Inflation, Confcommercio estimates an increase of 0.5% in May and a value of 7.8% on an annual basis
After the rebound in April the iinflation is expected to return to the path of progressive return. The study office writes it Confcommerce in his periodic analysis on the economic situation, estimating an increase in the month of May 0,5% economic situation and a growth of 7,8% in the annual comparison. “The performance of recent months, less favorable than expected, continues to reflect the turbulence still affecting the energy market and the progressive transfer to the final phase of the tensions that had accumulated in the previous months” concludes the analysis.
Confcommercio, slightly growing consumption supported by foreign tourism
As of April 2023 theConfcommercio Consumption Indicator (ICC) showed an increase of 0.2% on the same month of 2022. The Confcommercio research office writes it in its periodic analysis on the situation, explaining that the figure is a synthesis of an increase in demand for services (+4.5%) and a decrease in that relating to goods (-1.5%). Families continue, beyond the critical issues induced by inflation on family budgets, along the path of recovery in demand, favoring those items of expenditure which they consider most representative of the newfound ‘freedom’.
Also in April 2023 household demand was mainly supported by the recovery of the component relating to services (+4.5% compared to the same month in 2022), a situation also favored by the progressive improvement in the foreign tourism. Confcommercio reports that “for many services (recreational, hotel and catering) the exceptional fall recorded in 2020 has not yet been recovered, as the percentage distance with the volumes recorded in the same period of 2019 still exceeds two digits”.
With regard to the consumption of goods, after the stagnation in March, demand has returned to registering a downsizing in the year-on-year comparison. In April, the estimate for the aggregate indicates -0,4%. the sector ofautomotive it is confirmed as the most dynamic, with a trend variation of 16.9%. The recoveries of the last few months have, however, only partially reduced the gap with the real spending levels of 2019. Among the other items, the demand for electricity confirms a clear reduction, in the annual comparison (-7.0% ), for furniture (-7.8%), for food (-3.0%) and for household appliances (-0.8%). With regard to clothing and footwear, the modest sign of recovery (+0.7% on April 2022) does not mitigate the sector’s difficulties.
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