On September 30th, the three major A-share indexes opened higher. In the early trading, the Shanghai Index rose strongly. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both rose sharply, and the ChiNext Index soared nearly 2%. Hongmeng, cloud games, semiconductors and other sectors are active, cyclical stocks such as chemical industry, nonferrous metals, and steel rebounded. Lithium battery stocks are making a comeback. More than ten stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy have their daily limit or increase by more than 10%. The power sector surged back in early trading, and banks, oil and gas, and securities performed weakly. The three major indexes expanded in the afternoon. The ChiNext Index rose by more than 2%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by nearly 2%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose by more than 1%. Power stocks once again collectively pulled up in the afternoon, with more than 20 stocks including Huaneng Hydropower trading at their daily limit. Steel and coal stocks strengthened, and the oil and gas sector rebounded. On the whole, market sentiment has obviously recovered, and the effect of making money is relatively strong. Stocks in the two cities have generally risen, with more than 3700 shares rising and more than 90 shares rising by the limit.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9% to 3568.17 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.63% to 14,309.01 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.19% to 3,244.65 points. The turnover of the two cities failed to continue to break through the trillion yuan mark, and the whole day turnover was only 950 billion yuan.
On the disk, most sectors rose, with lithium battery, power, and coal sectors leading the rise, and banking and securities sectors leading the decline.
In terms of attracting funds, the northbound capital inflows in late collective bidding, with net purchases of 970 million yuan throughout the day, including a net purchase of 1.613 billion yuan on Shenzhen Stock Connect; a cumulative net purchase of 30.5 billion yuan by northbound funds in September.
Although the subject of price increases today is generally strong, some analysts pointed out that there have been relatively high increases in the previous period and the current supply and demand situation is reversing. The rise in commodity prices is about to come to an end, and the subject of subsequent price increases may face adjustment and differentiation.
Industrial Securities said that after experiencing a wave of trend increases brought about by the increasing supply and demand gap, as the demand side of the resource sector gradually declines, the fourth quarter, especially the mid-to-late cyclical stock market may face more obvious adjustments and differentiation. , Funds have also begun to look for new offensive directions from the cycle resource product sector. From the perspective of Industrial Securities, the consumer sector has its own repair logic. In addition, the growth of science and technology and new infrastructure are also directions that deserve attention.
Ping An Securities believes that in the process of volatility and peaking, the cyclical sector will usher in differentiation, and the prices of most cyclical stocks will usher in a significant fall. However, the sub-sectors represented by crude oil and aluminum are still worthy of attention, especially ESG indicators dominate. Of large state-owned listed companies, the price-performance ratio is still relatively high.
Regarding the current market situation, Guohai Securities mentioned that the National Day Golden Week is approaching and the holiday period is relatively long. The market and investors are worried, especially under the weak and volatile market. News, funds and emotions will be affected by the holiday effect, so A Stocks are weak and divergent, and it is normal for the market to fluctuate. Guohai Securities further analyzed the performance of A-shares before and after the long holiday in the past 15 years. It can be found that: first, the A-shares before the long holiday were generally weak, and the market was mainly downturn and consolidation. Second, after the long holiday, the probability of rising of A shares has increased significantly. The probability of the A-share index rising in the week after the holiday is 80%-90%, and the average increase is 2%-3%. Third, one month after the long holiday, although the probability of increase has declined, it is also 70%-80%, and the average increase has risen to 3%-5%. Analyzed from the perspective of the probability of rise and fall, the winning rate after the holiday is higher, which will also cause the capital to “get ahead”.
It is worth noting that Huaxin Securities believes that the rapid shrinking of trading volume is a behavior of floor traders gradually reducing transactions, which means that when the downtrend has entered a relatively low stage, but based on historical experience, the pre-holiday downturn is the norm. Create opportunities after the holiday.
In addition, Centaline Securities also said that in the short term, the market is facing capital and expected fluctuations towards the end of September. After experiencing a rapid upward movement in the early period, the credit risk caused by the Evergrande incident and the disturbance of overseas policies will bring short-term fluctuations in the market. The capital situation at the end of the quarter and the double festival will become tight or further aggravate the short-term negative impact of the market. However, within the year, these risk factors are still difficult to form a trend reversal in the market. On the one hand, under steady growth, it is difficult for individual risk events to spread across the board; on the other hand, the capital environment of the market entering the fourth quarter will return to the previous stable state, and the main line of the market will return. From a configuration perspective, we continue to recommend the excess return opportunities of the cyclical sector and the trend market of leading industries under the valuation switch market.
Guosheng Securities said that combined with the historical calendar effect, the market is expected to usher in a counterattack after the long holiday, and the third-quarter performance has a strong correlation with the company’s rise and fall after the holiday. In the context of continued price resilience and obvious relative performance advantages, continue to be optimistic about the performance of upstream products; at the same time, for the proposal to maintain a gradual increase in value stocks, it is recommended that investors lay out brokerages, construction, power, consumer core assets and Hong Kong stocks on the left side. Faucet.