Since November,RebarThe 2301 contract reversed the sharp drop after the National Day and rebounded sharply from below 3,400 yuan/ton. In the past two weeks, it successfully recovered the short-term moving average and stood above the 3,700 yuan/ton mark. The main driver is multiple benefits from the macro level, but there are still hidden worries in its own supply and demand.
Judging from the global macro background, the market atmosphere has picked up significantly in the past two weeks, giving the commodity market a basis for a collective rebound. Since November, domestic macroeconomics have also been positive, such as the issuance of local government special bonds in some provinces ahead of schedule for next year, the further optimization of domestic epidemic prevention policies, and the introduction of the “Sixteen Points” of financial support policies for the real estate market.
Specifically, on November 1, the Ministry of Finance issued in advance the new government debt limit of Fujian Province in 2023 of 103.4 billion yuan, an increase of 33.9% over the previous year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, my country’s infrastructure investment increased by 8.7% year-on-year. In fact, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has remained relatively stable this year, partly making up for the drag on demand from the continued decline in real estate investment growth. The issuance of about 93% of the task, from July to September, the issuance of new bonds nationwide has shrunk significantly, mainly due to the transmission of the previous issuance quota to the infrastructure field. As the Ministry of Finance began to release the quota for next year one month earlier than in previous years, although it cannot be quickly converted into practical volume in the short term, infrastructure investment will still be supported from the midline.
On November 12, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Current Financial Support for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market”, which covers development loans, trust loans, M&A loans, guaranteed delivery of buildings, real estate company bailouts, and loans Various upstream and downstream financing of real estate, such as extension period, construction enterprise loan, leasing financing, personal mortgage and credit investigation. The growth rate of national real estate development investment continued to decline this year. From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 11.3945 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, showing negative growth for the seventh consecutive month, and the decline continued to expand. The latest financial support policy for the real estate market has bailed out real estate companies from the source of funds, and in particular requires stable real estate development loans to “treat all types of state-owned and private real estate companies equally.” This policy is a symbolic signal, and the real estate industry is expected to gradually improve.
In addition to the above-mentioned positive macro-level, the supply and demand pattern of rebar has changed slightly recently, mainly on the supply side, and the improvement in demand has not been significant. As of the week of November 11, the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan was reported at 51.59%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points from the week of October 7. At the same time, the national blast furnace operating rate dropped from 83.50% to 77.21%. The average daily output of molten iron fell from a stage high of 2.4022 million tons in the week of September 30 to 2.2681 million tons in the week of November 11; the average daily output of crude steel fell to 1.9868 million tons, a new low since mid-August; The weekly output of rebar also showed signs of peaking and falling at the end of October.
This week, the limited production in the heating season is about to start one after another. Steel mills have poor expectations for the future demand, and the supply of steel products will continue to fall. However, due to the current sluggish profit per ton of steel on the disk, the market is leading the spot rise, the futures and spot basis has narrowed, the profit of spot steel per ton has been restored to a certain extent, and the decline in rebar production may be limited. From the demand side, as of the week of November 11, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was reported at 3.2264 million tons, a slight decrease of 93,700 tons week-on-week, showing signs of turning heads. Under the background of rushing construction projects such as infrastructure, the apparent demand for rebar may maintain a level of about 3.2 million tons in the short term, but the current level has been relatively low in the past five years. At the same time, under the influence of seasonal off-season factors, the demand for rebar It’s hard to be optimistic.
To sum up, under the dominance of macro-favorites, rebar followed the market and continued to rebound, correcting the current basis difference and profit per ton of steel. However, there are signs of contraction at both ends of the supply and demand of rebar, and the inventory has dropped to a low level in nearly five years. Follow-up needs to observe the rush of infrastructure and other projects and the performance of traders’ winter storage at the beginning of next year. (Shi Lei, New Era Futures)
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP