Slight increase in domestic GDP: towards +0.8% in 2023. But in 2024 Italy is the EU country with the lowest growth
In the 2024 Italy will be the EU country with the lower economic growth, all’1%, while in 2023 Sweden will be the only country to show the minus sign, with -0.8%. This is what emerges from the winter economic forecasts published by the European Commission. On the other side of the scaleIreland and Malta will be the EU countries to grow the most in both 2023 and 2024, respectively by 4.9% and 3.1% for this year and by 4.1% and 3.7% for the next.
For what concern 2023, the other countries that will register the greatest growths will be Romania (2.5%), Luxembourg (1.7%), Cyprus (1.6%), Slovakia (1.5%), Bulgaria and Spain (1.4% ), Greece (1.2%). Germany and France are below 1% with GDP growth of 0.2% and 0.6% respectively. Average growth in 2023 among Eurozone countries will be 0.9% while among the Twenty-seven it will be 0.8%. As for 2024, none of the Twenty-seven will report a minus sign in front of the growth figure. Romania will be third, with a growth of 3%. Followed by Estonia (2.8%), Latvia (2.7), Hungary (2.6%), Bulgaria. Lithuania and Poland (2.5%), Greece (2.2%), Spain, Slovenia and Slovakia (2%). France will be at 1.4% and Germany at 1.3%.
Il Italian GDP is expected to grow by an average of 0.8% in real terms in 2023: the data are up compared to last autumn which attested a growth of 0.3% for Italy for 2023 (1.1% for 2024). According to the EU executive, Italian economic production is grew by 3.9% in 2022, up slightly from the 3.8% forecast last fall, and was driven by domestic demand, especially property investment. “The strong increase in energy prices in the second half of the year, however, led to a marked slowdown in private consumption and business investment, in a context of rising financing costs”, reads the Commission documents.
Based on forecast data, the net exports they are expected to evade GDP growth in both 2022 and 2023. In 2024, they are projected to become slightly supportive, as exports of goods and services should benefit from an improved international trade outlook and still recovering tourism flows. Coupled with moderately expanding domestic demand, real GDP growth is projected to reach 1.0% in 2024.
“The Italian economyafter a ‘marginal’ contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022, is expected to ‘gradually recover'” during 2023 and should be able to “avoid a technical recession”: according to the European Commissioner for the Economy Paul Gentiloniat a press conference in Brussels.
Italian GDP on the rise: towards +0.8% in 2023. Inflation continues to run
“Inflation is increased significantly In the 2022, fueled by the sharp rise in energy prices. It is estimated that he reached the peak in the fourth quarter, with an average of 8.7% over the whole year, in line with what the autumn forecasts claimed. While international energy commodity prices have mostly fallen to 2021 levels, their increase has spread to producer and retail prices of food, industrial goods and eventually services. The increase of inflation in the second half of 2022 will be reflected in 2023, but base effects are expected to help reduce the annual rate to 6.1%”, explained the Commission. A given in decline compared to the 6.6% expected in the autumn for 2023. Finally, for Brussels “wage dynamics still contained, given the slow process of renewing collective agreements and the very partial indexation mechanism, as well as an expected stabilization of raw material prices support the forecast of the inflation rate at 2.6% in 2024”, slightly up on to 2.3% expected in the autumn. According to Brussels, “inflation Of base And destined a go out in 2023 for then go back gradually until 2024”.
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