On February 25, voters in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, will vote to choose the next presidentin a climate of growing unhappiness of the population due to the constant insecurity and financial difficulties.
From high inflation to deadly attacks by gunmen on civilians, over the course of his two governments, the outgoing president, Muhammadu Buhari, has seen Nigeria face various crises. His supporters say the president has done the best of him and highlight his achievements, such as the launch of infrastructure projects and efforts to fight violent extremism. But in general, citizens do not feel satisfied with the work done by the president in recent years.
The electoral context
The context in which the largest sub-Saharan economy goes to vote is complex. First, we find the juxtaposition of forces that undermine the country’s security.
I militant Islamist groups continue their destabilizing attacks in the northeast, while banditry e violence they are increasingly prevalent in the Northwest. If the tensions between farmers and shepherds affect the center of the country, theseparatist agitation it is felt in the south. The attacks and sabotage of oil infrastructure are persistent, themaritime insecurity characterizes the territorial waters and the police violence involves the whole country.
The consequences of insecurity and violence are considerable: Africa Center estimates indicate that, in 2022, 10,000 Nigerians died due to violent attacks e There are 5,000 confirmed kidnappings.
The security crisis is aggravated by the corruption and the abuse of public resources allocated to security. Public funds are provided to federal, state and local government officials, who disburse them at their discretion, so much so that Transparency International estimates that “secret and unaccounted for cash expenditures” amount to more than $670 million annually.
In addition to the violence, life for Nigerians is made difficult by the growing inflation which, at the end of 2022, exceeded 21%. Although the GDP has seen a recoveryafter the setback due to Covid-19, growing by 3.5% in the first three quarters of 2022, the recovery does not translate into direct benefits for the population (last year, almost half of the 200 million Nigerians lived on less than $1.90 a day).
The country’s main growth engine – the oil sector – does not usually benefit most Nigerians in terms of jobs (unemployment is 33%) and business opportunities.
Candidates for elections in Nigeria
On February 25, voters will have to choose the successor of Buhari, who can no longer run as a candidate, having completed his two terms permitted by the Constitution. This is an important aspect of the upcoming elections and one that has often been overlooked. Unlike what has happened in recent years in other African countries, Buhari has not changed the Constitution or sought alternative ways to stay in power beyond what is legally permitted.
In addition to the president, the 109 members of the will be elected Senate and the 360 of the House of Representativeswhile on March 11, 31 of the 36 will be renewed state governors.
18 candidates show up to hold the highest office in the state, but only three have a realistic chance of winning, according to polls. In particular, two establishment candidates and one up-and-comer are the favourites to replace 80-year-old Buhari.
Former Governor of Lagos State (South West Region), Ahmed Tinubu ballis the bishop ofAll Progressives Congress (APC), ruling party. Business man known for remodeling the commercial hub of Lagos, he is the figure chosen by Buhari to inherit his political vision, having been one of his main supporters in the last presidential elections.
But there is a problem that should not be underestimated: Tinubu has 70 years old and his state of health is precarious, as it was for Buhari who, in the last years of government, has for this reason been absent from the political scene several times. According to some experts, this could affect popular support for the PCA.
Six-time candidate and runner-up behind Buhari in 2019, Atiku Abubakar is the leader of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). It comes from the state of Borno, in the northeastern region. Eternal second, we’ll see if it will be like this again this year. He has been attending for more than thirty years the heights of public life: Was a senior government official, vice president, and prominent businessman, making his fortune in the oil industry.
His campaign builds on his achievements as vice president (1999-2007), when, as head of the government’s economic team, he oversaw successful reforms in the telecommunications, pensions and banking sectors, promoting employment and GDP growth. However, like Tinubu, Abubakar is also in his seventies and it represents a continuity in the consolidated structures of the partydespite never having been president of the country.
The surprise factor of the Labor Party
A new development in the 2023 election cycle is the emergence of another serious challenger: Peter Obisuccessful entrepreneur and former governor of Anambra State (South-East Region), presidential candidate for the Labor Party.
He can really be the novelty among the old parties, with a pool of supporters mainly represented by the under-30 and digital native audience who has carried out the #EndSARS protests and who uses Twitter and Instagram as his main channels to spread his dissent. Obi is successful in this generation of protest because he has a clean record and, unlike the other two, not investigated for corruption or overwhelmed by political scandals.
Obi’s popularity also has a ethnic-religious key: and of Igbo ethnic group (like only two other presidents in the history of independent Nigeria), the third group in the country, after Hausa and Yoruba. Furthermore, it is of christian faithunlike the other two candidates and former president Buhari, all Muslims: if Tinubu or Abubakar were to win, for another four years, the government would be led by a Muslim in a country where half the population is Christian.
Peter Obi can be the surprise, although he probably lacks the national popularity to win an election. In particular, he is not very popular in the Northern states, Muslims and ethnic Hausa-Fulani, often considered to tip the electoral balance.
Ethnic, geographical and religious fault lines
Historically Nigerian parties have alternated candidates from the North and the South, recognizing the fragile Muslim-Christian composition and the ethnic and geographical diversity of the country. Elections are not won so much for the ideas of the contenders, but rather thanks to the personality of the candidates and the ethnic-regional configurations at stake. Usually political alternations leave room for ethnographic onesseeking a balance between all the components of the diverse Nigerian people.
Geographically, the APC followed this course, presenting Tinubu, who came from the South, as the successor of Buhari, who had northern roots. Instead, with Abubakar originally from the North, the PDP is ignoring this rule. All three leaders are joined by a vice presidential candidate from the opposite geographic area.
The PCA, on the other hand, is breaking another convention: guaranteeing religious balance on the ballot paper. Indeed, Tinubu, a Muslim, has chosen as his running mate for the vice presidency the former governor of Borno State, Kashim Shettima, another Muslim. Norma respected instead by Abubakar who is flanked by Ifeanyi Okowa, a Christian and current governor of the Delta State, and by Obi, flanked by Yusuf Datti Baba, a Muslim from the North.
What to expect on February 25th
Presidential candidates must win 50% of the vote nationwide and 25% of the vote in at least 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states to ensure victory. If no one reaches the majority in the first round, the top two finishers will face each other in a second round of balloting. Given the competitiveness of this year’s race, it’s a real possibility and it would be a first for Nigeria.
Even if the PCA and PDP benefit from established voter mobilization infrastructure and experience, the election will be competitive and the outcome unpredictable – yet another demonstration of the country’s democratic progress. What’s more, the fact that every parliamentary seat and nearly every state government is at stake portends potentially significant changes in leadership at all levels.
According to the National Election Commission, they have added themselves to the electoral roll in recent months 10 million new voters75% of them young. In a country where the median age is 18 and over 40% of registered voters are under 35, young people will be an important boost.
At the end of 2020, they had mobilized the #EndSARS protests, demanding a reform of the police system, and today they are motivated
Turnout in Nigerian elections is generally low, but analysts say the country’s economic woes, as well as growing insecurity, could get more people to vote, especially young peoplewith the hope of a change.
In short, the elections will be an important test on several levels and objectives. Furthermore, they must make it possible to identify and give the new Nigerian leader the political legitimacy and ideological vision necessary to allow one of Africa’s most vital countries to chart a new course and face the economic and security challenges of the near future.
*Article by Armando D’Amaro, author Africa of Lo Spiegone
Cover photo EPA/Akintunde Akinleye