Every time by reporter Li Shaoting Every time by intern reporter Yang Hui Every time by editor of Wen Duo
On the afternoon of July 8, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom jointly held an investor exchange event in the telecom industry for the first time. The leaders of the three major operators jointly discussed the reshaping of the valuation model of China’s telecommunications industry and the development direction of the telecommunications industry into the digital market.
The data mentioned at the meeting showed that in the first five months of this year, the telecommunications industry achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 8.5%, and about 70% of the incremental revenue was driven by emerging businesses.
According to Bai Wenxi, Chief Economist of IPG China, the telecommunications industry has indeed reached a point of growth mode transformation, and basic communication services are gradually being replaced by social media. Under this current situation and competition dimension, the sustainable development of the telecommunications industry has been It’s time to rethink.
The telecom industry needs to reshape the valuation model
On the afternoon of July 8, China Mobile (SH600941, stock price of 58.92 yuan, market value of 1.3 trillion yuan), China Unicom (SH600050, stock price of 3.42 yuan, market value of 106 billion yuan), China Telecom (SH601728, stock price of 3.71 yuan, market value of 339.5 billion yuan) ) jointly held an investor exchange event for listed companies in the telecommunications industry, and the leaders of the three major telecommunications operators appeared together.
“We can no longer look at the telecommunications industry with the old eyes, and we can no longer simply use old indicators and models such as user growth that have lasted for decades to evaluate the new value of the telecommunications industry.” Liu Liehong, chairman of China Unicom, pointed out at the meeting that before this year In the past five months, the reason why the telecom industry has maintained a year-on-year revenue growth of 8.5% is because about 70% of the incremental revenue is driven by emerging businesses, and the telecom industry valuation model needs to be reshaped with the times.
Why reshape the telecom industry valuation model? On the afternoon of July 9, Chen Jia, a researcher at the International Monetary Institute of Renmin University of China, told the “Daily Economic News” reporter through WeChat that the valuation model of the telecommunications industry needs to keep pace with the times in the face of new situations, and the original model is the corresponding old model. The growth model cannot accurately reflect the value of innovation in the telecommunications industry, especially the value of the new track.
According to Chen Jia, taking the European and American capital markets as an example, the telecommunications track has experienced a surging upward trend in the past three years, with a large influx of funds; but this year, the Federal Reserve officially opened the valve to raise interest rates at an excessive rate to curb inflation, market liquidity has shrunk, telecommunications The valuation of the sector has declined, and the market has begun to rethink how to correctly view the valuation model of the telecom industry. “In the A-share and H-share markets, this problem exists as deeply and is worthy of in-depth study and judgment.” Chen Jia said.
In addition, the original growth model also has certain bottlenecks. On the afternoon of July 9, Wang Peng, a researcher at the Intelligent Social Governance Research Center of Renmin University of China, told the “Daily Economic News” reporter through WeChat that for the three major telecom operators, the traditional business model is mainly for basic telecom services, such as telephone, SMS, traffic, network, etc., the development model mainly depends on user growth.
“The traditional telecommunications industry mainly builds infrastructure and achieves profitability through investment methods; at the same time, it makes incremental improvements to the consumer side, such as increasing call time, Internet access charges, etc. Under this model framework, telecommunications services are either one or the other, and there is no Realize symbiosis.” Wang Peng said that the rapid development of new online media and social media has also impacted traditional telecom businesses; new competitors have emerged one after another, and users’ consumption habits have also changed. The telecom industry’s original business growth and profit margins are very large limited.
Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, also pointed out in a WeChat interview on the same day that the telecommunications industry has indeed reached a growth model transition point. “Basic communication services are gradually being replaced by social media. Under this status quo and competition dimension, the sustainable development of the telecommunications industry has come to a time when we have to rethink.” Bai Wenxi said.
However, Chen Jia also pointed out that the old and new tracks are not always substitutes, and there may be complementary relationships, or even a link between the past and the future. “For example, the 5G network and the 4G network have an overlapping relationship, not one or the other. The old 4G industry chain still has strategic value that cannot be ignored.”
Three major operators advance into the new blue ocean of digital economy
In addition to reshaping the valuation model, embracing the digital economy has also become the center of discussion at this exchange. Regarding this track, Qian Kai, managing director of the research department of CICC, pointed out at the meeting that from the perspective of the short-term development of the digital economy, the secondary industry is the focus of the next stage of industrial digital upgrading. Compared with Internet platform-based enterprises, Operators have huge advantages in the 2B and 2G fields.
Bai Wenxi also pointed out that the industrial Internet has a broad and strong demand for digitalization and digital services. Seizing the digital opportunities of the secondary industry is an important opportunity for telecom operators to take advantage of the industrial Internet and digitalization opportunities. Operators should combine market and customer needs. Provide powerful solutions to turn opportunities into business opportunities for self-development.
Wang Peng also said that in addition to telecom value-added services and infrastructure construction, telecom operators also have their own advantages: brand, capital, strength, and talents, and they can fully participate in digital transformation. “For example, when accessing the Internet through the cloud, operators can provide solutions or SaaS platforms, and accelerate their integration with innovative companies through shareholding and investment.”
This view is actually what operators are doing. According to Liu Liehong, the cloud business revenue of the three major operators will reach 68.4 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 90%. According to the current market value of cloud computing manufacturers of 4 times to 8 times, the market value of operators alone can reach 300 billion yuan to 600 billion yuan.
Judging from the procurement data disclosed by the government, in the first five months of this year, the three operators accounted for 45% of the total winning bids for digital government, of which government applications accounted for 68%. According to the data disclosed by the three major operators, the telecommunications industry is no longer a “pipeline operator” in the traditional sense. main engine of growth.
China Mobile also introduced in response to investor questions that the company’s digital transformation revenue in 2021 will be 159.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, and its contribution to the increase in main business revenue will reach 59.5%, which is the main driving force for revenue growth.
As for the concept of the “metaverse” that has become popular recently, Yang Jie, chairman of China Mobile, pointed out that the “metaverse” is still in the early stage of the concept, and AI technology, input and output technology, VR/AR technology, Internet technology, blockchain technology, etc. still need to be developed. Deep integration. The operator’s new infrastructure of “5G + computing power network + smart middle platform” can support massive access and computing processing, real modeling and interaction, large-scale virtual content creation and experience, and will become an important cornerstone for the construction of the Metaverse.
It is worth mentioning that, on the interactive interface of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow, investors also asked about China Unicom’s previously announced consideration of spin-off of its subsidiary “Intelligent Network Technology” and listed on the A-share market. In this regard, China Unicom replied that Unicom Zhiwang Technology has submitted an application for listing guidance to the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau, which has been officially accepted, and is currently in the guidance period. As for the company’s future investment, China Unicom stated that it will moderately increase capital expenditure in 2022 and keep capital expenditure growth in line with revenue growth, of which the overall investment in 5G is basically the same as last year.
China Mobile also responded to investors’ questions about the tower rent, saying that if the impact of the new leasing standards is not taken into account, the company’s tower rental fee calculated on the original basis in 2021 will be 44.5 billion yuan, an increase of 0.3%, and China Mobile will use the existing site resources. , the new 5G station is preferentially constructed in the original site upgrade mode, and at the same time, the sharing rate of the tower is increased.
Source of cover image: Photo Network-500573082