The supply is tight and the peak season is coming. Jujube still has the potential to rise | Jujube_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Research report text

For futures:

last Friday,red datesThe overall surface is strong. The highest price of the main contract was 10,895 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 10,735 yuan/ton, closing at 10,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton, or 0.89%. In terms of warehouse receipts, there are 120 effective forecasts and 0 registered warehouse receipts, a total of 120, equivalent to 600 tons of spot goods.

In stock:

Jujubes are being planted one after another in Xinjiang. During the control of the epidemic, the movement of people between different farms is limited, and the process of planting red dates is slow in some areas. In terms of price, the average price of Aksu gray dates is 6.50 yuan/kg; the average price of Alar gray dates is 6.75 yuan/kg; the average price of Kashi gray dates is 7.90 yuan/kg. The circulation of red dates has not yet fully recovered, and markets such as Guangzhou and Cangzhou have not resumed the market. Traders are not very active in replenishing goods, and the downstream goods are generally sold. In the Hebei market, the average price of the first grade is 11.05 yuan/kg, the average price of the second grade is 9.75 yuan/kg, and the average price of the third grade gray jujube is 9.25 yuan/kg. The Guangdong market price refers to the average price of first-grade gray dates at 11.30 yuan/kg, the average price of second-grade gray dates at 10.70 yuan/kg, and the average price of third-grade gray dates at 10.15 yuan/kg.

Logic and strategy:

The epidemic control in Xinjiang continues, the progress of new jujube trees is slow, it is difficult to purchase in Xinjiang, the scope of personnel flow is relatively limited, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase is low. In terms of circulation, logistics in Xinjiang is relatively tight, and freight rates continue to rise slightly; in terms of processing, due to the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of jujube processing plants in Xinjiang is lower than the same period in previous years, and the circulation of new dates is generally low; in terms of prices, jujube farmers and traders in production areas The game between them continues to exist, and the currency price fluctuates in a small range.

Due to the epidemic situation, some areas of the sales area market were closed for rest, the surrounding transactions were light, and the prices were relatively stable; due to the poor circulation of new dates, most of the red dates that can be traded in the current market are mainly old dates in stock. The postponement of red date trade may be a foregone conclusion, and the sentiment of jujube farmers to hold up prices may weaken; traders will continue to test the base price of jujube farmers based on factors such as controlling procurement costs and delaying red date trade. However, with the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, the circulation of red dates is gradually recovering, the supply is tight and the peak season is coming, and the price of dates still has the potential to rise.

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