In the first chapter of the fourth season of the series Succession, Connor Roy walks absorbed by his father’s house, looking at the phone screen. His partner asks if he is alright. Roy, a candidate for President of the United States and son of media mogul Logan Roy, lies and claims that he is. “The polls”, he says about what he observes and has him nervous. The fear that he has, he will confess later, is that the measurements will drop below 1%, the floor that he presents 10 days after the elections.
With those results, if he were to compete in the August 13 primary, Roy would not make it to the floor of 1,5% that provides for the electoral regulations to go to the first round or general election. It is the same drawback that some pre-candidates have with low vote intensity. In Argentina, opinion polls proliferate amid the closure of alliances, lists and undisguised proselytizing tours. There is something that all the analyzes share and that is to measure leaders who are recognized at the national level. Among those with the highest number of consents and rejections are Cristina Kirchner, Mauricio Macri, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Patricia Bullrich, Javier Milei o Axel Kicillof.
However, there are politicians who have already announced their candidacies and have the mark of ignorance engraved on their figures. Others, however, are recognized for having decades in vernacular politics but when measuring their electoral potential they show low floors. This note will start with the latter.
STEP in Chaco: Together for Change beat Capitanich’s ruling party by more than 5 points
Facundo Manes and Miguel Pichetto, two pre-candidates who will compete in August
According to data from Zuban Córdoba, a pollster that conducts polls at home, the cambiemitas Facundo Manes and Miguel Pichetto have a safe potential vote of 2.8% and 0.6%, respectively. If the probability “I could vote for him” is added to that figure, the radical totals 18% and the Peronist 7.6%. Both are discounted from all analysis in the primaries on August 13 where the battle of battles will be that of Bullrich against Rodríguez Larreta, but nevertheless they retain a certain charm for part of the electorate.
PROFILE consulted Pichetto’s team about the reason for his candidacy even knowing that the central dispute is settled between two other applicants. “He is open to the debate of ideas including republican Peronism within JxC and his vision is to contribute from the experience of the public, dialogue and consensus. He has been in executive positions and politics is his life”, he expressed.
In the case of the neuroscientist, it was one of the revelations of the 2021 legislatures, where he was left behind Diego Santilli in the province of Buenos Aires. A critic of Mauricio Macri at the dawn of his presidential launch, he came to complain that they had stopped calling him to give interviews and in recent months he has positioned himself strongly against Javier Milei.
Another survey carried out by Circuitos put him in competition with Rodríguez Larreta, Bullrich, Gerardo Morales and José Luis Espert. There Manes is above the liberal and the governor of Jujuy with 9.2%, but the distance with the two leaders of the PRO is sky-high (26.3% the mayor and 51.3% the former Minister of Security).
Decisive week: confirmed, doubts and possible candidates for the closing of lists
Union for the Homeland: which are the presidential that least measure
Within the same work of Zuban Córdoba, two pre-candidates of Unión por la Patria were measured: Juan Grabois (3.5% sure vote) and Agustín Rossi (1.5%). If both added the possibility that they could choose them in the primary, they totaled 11.5% and 8.3%, respectively. Unlike what happens in JxC, in pan-Peronism it is unknown if there will be a STEP or a consensus candidate three days after the list closes. To this day, the first option is the one that falls by decantation.
Grabois was one of the first pre-candidates within the official space. The Circuitos consultancy also measured his figure but concentrated on the third and fifth electoral sections, in addition to the three cordons of Greater Buenos Aires and towns in the interior. Within a possible scenario of STEP against Scioli, of Pedro, Massa and Rossi, Grabois is the one who obtains the lowest percentage (1.9%). Rossi, for his part, capitalizes 6.7%.
In his official launch in Ferro during the month of May, the leader of the Frente Patria Grande assured that part of his candidacy was due to Cristina Kirchner’s request for leaders to take up “the marshal’s baton.” “Either we are collectively represented in the formula and in the government program or they give us the STEP or we go outside with our party,” he added. The social leader also made one issue clear: if the candidate is Pedro’s “Wado”, he declines his proposal.
On June 12, he held a meeting with Claudio Lozano, former director of Banco Nación and also a candidate for Popular Unity within the Unión por la Patria. The economist’s proposal was to try to convince him to form an army taking into account that “they hold similar proposals.” The purpose, as they explained, is to promote a national, popular and democratic project in the PASO. In numbers, the consultancy González y Asociados measured Lozano, although outside the official coalition: the result was 0.1%.
