The arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong is expected to be high and the price of soybean meal futures will fluctuate at a high level

Source: Best Futures Author: Best Futures

Research report text

soybean：

【Industry data】In USDA’s December supply and demand report, the 2022/23 US soybean planting area was 87.5 million acres, 87.50 last month, -0; the harvested area was 86.6 million acres, last month 86.6 million acres, -0; the average yield was 50.2 bushels per acre, Last month was 50.2, +0; production was 4.346 billion bushels, last month was 4.346, +0; crushing was 2.245 billion bushels, last month was 2.245, +0; exports were 2.045 billion bushels, last month was 2.045, -0; ending stocks were 220 million bushels , 2.2 last month, +0.

In the USDA December report, in 2022/2023, Argentina’s soybean production was 49.5 million tons, up from 49.5 million tons last month, -0; Brazil’s soybean production was 152 million tons, up from 152 million tons last month, +0.

As of the week of December 1, the export of U.S. soybeans was 2.2476 million tons, +130,600 tons month-on-month, +6.17%. The cumulative export was 21.1731 million tons, -2.3312 million tons year-on-year, -9.92%, and -9.51% last week; 1.6697 million tons in China, +159,300 tons month-on-month, +10.55%, cumulative exports to China were 14.9725 million tons, -619,100 tons year-on-year, -3.97%, last week -5.79%.

As of the month of December 11, Brazil exported 720,100 tons of soybeans, +72.01; since February, the annual cumulative export has been 75.9996 million tons, a year-on-year -11.4889 million tons, -13.18%, and last week -13.75%.

According to CONAB, the national commodity company under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 10, Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean planting rate was 95.9%, 90.7% last week, and 96.6% in the same period last year.

【Operation strategy】The sales of U.S. soybeans are gradually increasing. Due to the drought in Argentina, the planting progress is lagging behind, while the sowing progress in Brazil is normal. The U.S. soybean inventory remains unchanged.soybean mealInventory continues to rise, soybeans are expected to arrive in Hong Kong at a high level, soybean meal futures prices fluctuate at high levels, and M2301 and RM2301 can be mainly traded within the day.

grease:

【Industry information and trends】ITS data, horse palm oil December 1-10palmThe export volume of oil products was 493,000 tons, an increase of 5.6% from 466,900 tons in the same period last month. According to MPOA data, the output of horse palm oil in November fell by 6.09% from the previous month. Indonesia’s B35 biodiesel policy, which is blended with 35 percent palm oil-based fuel, is likely to begin in January 2023, a senior energy ministry official said. According to SPPOMA data, from December 1 to 5, the output of horse palm oil decreased by 9.16% compared with the same period last month, and the oil yield decreased by 0.03%.

Spotaccording to wind, Zhangjiagang grade 4 soybean oil is quoted at 9790 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton); Huangpu 24-degree palm oil is quoted at 8070 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton); Jiangsu imported rapeseed crushed grade 4 vegetable oil is quoted at 12880 yuan / ton (+190 yuan / ton).

【Viewpoints and Operational Strategies】In USDA’s monthly report, the end-of-year soybean inventory of US soybeans in 2022/23 was 220 million bushels, slightly lower than market forecasts; Brazil and Argentina’s soybean production was flat with market forecasts, and the actual impact of the report was limited. It is rumored that the horse palm has bought more ships recently, and the superimposed MPOB report is about to be released.

domestic aspect, Oil and fat stocks increased slightly, with 738,350 tons of soybean oil (-7,250 tons), 978,800 tons of palm oil (+51,300 tons), and 120,500 tons of rapeseed oil (-21,000 tons). Short-term trading within days of P2305, y2305, and OI305 is recommended.

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