Source: GF Futures Author: GF Futures
The text of the research report
The main points:
eggSupply: The supply of eggs in the origin is limited as a whole. From the perspective of the inventory, the overall inventory remains at a low level, among which the number of new laying hens is not large; breeding units choose to eliminate old chickens of appropriate age, and the number of eliminated chickens in some areas next week may increase, but the increase is limited. Inventories in production and distribution links maintained normal levels. In terms of demand: high prices are difficult to sell in the terminal market, the delivery speed is average, traders are cautious in participating in the market, and purchase in small batches at the origin. On the whole: the terminal market is difficult to sell at high prices, traders are not very motivated to get goods in the origin, and there is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices in the next few days. After the egg price declines, traders may replenish supplies in stages, and egg prices may rebound within a narrow range in the second half of next week.
Strategy of the week:
It is recommended to wait and see, and radicals can be technically short.
Last week’s strategy:
There is limited room for egg prices to rise and fall, and it is recommended to wait and see.
1-period spot price trend review
The main force of egg futures fell 0.37% this week, with the price trading range around 4200-4400 yuan/500KG, the highest hitting 4318 yuan/500KG, and the lowest 4236 yuan/500KG.
This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 5.66 yuan/catties, a decrease of 3.25% month-on-month; the average price of eggs in the main selling areas was 5.87 yuan/catties, a month-on-month decrease of 3.29%.
2- The relationship between feed cost and egg price
When the general trend of feed prices fell, the price of eggs also showed a more obvious decline, and when the cost was relatively firm, the price of eggs was also more obvious.
The price fluctuation of eggs is obviously larger than that of feed. The difference is that because eggs are fast-moving consumer goods, the main factors that determine their short-term prices are their own supply and demand.cornWhen the price is low or high for a long time, it will have a greater impact on the price of eggs. Currently, corn,soybean mealPrices remained high and fluctuated, indirectly supporting egg prices.
3- The cost of feed increased slightly month-on-month
This week, the prices of corn and soybean meal continued to rise slightly, and the cost of feed increased. The average cost of a single catty of egg feed was 4.01 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 0.50%.
4- The price of eliminated chickens fell slightly
This week, the price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas of the country fell slightly, with an average weekly price of 6.95 yuan/catties, a month-on-month decrease of 3.61%. This week, most breeding units still have a wait-and-see mentality, and a few breeding units are more motivated to eliminate old chickens, so the supply of eliminated chickens has increased slightly. However, the operating rate of downstream slaughtering enterprises is still low, the purchase volume is small, the sales volume in the farmers market is low, and the overall demand is weak. Compared with the beginning of the week, East China had the largest decline, with the average price at the beginning of the week 7.47 yuan/catties, a drop of 5.22% during the week.
5-Chicken price
The market price of commercial generation chicks has partially increased by 0.20-0.30 yuan / feather, the average price is 3.44 yuan / feather, a month-on-month increase of 1.47%, the mainstream price is 3.40-3.50 yuan / feather, some high prices are 3.70-3.80 yuan / feather, and some low prices are 3.20 yuan / feather Yuan/feather. At this stage, the profit of laying hens is acceptable, and the demand for young chickens in some areas has increased, which has driven the sales of chicks, and the price of seedlings has risen steadily. At present, most of the orders of breeder enterprises are placed in mid-December, and some large factories are placed in late and early January 2023. The utilization rate of breeding eggs is mostly 60%-70%, and some individuals reach 80%.
6- The stock of laying hens is increasing slowly and slightly, but the stock is generally tight
In October, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.185 billion, an increase of 0.08% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.37%. The newly-produced laying hens this month are mainly the chickens that were replenished in June. The egg price fell during the month, and the feed cost continued to be high. In addition, the difficulty of brooding became more difficult after the temperature rose, and the breeding units were actively replenishing the pen. The sales volume decreased by 10.68% month-on-month, so the number of newly laid laying hens decreased during the month. On the other hand, as the price of eggs rose to a high level this month, the profitability of breeding was good, and the enthusiasm of breeding units to hunt for chickens was low, and the number of slaughtered chickens was significantly reduced. On the whole, the number of newly laid laying hens this month is slightly more than the number of eliminated chickens, and the number of laying hens has increased slightly.
7- The enthusiasm for filling the column has improved slightly
In October, the price of eggs fell behind and rose, and the focus moved up again. The profitability of breeding units was acceptable, and the enthusiasm for scouring chickens was not high. In addition, the price of eliminated chickens rose to a high level, and there were not many old chickens of the right age. It accounted for 10.14%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from the previous month. At present, the cost of feed remains relatively high, and the breeding unit has a strong wait-and-see attitude after scouring the chickens. Although the overall enthusiasm for replenishment has improved, it is still cautious. The proportion of reserve chickens under 120 days of age is 14.82%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous month. The overall supply of egg market is still at a low level this month, the proportion of main laying hens decreased slightly from the previous month, and the proportion of 120-450-day-old laying hens accounted for 75.04%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous month. Looking at the market outlook, the current inventory of old chickens to be scouted is still limited, and the overall amount available for scouring in the later stage is not much. It is expected that the proportion of the later stage may continue to remain relatively low; the enthusiasm for replenishment of young chickens and young chickens has improved slightly, but limited by high costs, it is expected that The proportion or increase of reserve chickens is limited.
8- Inventory statistics of main producing areas and circulation links (weekly)
9- The supply of small size eggs is tight, and the proportion of medium and large size eggs is still the main force
10- Substitute price situation
On November 11, 2022, the wholesale price 200 index of vegetable basket products was 126.88, down 1.22 from the previous week.
On November 12, 2022, the national average price was 25.13 yuan/kg, and the pig price fell by 0.08 yuan/kg from yesterday, down 6.3% month-on-month and up 43.44% year-on-year;
11-period current spread analysis
According to the data, the egg basis obviously has a certain regularity. Before the New Year, the basis showed a strong situation. After the holiday, the basis began to converge to a negative value. Until June and July, the basis gradually returned to the vicinity of 0. In August and September, the basis difference rose to the highest position in the year, and after October, the basis difference fluctuated within a certain range, and the trend depends on the fundamental situation of the year.
From the current basis, as of November 11, the egg basis was around 1340 yuan/500KG, the spot peaked and fell, and the basis weakened slightly.
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