Source: Southwest Futures Author: Southwest Futures
Research report text
【ethylene glycol】
On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol 2305 fell by 0.68%. The spot price in the East China market was 4090 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of -0.27%.
On the supply side, the overall start-up load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 59.83% (up 0.34% from the previous period), of which the start-up load of coal-to-ethylene glycol was 60.90% (up 0.33% from the previous period). The load of Zhongke Refining & Chemical’s 500,000-ton plant is around 60-70%, Zhejiang Petrochemical is lifting the load, Shenghong Refining & Chemical is shutting down, and restart is pending. A 830,000-ton/year MEG plant in the United States is scheduled to heat up and restart at the end of this month.
In terms of demand, the polyester load is at 88.3%, and downstream polyester demand is slowly recovering, and terminal orders have increased slightly from the previous month. In terms of inventory, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 1.102 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous period. From March 13th to March 19th, the MEG main port plans to arrive at 105,000 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous month. On March 13th, the MEG shipment volume of a mainstream storage area in Zhangjiagang is around 2,300 tons, and the MEG shipments from two mainstream storage areas in Taicang The volume is around 7,700 tons, and the shipments are slowly picking up.
On the whole, there have been many restarts of ethylene glycol plants recently, and the supply has continued to increase. However, the load of downstream polyester factories and looms has remained high, and this week’s inventory has been reduced slightly.
In the medium term, ethylene glycol will gradually enter centralized maintenance at the end of March or early April. In the medium term, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand will also pick up slightly. Therefore, in the medium and long term, ethylene glycol will rebound in stages. It is recommended to wait for the callback to stabilize before deploying multiple orders, and pay attention to the continued recovery of terminal demand and the changes in crude oil prices at the cost side.
strategy: After waiting for the callback to stabilize, it will be possible to lay out more orders.
【PTA】
On the previous trading day, the PTA2305 contract fell by 3.11%, and the spot price in the East China market was 5,800 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.24%.
On the supply side, the PTA load was adjusted to around 71.5%, a drop from the previous month, and the supply side was more cautious. The load of a 1.2 million-ton PTA plant in the northwest remained at 80-90%. It is estimated that the subsequent full-load operation will drop to around 50% since the beginning of March; the load of a 4.5 million-ton PTA plant in South China will increase, and the plant will maintain a 50% load in the early stage.
On the demand side, the polyester load has increased to around 88.3%. The overall production and sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and the average estimate is slightly lower than 40%.
In terms of cost, the processing fee of PTA internal disk is 521.01 yuan/ton, and the processing fee continues to rise, which is at a relatively high position. The start-up of PTA factories is also gradually increasing. Recently, the shock of Brent crude oil has been weak, and the cost support has weakened.
To sum up, PTA processing fees have continued to rise recently, PTA maintenance may be reduced or postponed, upstream PX profits are high, international crude oil prices fluctuate weakly, and cost-side support is insufficient. The demand performance is acceptable, but the export performance is weak, and the impetus to increase demand in the later stage is insufficient. PTA lacks further boost in the short term, and there is a risk of continued decline. It is recommended to short on rallies, focusing on changes in energy prices and news.
strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies.
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