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The first quarter of 2022/23 in Brazil’s central-southern region ended Nov. 10, according to consultancy AgRural.cornPlanting progress is 70%, compared to 63% the previous week and 85% this time last year. The slow pace of planting is due to erratic rainfall in the southeast and in Goiás. Planting has ended in southern Brazil, where warmer temperatures are helping the crop.
The weather outlook for the main corn-producing states in the United States in the next 6-10 days: 100% of the major corn-producing states in the United States have a high degree of confidence that the temperature will be lower than normal in the next 6-10 days, and 78% of the regions have a relatively high degree of confidence that the precipitation will be lower than normal.
Summary of agricultural product export data from the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce and Trade: In the second week of November 2022, a total of 8 working days, a total of 2.2886 million tons of corn were loaded, compared with 2.3925 million tons in November last year. The average daily shipment volume was 286,100 tons/day, an increase of 127.18% from 125,900 tons/day in November last year.
The weekly crop growth report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in the early hours of Tuesday showed that as of the week of November 13, the US corn harvest rate was 93%, the market forecast was 93%, the previous week was 87%, and the same period last year was 93%. 90%, and the five-year average is 85%.
Institutional view
Southwest Futures:
On the whole, the overall selling pressure of northern corn is not strong. Feed paddy stopped shooting. Inventories from northeast origins began to gradually shift to northern ports. The price advantage of imported corn in southern ports has decreased, and the demand for feed may turn to domestic corn. Global corn inventories are near eight-year lows. The arrival cost of corn in the new crop season is about 2,700-2,750 yuan/ton, and the cost is somewhat supported. It is suggested that multiple orders can be gradually established along the cost support. Pay attention to money management and set a good stop loss.
Strategy:It is suggested that multiple orders can be gradually established along the cost support.
Huatai Futures:
Internationally, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) released a report saying that the lack of rainfall continued to affect the progress of corn planting. Advance 1.1%, the progress is relatively slow. On the domestic front, the listing volume in Northeast China is still insufficient, the old grain of enterprises is decreasing day by day, and the sentiment of purchasing new grain is high. At the same time, various reserve depots are also beginning to replenish their warehouses. In addition, most parts of the country are facing the impact of rainy and snowy weather this weekend, resulting in an increase in logistics costs. Grassroots sales were hindered and supply was tight, which supported the spot price of corn. Therefore, it is expected that corn prices will fluctuate strongly this week.
Strategy:Unilaterally cautiously bullish.
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