Just one month after 2023, various data reports about 2022 have also been released one after another, and one of the reports that Tony is more concerned about is about domestic smartphone shipments.
The result is not surprising. According to Canalys data, smartphone shipments in 2022 will drop by 14% year-on-year to only 284 million units, the first time in nearly 10 years that they will fall below 300 million units.
Among them, except for Honor, which took over the position of Huawei’s big brother, and its shipments increased by 30% and Guozige’s weak growth of 4%, other mainstream brands with the highest share have declined. . .
And some time ago, Tony got a piece of news, saying that the replacement cycle of domestic consumers has been extended to 34 months, and in foreign countries, a mobile phone can last for 43 months. . .
In other words, people generally have no desire to change phones now, or the overall mobile phone market environment is relatively sluggish, which has been certified by these data.
At first, I thought it might just be the domestic market. After all, the machine-sea tactics and serious involution made the market share more or less saturated.
But I took a look at the overseas mobile phone market out of curiosity, and found that things are not going well abroad. . .
For example, in India, another major consumer market in the world, according to Counterpoint’s data analysis, smartphone shipments in 2022 will be 9% lower than last year, reaching 152 million units.
Even if we and India are already exporting crazily, the annual smartphone shipments in 2022 will only be 1.21 billion units, which is the lowest year since 2013.
Especially in the fourth quarter of 2022 that just passed, global smartphone shipments fell by 18.3% year-on-year, which is simply a drop. . .
So when you see this, you should know that although Guozige’s iPhone sales are among the best all year round, the reason for the price reduction promotion has recently started, because the sales volume is really not as good as before. . .
But when the information was found here, the questions in Tony’s mind became more and more: Isn’t the sales volume declining? Then why are mobile phones getting more and more expensive now, and all of them are hitting the high end. Isn’t it true that fewer people buy it?
However, the fact is quite the opposite. At first glance, global smartphone sales are declining, but if you look at the market share, you will find that the share of the most expensive high-end smartphones is not falling but rising. . .
It sounds a little abstract, but Tony just needs to give you some data and you’ll know what’s going on.
For example, in the second quarter of 2022, the share of smartphones priced at more than US$400 (about 2,715 yuan) in China will increase from 31% in the same period last year to 33%.
More than 2,700 yuan is also divided into many price ranges. When you subdivide the high-end price range again, you will find that the higher the price of the smartphone, the greater the share increase. . .
For example, the share of flagship mobile phones priced at more than US$800 (about 5,429 yuan) rose from 25% to 36%.
And this price of more than 5,000 yuan is also the standard flagship mobile phone price that people usually recognize.
According to Tony’s experience, blindly guessing here, Guozige’s iPhone 13 series and Blue Factory’s X80 series contributed a lot of high-end shares, and other brands followed suit.
China is not the only country whose high-end market share has risen instead of falling, and India next door has also grown against the trend. . .
In India’s smartphone share for the whole year in 2022, smartphones priced above INR 30,000 (approximately 2,461 yuan) contributed 11% of the market share. This is the first time that the share of India’s high-end smartphone market has reached double digits .
Moreover, this 11% market share accounts for 35% of the annual revenue in 2022, which is also a new high in history.
There is also a very interesting data, which shows the brand share of the Indian smartphone market.
As a result, Tony saw it, good guy, they are all old acquaintances. . .
But if you look at it based on revenue share rather than pure market share, at this time there will suddenly be a dark shadow among the “other” brands rushing to the second place, and it is Guozige. . .
And this data is very scary. Although the sales volume is ten blocks behind that of Samsung, which ranks first, it can account for 18% of the revenue, squeezing a bunch of domestic brands to the back.
Not only China and India, but the share of high-end smartphones all over the world is rising, and the more expensive the higher the share.
Overall shipments are down, but the share of high-end smartphones is rising again. It sounds a bit outrageous, but it is the truth.
So when you see this, you should understand why Xiaomi is determined to hit the high end. . .
In the past, the purpose of attacking the high-end may be to prove one’s own strength, but now of course the reason for hitting the high-end is because the flagship machine can make a lot of money.
Not only Xiaomi, but other domestic manufacturers have noticed this, so in the past two years, they have seized the time to rush higher. For example, Blue Factory, which will launch two consecutive X80 and X90 in 2022, is one of the brightest representatives.
So is it useful to go high? Absolutely.
For example, when the share of most mobile phone brands is declining throughout 2022, even if Guozige grows against the trend, Blue Factory’s share in China is still the first, and it has not dropped much compared to 2021.
And if you take a closer look at another quarter, you will find that Blue Factory’s share in the high-end smartphone market has doubled and skyrocketed, ranking only behind Apple (although the difference is far away).
Therefore, no matter from the perspective of income or market share, hitting the high-end market is a must.
Although the cost-effective route and machine-sea tactics are of great value, they are not a long-term solution. . .
Now there is also a more polarized situation, that is, the poor are increasingly unable to afford new mobile phones, while the rich are happy to buy new mobile phones. . .
Of course, this is a very inappropriate example, but the current mobile phone market is indeed more friendly to people with considerable income.
From another perspective, the price increase is not a unique phenomenon in the mobile phone market. A fact that makes everyone even more cardiac arrest is——
The vast majority of technological digital products are increasing in price. . .
Last month, Tony saw someone complaining at Station B that the price of motherboards has risen. The B-series motherboards, which were once available for less than 1,000 yuan, have now come to a price of 1,500 yuan.
Tony didn’t quite believe it at first, but then he took out the motherboard he bought on Double Eleven in 2020 and saw that it was indeed not that expensive back then. . .
Although the materials and other aspects of the motherboard are also improving, the price increase is also real.
As for the graphics card, let alone the 2070 Super and the 3070Ti with a starting price of 3,999 yuan and 4,499 yuan, although the prices have risen, they are also within a reasonable range. After all, the performance has also followed.
But when it comes to 4070Ti, the initial price jumps directly to the abstract 6499 yuan. . .
Although these price-increasing digital products have improved both in workmanship and performance, whether consumers can afford them is another matter.
Oh, by the way, the 40 series of notebook computers that will be released one after another in the recent period will increase in price more or less without accident, but manufacturers are welcome to slap me in the face.
So the current situation is such that if you want to buy better products, you need to spend more money than before.
If so, isn’t a poor man like Tony not worthy of shopping?
Matching is matching, and there are cheap things, but now the manufacturers’ knives are more exquisite than the other, and the function and price are usually only one of the two.
But in the face of loss-making earnings and an ever-squeezed market, that’s likely to remain the case for a while.
People who are not well-off at hand can only fall into the “vicious circle” of extending the replacement cycle, or buy low-cost equipment for use.
How long this situation can last, Tony himself can’t tell, but I still hope that everyone will do what they can and buy products on demand.
If it doesn’t work, there is still a huge second-hand market waiting for everyone. . .