International gold maintained a volatile trend on Tuesday (February 21). The opening price was US$1841.34/oz, the highest price was US$1843.79/oz, the lowest price was US$1839.89/oz, and the closing price was US$1841.14/oz.
European Central Bank Governing Council Rehn said growth in 2023 could be around 1%. It is appropriate to (continue) to raise interest rates after March. The ECB may hit terminal rates in the summer. The euro zone is expected to avoid recession. Didn’t see a wage-price spiral.
Goldman Sachs analyzed that it raised its forecast for the ECB’s terminal interest rate to 3.5%, and it is expected that the stance of policy makers, including ECB executive member Schnabel, will be tougher. Goldman Sachs expects another 25 basis points in June from the ECB, whose deposit rate is currently at 2.5 percent, and policymakers have signaled their intention to raise rates by 50 basis points next month. Finally, Goldman Sachs said that a 50 basis point interest rate hike by the European Central Bank in May is “still possible”, but currently believes that a 25 basis point interest rate hike is more likely.
Bloomberg Global Chief Economist Tom Orlik (Tom Orlik) said that since the beginning of 2023, there are signs that the outlook for the global economy this year is just as expected. It now appears that Europe is expected to emerge from recession, the United States will experience a recession in the second half of this year, and China’s economy is showing a strong recovery. Regarding the US economy, Ole Eagle said that he is now very worried about a possible catastrophic debt default in the US. “Our estimates suggest that a loss of market confidence in the U.S. Treasury would have an extremely significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth and could even trigger a financial crisis.” ) shows that there is room for negotiation and that a crisis can be avoided. But given how deeply divided the U.S. Congress is, unfortunately, the possibility of a U.S. debt default cannot be ruled out.” Ole Eagle said.
Rabobank said sentiment towards the dollar improved in February following the release of strong U.S. economic data and is set to continue further. Strong U.S. labor market, inflation and retail sales data this month made it harder to ignore the Fed’s warnings that interest rates will remain high for longer, Jane Foley, currency strategist at Rabobank, said in a note. Given that the bank expects the FOMC to likely raise the upper end of the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.5%, they see room for the dollar to remain well supported mid-year.
Yesterday, because the U.S. market was closed, the volatility of gold was not large, with a maximum of 1847.42 and a minimum of 1836.9010 points. The 1848-1850 short order layout was almost given, and the long order layout was not given. I did not participate in the day; first of all, I will pay attention to it during the day The gains and losses in the 1850 area, the first focus on 1840 below, 1840 has not gone down yesterday, and the 1830 and 1820 areas below;
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