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The size of the global pharmaceutical market was $1.5 trillion in 2022 and is estimated to reach $2.8 trillion by 2032, growing at an annual average of 6.4%. Therefore, although the positive trend is also confirmed for the next few years, the sector is unable to have as much satisfaction on the stock market. So much so that last year the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors recorded on average lower performances than the stock market, in the face of the launch of new drugs and mergers and acquisitions, which saw large groups in the sector as protagonists. One number above all: in the last year the S&P Pharmaceuticals index has a negative balance of 3.2% compared to a +20% of the S&P 500.
The acquisition of Catalent
Among the stocks that have outperformed the market and which, according to sector analysts, could also have positive performances in 2024, there is Novo Nordisk. Just yesterday Novo Holding, the group’s parent company, announced the acquisition of Catalent for $63.50 per share in an all-cash transaction. The price translates to a 16.5% premium to the company’s share price on February 2, the last trading day before the announcement.
After the news of the deal, which has a total value of 16.5 billion dollars, the shares of both companies moved upwards yesterday and Catalent gained over 10%. The Danish Novo Nordisk, specialized in the treatment of diabetes, haemophilia, growth disorders and hormone replacement therapy and producer of 49% of global insulin, has achieved a positive stock market balance of 69% in the last year and in the last five years by over 400%. A trend that according to analysts is destined to be confirmed in 2024, especially in light of the estimates made by the company only last week of another year of double-digit growth in revenues thanks to the increase in supplies in the United States of the slimming drug Wegovy.
The challenge in the US market
The European group also aims to challenge another pharma giant, Eli Lilly, which has already gained 22% on the stock market since the beginning of the year after achieving a return on investment of 61% in 2023. Expectations are now for the related data to the fourth quarter of 2023 of the US group, which will be released today. The stock moved higher on the eve of the feeling that last year’s budget could beat market estimates. The company’s forecasts for 2023 revenues indicated a range between $33.4 and $33.9 billion.
In Europa
Returning to Europe, the focus is on the performance of GlaxoSmithKline shares (+13.5% in the last year). Last week the British group announced revenues growing by 5% at constant exchange rates to 30.3 billion pounds (+14% excluding the decline in sales of products related to Covid) and a profit increasing by 9% to £6.1 billion.