The Russian secret services have done their job halfway. They prepared the special operation well in advance, they infiltrated men in Ukraine and Europe, they were convinced of a favorable reception in the invaded country. But when it was time for the X hour they asked to postpone the attack as more time was needed. Suggestion rejected by Vladimir Putin.
These are the main conclusions of an interesting report by the British institute RUSI, one of the best in following the crisis. With a significant budget and theater experience at its disposal, the intelligence acted on several levels, trying to exploit many new and old banks. In some cases he bought accomplices, in others it forced them to collaborate, in still others it simply exploited the “sowing” prior to the assault and the pro-Russian component present in the country. Also according to the British investigation, the Russians could have counted on about 800 officials. An action that began in June 2021 and then continued on a wide scale in the following months. Electronic raids were intense, to cut off the enemy chain of command, to “isolate” radio and television communications, to plunder databases in which to fish information useful for creating proscription lists. Frequent use of torture in the territories, both to extract information and to create a regime of terror. The indications of the RUSI coincide with what emerged in various areas where the invaders acted.
Espionage has therefore obtained concrete results, he knew that the mission would have been difficult in any case and to be sure of success he would have preferred to wait. However, this prudent attitude did not convince the political leaders determined to launch the battalions across the border, confident that they can get rid of Ukraine at an acceptable cost. And here the services committed – according to RUSI – the accompanying error of assessment the illusion of a quick victory on the field, with the disintegration of the Zelensky government and the rapid collapse of Kiev. An interpretation also expressed by American “colleagues” who foresaw all of Russia’s moves, warned the international community of the imminent danger but told Congress that the Russians could take over Ukraine in a few weeks. For British analysts, the agents – as well as the generals of the Army – have lacked honesty and transparency, preferring in the end to support the leadership’s projects with “positive” or rosy reports. There was also a moment, which took place under the eyes of the cameras, which perfectly highlighted the dynamics. On the eve of the invasion, Putin humiliated a stammering Sergey Naryshkin, the head of the external service, on TV because he dared to suggest a diplomatic step.