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here are the dangers of underestimating the pandemic

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here are the dangers of underestimating the pandemic

The Guardian has emphasized risks that many countries, the United States first, they run underestimating Omicron and in general the still high potential of Covid-19 to still affect civilian life.

Stopping from one day to the next to pay attention to the rules that until now have helped us out of the critical phase is deleterious, as certified by US experts but also by Professor Roberto Cauda, ​​director of the Infectious Diseases department of the Gemelli Polyclinic, auditor Covid parameters of the government and scientific advisor of the European Medicines Agency (Ema).

Acting lightly, despite the general impression that the worst is over, does not help prevent the formation of new variants and the relative peak of reinfections. Let’s review the origins of the risks they are exposing themselves to in various global realities.

All the gaps in the system

Although the Italian context is largely different and we cannot absolutely model the American difficulties, the weaknesses of Washington and the federal states should and could make us reflect overseas too.

In particular, the Guardian, to take stock of the situation, consulted Denis Nash, an illustrious professor of epidemiology at the City University of New York School of Public Health.

The professor’s most recent studies on the New York pandemic trend have indeed revealed various flaws in the monitoring system from all over the States. In the Big Apple alone “it would appear that official case counts are underestimating the true burden of infection by about 30 times, which is a huge surprise.”

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The first problem is therefore the gaps in the case count. In fact, according to the teacher, New Yorkers probably have better access to tests than most of the country, which means that the global underestimation could be even worse elsewhere:

“It is very worrying. For me, it means that our ability to truly understand and anticipate the virus is undermined. “

Among the reasons for this lack of tracking there is also, as there is in Italy, a «huge disincentive” for many people to undergo the Covid test. The phenomenon is certified by Lara Jirmanus, a family doctor and clinical instructor at Harvard Medical School. According to Jirmanus, that you denounce the deleterious effect of an incessant “campaign of extreme reassurance” coming from the skeptical sector of the American media. Many are convinced that the virus is mild and that it will not affect their lives, but this is a gamble. The onset of mild symptoms is often minimized and the mild disease is mistaken for other reactions. But it is not enough to stay at home from work and school, it is necessary to verify through tests and leave a trace for the competent authorities. The reports are fundamental because, as we have actually seen from 2020 to this part, there are multiple types of responses to the virus and, in addition, checking that those who are positive remain in quarantine would avoid further spread. In short, without valid data on the true extent of Covid, it is more difficult to protect yourself and prevent new peaks.

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Finally, there is an aspect that is very likely to negatively influence the emergence of new variants:estate. To talk about it is Professor Cauda alla Stampa.it:

“Although it is more than likely that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to circulate in the coming months, certainly all conditions are in place for next summer to be safe and not very dissimilar to the pre-pandemic one. This provided that each of us lives it responsibly, aware that we are not yet out of the pandemic and that for this reason it is important, regardless of legal obligations, to continue to keep our guard up, especially in situations of risk, such as staying in closed and crowded places, in public transport “.

The more individuals are exposed to situations with a high risk of contagion, the more the transmission risks general mutations. Then when the obligations lapse the problem becomes greater since the risk is to recklessly reach a “free all”. Covid shouldn’t really upset our lives again, but a form of caution must always be maintained.

Underestimating the pandemic breeds new variants

Also an interview with the Press, Professor Cauda began as follows:

“In some countries, the United States, China, Portugal and Spain, there is an increase in cases that may be due, in part, to the later entry into these countries of the Omicron variant and, in the case of the United States, to the sub-variant BA2 .12.1. “.

This makes us understand how the real risk is not a danger of simple infection but of proliferation of new variables potentially less controllable than in the chain could continue to feed the global curve.

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Then another risk factor would be reinfections since according to Nash “we are not at a point where we can confidently say that each of these new spikes of variants will not result in a wave of deaths.”

In other words, the teacher always states:

“Simply deciding that it’s perfect for everyone to be infected three or four times a year in the future with a new virus whose effects we don’t fully understand is a huge, huge gamble. We simply do not know what Covid could bring in the future … we are playing with fire ».

The climate of tiredness and the widespread attitude of intolerance towards the rigid restrictions that in these two years have stood between individual freedom and public health and safety are not phenomena to which one can turn a blind eye. Spreading awareness of the difficulty of continuing the path towards normality smoothly and abruptly is more necessary than ever.

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