side; in terms of ports, the daily maintenance period is now linked to weakening. Under the background of sufficient subsequent arrivals and continued weakening of demand, the port methanol market is weak and volatile.

The market price in Jiangsu is 2,615 yuan/ton (-30); the market price in southern Shandong is 2,500 yuan/ton; the market price in Inner Mongolia is 2,040 yuan/ton; the market price in Henan is 2,510 yuan/ton.

Strategic advice:

Wait and see for now. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some traders are gradually withdrawing from the market to wait and see, combined with snowfall and other impacts, the turnover rate of transport capacity in various places will continue to decrease, and the actual order negotiations in the domestic methanol market will gradually fade away. Wait, the local upstream in the last week before the holiday does not rule out testing to push up expectations.

1. Futures market

2. Spot price and spread

3. Industrial chain profit

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