Within hours of the ban that prevents the publication of surveyswe analyzed the numbers of six of the main consultancies that measured voting intentions by space and by candidate both nationally and in the province of Buenos Aires and the Buenos Aires territory.
The purpose of the work is to obtain a macro look at the results when there are nine days left for the first electoral test of the year that will continue in October and that, perhaps, will have a third round.
Broadly speaking, most of the polls give Juntos por el Cambio an advantage at the national level for the presidential elections, while in Buenos Aires the ruling party would maintain its symbolic and territorial bastion.
Social beliefs and motivations in voting 9 days after the PASO
The same happens in the city of Buenos Aires, where JxC leads the intention to vote and Jorge Macrithe PRO applicant, prevails over Martin Lousteau.
Federico González and Associates
In the case of the consultancy run by Federico Gonzalez, the percentages for the primaries position Together for Change (36.4%), Unión por la Patria (30.1%) and La Libertad Avanza (19.5%). In addition, in the disaggregated national level, Patricia Bullrich (20.1%) leads Horacio Rodriguez Larreta (16.3%), while Sergio Massa far exceeds Juan Grabois (23.8% against 6.3% of the social leader).
In the province of Buenos Aires, a technical tie prevails, since JxC adds 34.6% between its two candidates and Axel Kicillof 34.1%. The podium is completed by La Plata Carolina Píparo, from La Libertad Avanza, reaching 19.8% of voting intentions. In the internal between Santilli and Grindetti, bishops of Larreta and Bullrich respectively, the advantage is for the national deputy (19.2% 15.4%).
Finally, in the city of Buenos Aires the logic of the last elections where Juntos prevails over Peronism would be fulfilled, in this case with a difference of more than twenty points (47.9% against 24.4%). Third, as also in the previous measurements, the libertarian candidate is positioned, in this case represented by Ramiro Marra (19%). In addition, in the internal dispute between radicalism and the PRO, Jorge Macri prevails over Martín Lousteau (26.9% against 21%).
Projection Consultants
According Projection Consultants, a pollster close to the ruling party, Together for Change (34.3%) would be the space with the most votes in the next primaries, although with a minimal advantage over Unión por la Patria (31.1%). Third place would be occupied by La Libertad Avanza, the space focused on the figure of Javier Milei, in a comfortable third place (19.1%). This comfort is clear from the distance from the other spaces, where the most immediate followers are Juan Schiaretti (2.4%), Guillermo Moreno (1.7%) and Myriam Bregman (1.5%).
The electoral dispute in the province that concentrates the most votes in the country is also close, although with a victory for the current governor of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof (37.8%) over Diego Santilli and Néstor Grindetti, who between them have 35, 8% At 25 points is the formula of Carolina Píparo and Francisco Oneto, who represents La Libertad Avanza.
Finally, in the Buenos Aires PASO, the space that concentrates the most votes is Together for Change (53.5%), establishing a wide margin with the pan-Peronism that was in the column behind Leandro Santoro. In the case of Ramiro Marra, the legislator of La Libertad Avanza, shows a lower performance than the one that led Javier Milei to third place in the 2021 legislative elections, adding 9.9%.
In the inmates of each space, Patricia Bullrich would win over Rodríguez Larreta, Massa over Grabois, Santilli over Grindetti and Jorge Macri over Martín Lousteau.
circuits
The consultancy run by pablo roma it also measured a parity scenario at the national level with JxC chosen by 35.8% of the cases surveyed and UxP in 30.9%. Third, although far from the first two places, is LLA with 14.9%. In fourth place, no space was located and the option “does not know yet” prevailed.
In addition, in the primaries of the coalitions, Sergio Massa and Patricia Bullrich appear as the most elected, in pan-Peronism and Juntos, respectively.
Giacobbe and Associates
The consultant Jorge Giacobbe also projected a victory for the cambiemismo over the former Frente de Todos with both coalitions above 30 points. In the case of the opposition, it added 35%, while the ruling party reached 30.5%.
The inmate of the space that governed between 2015 and 2019 remains in the hands of Bullrich (24.8% against Larreta’s 13.2%), while Massa prevails by a wide margin over Juan Grabois (25.1% to 7.1 %).
In the case of Javier Milei, the measurements of the consultant close to Bullrich also place him in third place with 18.1%. At this point it should be noted that the undecided (14.1%) were taken into account.
tachyon
In the case of this consultant, the age range of 18 to 30 years, that is, young people, was taken as the public. Regarding the upcoming elections on August 13, 32.6% of those surveyed favored Javier Milei and Victoria Villarruel, while Together for Change and Unión por la Patria registered a technical tie (12.8% and 12 .5%, respectively).
On the other hand, the work revealed that 3 out of 10 young people between the ages of 18 and 30 would not vote for any candidate on the grid and even show themselves as undecided. If this data is taken, the first place would be occupied by the disenchanted with 35.9%, even ahead of the libertarian formula.
Atlas
Finally, the Atlas-Intel survey measured voting intentions at the national level, in Buenos Aires and in the city of Buenos Aires. In the first item, JxC ranked first with 31.9%, but almost in parity with pan-Peronism, which registered 30.8%. In the case of Milei, it registered an intentionality of 20.8%.
In the province governed by Axel Kicillof, the advantage was recorded in his favor and by a considerable margin, since he collected 38.2% intention over the 31% of JvC. Far behind was Píparo, the candidate for La Libertad Avanza, with 12.7%. However, another piece of information that emerges from this analysis is the advantage of Diego Santilli over Néstor Grindetti in Juntos (21.3% over 9.7%).
Finally, in the city of Buenos Aires, the greatest intention to vote for president is for the cambiemita ruling party, which adds up to 39.4% and second place, unlike other measurements, for the libertarians (23.5%). Very close was Santoro, from Unión por la Patria, collecting 22% of adhesions. Discriminated against by Buenos Aires candidates, the data gives Jorge Macri a victory over Martín Lousteau (add to 26.3% and 21.2%, respectively).
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