Claudio Lozano and Jesús Escobar, measured by González y Asociados in Buenos Aires.
Lozano’s tour continued on June 13, where he went to meet another candidate who launched months ago but who does not have the same reflectors as the Scioli, Massa or Pedro: Gabriel Mariotto. “We both agree on the need to strengthen in the PASO of the Frente de Todos a pole of forces that supports a National, Popular and Democratic Project that allows displacing from the frontist decision axis those proposals that have subordinated the policy of the Front government to the demands of the IMF and of the owners of soybeans”, the exponent of Popular Unity wrote on his social networks. There are no numbers, however, that offer an overview of the potential of Mariotto, a candidate for Soberanxs.
Bregman, Escobar and Moreno: candidates outside “the thirds”
Lateral to Unión por la Patria, Juntos por el Cambio and La Libertad Avanza de Milei, there are other spaces that also present competitors such as the left. Two of the pollsters mentioned in this note measured the figure of Myriam Bregmancandidate of the Left Front and De Trabajadores.
According to Circuitos, she would win an inmate against Gabriela Solano from the Polo Obrero (by 53.7% to 32.1%) but she would not be as competitive in scenarios against other leaders, even falling below Guillermo Moreno (the economist adds 4, 9% and the lawyer 2.1%) in a first scenario. In the second, where she instead of Massa competes with Pedro for pan-Peronism, she also leaves her in sixth place with 2.6%. In the case of Federico González, she gives him 2.1% in the sample registered in the province of Buenos Aires. It is worth noting, however, that the left was the third most voted political force at the national level in the 2021 legislatures.
At this time, the deputy from Timote is one of the most insistent voices in denouncing the repression of the Jujuy police in the face of the constitutional reform promoted by Governor Gerardo Morales. On the night of this Tuesday, June 20, Together for Change gave a press conference supporting the governor and underlining the word “order.” Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich were there together to bankroll Morales. Another leader of the left like Eduardo Belliboni affirmed that They are “hunting demonstrators through the streets of Jujuy” and denounce that there are 35 detainees in the Alto Comedero prison.
This medium also spoke with Jesús Escobar, presidential candidate for Libres del Sur, who listed part of his postulates. “I propose to suspend the agreement with the IMF; nationalize natural resources; freeze prices and rates for one year to curb inflation; increase salaries, pensions and social programs; industrialize by adding value to resources at source; make public education and health free of charge, ”he stressed, among other proposals.
A survey places Unión por la Patria first in Buenos Aires and Scioli as the candidate with the best image
In addition, this medium consulted how his application is made visible, taking into account the disadvantage he has with other candidates. From his team they allege that Escobar he toured 22 provinces since August 2022 and visited more than 100 cities. Currently, Libres del Sur has 200,000 active members. On the other hand, they point out that the candidate’s experience as a provincial deputy, Constituent Convention Member, Secretary of Human Rights and President of the Council for Children and Adolescents are sufficient arguments to present him as head of the list. According to Federico González y Asociados, his figure measures 0.2% in Buenos Aires.
On June 17, one week after the closing of applications, Guillermo Moreno He presented his presidential proposal under the seal of Principles and Values, a Peronist option outside of Unión por la Patria. Along with him, in La Matanza, were Luis D’Elía and Alberto Samid, candidates for Buenos Aires governor and local mayor, respectively.
From the environment of the former Secretary of Commerce they cite the Buenos Aires survey carried out by Circuits to talk about how much he measures in the territory that Kicillof governs. There, two scenarios are proposed between Moreno and different national candidates (Massa, Bullrich, Rodríguez Larreta, Scioli or Bregman): in the first he added 4.9% and in the second 5.1%. “Now it’s going up,” they enthuse around him.
Part of the arguments of the morenistas about his application refer to his eternal fight against La Cámpora. “They appropriated the flags of Peronism to seize charges”, said a reference from the sixth to this medium. In addition, he added that D’Elía and Samid bring territoriality, they are pure-blooded Peronists and have been recognized for years by the general public. On the other hand, they also hope to capture part of the disenchanted vote with Juan Schiaretti.
All in all, the candidates at the bottom of the table are preparing to compete in the next primaries and achieve the sacred ground that will allow them, at least, to compete in the first round. Although some measure the same as the character of Succession and others, the numbers will reveal them in the race for a place that, for whoever occupies it, will be the territory of enormous unresolved problems for years.
GI/fl