Reposted from: Futures Daily
Judging from this week’s situation, the spot price of methanol in Taicang fluctuated in the range of 2600-2635 yuan/ton, while last week it fluctuated in the range of 2640-2680 yuan/ton, and the market adjusted slightly. The supply increased, the marginal change in demand was limited, and the gap between supply and demand widened; the inland inventory was allocated, and the port was accumulated; the unilateral drive was not obvious, and the spot market was sorted out within a narrow range.
Inventory trends diverge
Recently, there have been divergences in the trend of my country’s methanol inventory. Among them, the port inventory has gradually increased, and the mainland has taken the initiative to go to the warehouse. For this reason, the arbitrage window between the mainland and the port has continued to expand to above 600 yuan/ton, and some mainland supply has flowed into the port.
In the past seven weeks, port inventories have fluctuated and increased. As of now, my country’s total methanol port inventory is 644,100 tons, an increase of 79,900 tons from the previous period, and an increase of over 190,000 tons from the lowest value in the year (late October), but it is still at a low level this year and the same period in previous years. Judging from the arrival of ships in the next two weeks, it may continue to maintain the level of 280,000-340,000 tons, and at the same time, there will be an increase in the arrival of cargo in social warehouses. Looking forward to the market outlook, there is still a possibility of further increase in port inventory, so pay attention to the actual arrival of ships.
Although the mainland methanol companies have continued to actively discharge storage in the past three weeks, the cumulative decline is only about 35,000 tons. Overall, the storage still needs to be accelerated. As of now, the inventory of my country’s methanol sample production enterprises is 516,800 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, but it is still at a relatively high level this year and the same period in previous years. At present, there are only about 30 days left before the Chinese New Year. For this reason, mainland enterprises may continue to hold inventory.
Fundamentals are still not clearly driven
Although the natural gas-to-methanol plant in Southwest China continues to shut down, most coal-to-methanol plants are operating relatively stably, and Ningxia Kunpeng’s new 600,000-ton/year plant is expected to produce products, and some maintenance plants are gradually recovering, and methanol production in the Mainland may continue to increase. Although there are recent rumors that some coastal MTOs are planning to overhaul, the official has not confirmed that the load changes of coastal MTO installations may be limited in the short term. From the perspective of seasonal factors, the traditional downstream of methanol may gradually weaken. It is reported that Chongqing Wanlilai’s 100,000-ton/year dimethyl ether plant has been shut down for maintenance; Guangxi Jinyi’s 300,000-ton/year chloride plant is expected to be shut down; approaching New Year’s Day, the load of formaldehyde and other devices may gradually decrease.
In addition, the rainy and snowy weather is gradually increasing, and the year-end is approaching, and the increase in logistics and freight costs is expected to offset significantly.
To sum up, although the macro policy is positive, the substantial support of real estate and other terminal industries may be limited before the end of the year, and the mainland’s active destocking and port accumulation are expected to still exist. In the absence of unexpected factors, my country’s methanol market will Or focus on the weak sorting, and pay attention to the impact of downstream holiday time and foreign gas restrictions on import expectations from January to February. (Author unit: Longzhong Information)
Editor: Wu Zhengsi
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