Fruit growers are reluctant to sell heavier apple futures at high prices | Fruit growers_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Research report text

For futures:

The main contract opened higher and moved higher, the 01 contract closed at 8204 yuan/ton, the price fell by 186 points, and the transaction volume decreased.

Inventory:

In the Shandong production area, the volume of cold storage transactions is very small, and fruit farmers are more reluctant to sell at high prices, and the volume of outbound storage is relatively small.In the western production area, there are few ground fruits in the western production area, and the transaction is gradually transferred from the ground fruit to the cold storage. Fruit-based, the main reason is that the new seasonappleThe proportion of small fruit is small, and some fruit farmers sell at a lower price.

Market outlook:

The overall performance of the current market is not good, and consumption is sluggish. According to the statistics of relevant organizations, the overall size of my country’s fresh food market in 2021 will be 5.21 trillion yuan. Among them, the national farmers’ market accounted for about 57% of the total transaction volume of the fresh food market; the transaction scale of fresh food e-commerce reached 465.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.92%, accounting for about 9% of the fresh food market; community supermarkets and chain stores accounted for About 30%.

It can be seen from the data that although the scale of fresh food e-commerce transactions has grown rapidly in recent years, it will only account for about 9% by 2021, indicating that the main force of fresh market transactions is still traditional farmers’ markets, chain supermarkets and community supermarkets. The trading volume of buyers accounts for nearly 90% of the fresh food market. According to the transaction volume of the wholesale market of the Ministry of Agriculture, the total transaction volume from January to October 2022 is 911,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.75%, which is far lower than that of previous years. The transaction volume of the wholesale market in October 2022 is 86,700 tons , a year-on-year decrease of 18.13%, indicating that the current consumption of apples is not good. The market outlook may be under pressure, but it is still necessary to pay close attention to the consumption situation.

Starting from December, the inventory and delivery progress may become the focus of everyone’s attention. The new season’s apple storage situation shows that the storage price is high, the storage progress is slow, the inventory is not low, and the overall consumer end is not good. The impact of output is gradually weakening, and the depletion rate of the storage volume and the status of the consumer end may become the focus of attention in the later stage.

During the acquisition period of the new season of Fuji apples, the sales volume in the market was poor, and the transaction volume in the wholesale market dropped significantly compared with last year or normal years; the current purchase of production areas in the country has basically come to an end, the price rose first and then fell, and the listing volume was relatively small. It is at a relatively high level in the past 9 years; in terms of new season storage, according to Zhuo Chuang’s data, as of December 1, the national apple inventory was 8.7684 million tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons from the previous month, only slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The month-on-month reduction in inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the delivery of fruits outside the warehouse last year and even in previous years is higher than this year, indicating that the current consumption is not good. Changes in inventory and post-consumption are the focus of attention. Given that the current overall consumption is not good and the storage price has increased significantly year-on-year, but the year-on-year decline in the new season’s storage volume is limited, it is expected that there will still be a large amount of inventory out of the warehouse in the later period. pressure.

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