“We maintain our view of higher rates for longer and expect major central banks to begin the first cuts in the cost of borrowing in mid-2024. We believe that subsequent cuts will be gradual as the return to the neutral rate will require some time”: S&P analysts say so in their latest report on the global economy released today.
For 2024, S&P’s forecast for global economic growth was adjusted upward to 3.2%, marking an increase of 40 basis points from previous forecasts, thanks to positive revisions for the United States and India. In particular, for the United States, S&P has revised its growth forecast to 2.5%, improving by one percentage point compared to previous estimates, thanks above all to the persistent robustness of the labor market.
As for India, the growth forecast for fiscal 2024, which ends in March, was raised by 1.2 percentage points to 7.6%, while for fiscal 2025, the increase was 40 basis points, bringing it to 6.8%. The latest estimate for the Eurozone indicates growth of 0.7% for the current year and 1.3% for next year.