ROME – Real estate sales have slowed by 7.7 percent, but prices have risen by 1.9 percent: this is the biggest rise since 2010. The year of Covid has had an accelerating effect on prices of homes, Istat notes: the North had the greatest increases, followed by the South and the Islands, while in Central Italy prices remained stable. The trend concerns both old homes and new buildings, with slight differences: on average, in 2020, the prices of new homes recorded a + 2.1% and those of existing homes (which weigh more than 80%). % on the aggregate index) of 1.9%. However, the increase in prices is not such as to recover the decline of the last ten years: compared to the 2010 average, in fact, in 2020 house prices decreased by 15.0% (-21.6% for existing houses , + 3.6% for the new ones). In the last quarter of the year there was also a very sustained recovery in sales volumes, which grew by 8.8 per cent on an annual basis.
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by Raffaele Ricciardi
According to preliminary Istat estimates, in the fourth quarter of 2020 the price index of houses purchased by families, for housing or investment purposes, increased by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 1.6% compared to the same period of 2019 (it was + 1.0% in the third quarter of 2020). The trend increase is due both to the prices of new houses which grew by 1.7%, slowing compared to the previous quarter (when the change was + 3.0%), and to the prices of existing houses which increased by 1.4%, accelerating compared to the third quarter of 2020 (it was + 0.7%). In comparison with the previous quarter, on the other hand, the increase (+ 0.3%) is due solely to the prices of existing homes, which recorded an increase of 0.3%, while those of new homes decreased by 0.3%. In the fourth quarter, the trend growth in house prices on an annual basis is driven by the South and the Islands (+ 3.0%); prices grow but less markedly in the North-West and North-East (respectively + 1.7% and + 1.8%) and slightly in the Center (+ 0.2%).
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by Raffaele Ricciardi
There are strong differences between the cities. In the fourth quarter in Milan, house prices rose by 7.4% on an annual basis, confirming sustained growth, although decelerating compared to the previous quarter (it was + 12.0%). The performance of Milan is very different from that of the other cities: in fact it records a growth in prices for the fifth consecutive year, thanks above all to the prices of new homes. In Turin, prices continue to grow weakly (+ 0.8% from + 0.2% in 2019) thanks to existing homes (+ 1.2%) while the prices of new homes show a marked decline (-2.2% ) after three years of growth. Also for Rome there is an increase in prices equal to 0.8% after three years of declines. Compared to 2010, Rome shows the highest drop (-27.5%) which, for existing homes, stands at almost 30%.
The increase in prices, however, notes Luca Dondi dell’Orologio, CEO of Nomisma and expert on the real estate market, is not so much about big cities, it is rather the effect “of a part of the demand that has shifted from the metropolis to the small towns: “We do not see the rise in prices, on the contrary in the big cities there are signs of decline, also due to the reduction in transactions which in Milan alone in 2020 was 20 percent”. And then there is a another fear: “Surely there was an acceleration during the second half of 2020, to recover the stop of the lockdown, but perhaps there was too much optimism with respect to the market’s capabilities, a good part of this demand is supported by credit banking, and confidence in repayment expectations. But perhaps the difficulties of families due to the pandemic have been underestimated “.
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