On November 30, Longi’s official website adjusted the official quotation of monocrystalline silicon wafers. The price of silicon wafers of all sizes dropped by 0.41 yuan/piece-0.67 yuan/piece, a drop of 7.2%-9.8%.
On December 1st, the photovoltaic sector diverged. As of the close,Longi sharesA drop of nearly 4%, and the Zhonghuan stocks fell more than 6%.Solar energy、IgorDaily limit,Jinko TechnologyIncreased by more than 5%.
According to the agency, the leader in the photovoltaic industry took the lead in lowering the price of silicon wafers. Overall, it is in line with expectations. The actual transaction price of silicon wafers in the first two weeks has dropped significantly, and the price spread to the module will stimulate the increase in terminal demand, and the corresponding module cost will drop by 7-8 points. /W, it is expected that a large number of projects will enter the “installable” cost range, effectively stimulating the demand for installation at the end of the year, and marginally benefiting the annual revenue/profit of the inverter and power station EPC business.
The demand side is under pressure, and the expectation of price cuts in the industry chain is getting stronger
The weakness on the demand side puts greater shipment pressure on the upstream silicon wafer segment.Everbright SecuritiesIt is believed that after October this year, the upstream (silicon, wafer) prices will further increase, and the high price of the industrial chain will make global photovoltaic module installations weak. In the third quarter, the demand for installed modules in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be strong in the superimposed module link, which will accumulate a certain amount of inventory. Two factorsBatteryThe resumption of the film link brings greater pressure.
Guojin SecuritiesIt is also pointed out that the price of the industry chain has continued to rise this year to test the price tolerance limit of marginal demand, and it is basically proved after the price of silicon materials reaches 270,000 yuan/ton and the price of components reaches more than 2 yuan.
Supply chain prices have recently loosened.According to the data of PV Infolink, the price of photovoltaic supply chain has been loosened in the context of pressure on demand last week.BatteryThe prices of chips and components have dropped to a certain extent.Guojin SecuritiesIt is believed that the recent pace and sequence of price changes in the industrial chain are fully in line with the price transmission relationship determined by the operation law of the photovoltaic industry and the current supply and demand pattern and profitability of each link.
Silicon quotations in December are expected to usher in a new wave of declines.Guojin SecuritiesIt is believed that considering the current price adjustment of LONGi silicon wafers, under the current silicon material price of 26-27w, the marginal production capacity of silicon wafers may be close to the break-even point. . On the other hand, as the supply pressure of Tongwei and GCL-Poly silicon materials is released after their production capacity is released, silicon material quotations in December are also expected to usher in a new wave of decline.
Falling prices affect geometry
Low inventory impairment risk。National moneySecuritiesSaid that the core logic that the supply bottleneck determines the installed capacity will still be maintained, but due to the large backlog of “delayed” demand this year, the off-season in Q1 next year is basically a high probability event. Before the silicon material production capacity is released in Q2 next year, the price of raw materials will be fast. The possibility of a decline and the resulting inventory impairment risk are very low.
The profit margin of the downstream links improved.Downstream prices are good forBatteryThe profit restoration of chips and components will increase its operating rate, and marginally benefit the annual revenue/profit of the inverter and power station EPC business.
The improvement in terminal demand has positively stimulated the scale of installed capacity.According to the price adjustment of LONGi’s silicon wafers this time, the corresponding component-side cost has dropped by 7-8 cents/W. It is expected that a large number of projects will enter the “installable” cost range, effectively stimulating the demand for rush installation at the end of the year. In addition, Germany, the United States and other places have introduced active policies to support the development of photovoltaics, and the domestic/global installed capacity reached 50-60/160 GW with a certainty increase in the whole year.
Investment Strategy
National moneySecurities：The high market sentiment and optimistic expectations of the photovoltaic sector in the early stage have been cooled to a certain extent in the recent market hot spots. It is currently the layout of the sector next year.PerformanceAn ideal time window for realizing certainty, but the fierce price competition in the industry chain exceeding expectations is a risk factor.
Everbright SecuritiesIt is recommended to pay attention to industry leaders in three areas:
(1) The profitability of integrated enterprises is expected to improve, and there is no need to worry too much about the targets of leading enterprises’ inventory pressure;
(2) Benefiting from the expected restoration of “quantity”, those who do not participate in the price game of the crystalline silicon industry chainInverter and auxiliary materialsWill benefit first;
(3) Distributed photovoltaic projects are expected to be the first to increase volume and continue to be optimisticNew Energy OperatorInvestment opportunities.
Individual stock allocation
Trina Solar(688599.SH)：The proportion of large size continues to increase, and distributed shipments achieve high growth
① The world’s leading provider of integrated photovoltaic smart energy solutions. Photovoltaic products include monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon-based photovoltaic modules.
② In the first three quarters, the total operating income was 31.265 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%;Net profit1.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.05%.
③ Rapid expansion of large-size production capacity and a high proportion of large-size production capacity; distributed shipments have achieved high growth, which is expected to build a new growth point for the company’s performance in the future.
JA Technology(002549.SZ)：Full industry chain business + third-quarter performance exceeded expectations + actively enter the BIPV market
① The industry’s leading provider of photovoltaic products has built the entire industry chain business including silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells, photovoltaic modules, photovoltaic power plants, etc. The performance of the three quarterly reports exceeded expectations, and the shipments continued to grow.
② Release the fixed increase plan, and plan to raise 5 billion yuan for silicon wafer expansion and HJT new technology research and development.
③ andOriental YuhongReached a strategic cooperation to comprehensively promote the development of BAPV/BIPV business.
Sungrow(300274.SZ)：Leading photovoltaic inverter + energy storage business grows steadily
① Actively lay out overseas markets, and the inverter has a prominent position as the leader. The company’s core product, photovoltaic inverters, has obvious advantages in the market, and the photovoltaic inverter business has a stable market share in many overseas regions.
② The energy storage business has steadily improved, and advanced technology reserves lead the industry.
Jinko Technology(601778.SH)： “Asset-light” operation strategy + distributed impact scale benefits the entire county
① The company puts forward the “asset-light” operation strategy. In 2021, the company will accelerate its independent operation and maintenance business, increase the scale of external agency maintenance business, and increase the proportion of operation and maintenance business revenue.
① The company has strong competitiveness in the field of distributed photovoltaics. As of now, it has an operating scale of 800MW, benefiting from the “county-wide promotion”. In the future, it will focus on key areas to carry out the demonstration application for distributed rooftop development of the whole county.
(Report source: National FinanceSecurities、Everbright Securities、Huaan Securities; The information in this article does not constitute any investment advice. The content published is from a licensed securities institution and does not represent the platform’s views. Investors are requested to make independent judgments and decisions. )
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
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