Se per diplomacy means the set of rules and processes that govern international relations with the aim of preventing or resolving disputes and conflicts, or even as a special skill in dealing with complex issues and in seeking compromises, it must be concluded that, with respect to the conflict that has been going on for a year in Ukraine, diplomacy has failed altogether. But perhaps it is better to analyze the question more closely.
A credible path to diplomacy
It can be argued that diplomacy failed in the phase that preceded theRussian invasion of Ukraine, for example because the West has not taken Putin’s threats seriously or has not been able to offer the President of the Russian Federation solutions that would allow the so-called special military operation to be avoided. But it can also be objected that Putin had already decided some time ago that a Democratic, independent and pro-Western Ukraine was an unsustainable threat to Russia’s security, and therefore there was no alternative to invading the neighboring country.
Equally, it could be argued that diplomacy has failed because after a year of war it has still not been able to identify a credible path to a cessation of hostilities and an agreement between the aggressor and the attacked. But even in this case it can be objected that the search for a dialogue has so far clashed with the systematic practice of the fait accompli on the Russian side (with the annexation of the occupied territories to the Russian Federation) and with the fixing, again on the Russian side, of conditions evidently unacceptable (such as the renunciation by Kyiv of the territories occupied by Russian troops).
Western reactions
If instead you look at the Western reactions to Russian aggression, the judgment changes radically. Because precisely Putin’s reckless move has strengthened relations between Americans, Europeans and others like never before like mindedwho defined without hesitation a common strategy based on the condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on the adoption of heavy sanctions against Russia, on the commitment to provide the attacked Ukraine with all the assistance necessary to defend itself with economic aid , financial, humanitarian and military. Diplomacy worked here because on the basis of a political reaction of solidarity with Ukraine it has allowed for the deployment of rapid, articulated and effective collective action. And diplomacy has equally worked when it came to promoting limited and sectoral agreements between Russia and Ukraine, for example on the exchange of prisoners or on the departure from Ukrainian ports of ships for the transport of cereals for export.
Diplomacy has worked less well, however, in the attempt to broaden the basis of consensus on this line of condemnation of Russia and assistance to Ukraine from the Western camp to other players on the international scene. Indeed, the West, which also reacted together and in solidarity with the Russian aggression, has failed to involve, in a line of condemnation of Russia and convinced assistance to Ukraine, neither the Chinese born theIndia nor other important players on the international scene. Too many governments of important countries have preferred not to take open sides and have practiced a line of deliberate ambiguity towards Russia, or have, in some cases, helped Russia to circumvent Western sanctions.
The time of diplomacy
All this certainly not to conclude that the space for diplomacy is definitively precluded with respect to the conflict in Ukraine. But more simply to note that, unfortunately, the time for diplomacy has not yet come. There will certainly be a need for diplomacy, but when the aggressor country has finally realized that the political and economic costs of the war are becoming unsustainable, that the territorial integrity of Ukraine is indispensable and that a compromise will have to be based on the recognition of the borders that before February 24 last year.
Then we can talk about a new arrangement for Ukraine which includes the protection of Russian-speaking minorities, an autonomy regime for Donbass, guarantees for the security of Russia, but also and above all guarantees of security for a Ukraine destined for a future in Europe, and perhaps in the future also a new architecture of security in Europe. Then diplomacy will be able to play its role again.
EPA/SERGEY SHESTAK’s photo