“In 2021, according to UPB estimates, the growth of the Italian economy could be well above the forecasts of a few months ago, reaching almost 6 per cent; in the first half of next year, our country could recover pre-existing activity levels. COVID-19”. This is what is stated in the August economic note of the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB). Thanks to the progress made in vaccination campaigns, the recovery of the world economy and trade has been consolidated. According to the August economic note, the speed and intensity of the recovery appear to be closely correlated with the availability of vaccines and therefore the more developed areas such as the United States or Europe benefit more.
Overall, the note states, it is estimated that this year GDP would increase by 5.8%; productive activity would be supported by domestic demand, which still benefits from an expansionary budget policy. In 2022, GDP would slow down (to 4.2%), but would continue to be driven by measures financed with the public budget and with the European funds of the Recovery Plan. “Based on estimates made by the PBO, the full and effective use of NGEU resources would raise GDP by about two percentage points by next year. The Italian economy would return to values close to those recorded before the pandemic in the first half. of 2022 “, reads again in the monthly note.