What excitement last week about the death data that the AfD presented at a press conference on Monday after requesting accounting data from the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. There was talk of a huge jump in selected causes of death in 2021 compared to the previous years 2016 to 2019, and that this could actually only be explained by the corona vaccination.
The lateral-thinking forums once again saw evidence of their repeated assertion of mass vaccine deaths, people with experience in dealing with health data immediately contradicted them, the basis of numerous fact-check articles in large and small “mainstream media”.
Yesterday, the Federal Statistical Office published the cause of death statistics for 2021. I’ve already dealt with that briefly. Here again for you to look at for yourself the history of the causes of death selected by the AfD for their press conference since 1998. The time window that the AfD looked at in the KBV data – with completely unsuitable data – is the one framed in red.
There are no jumps in the selected ICD digits. The ICD number R99 brings the largest number of cases into the ICD basket of the AfD – a collective category that contains everything possible, you could write a separate blog post about it. If you draw a trend curve through the long-term trend of R99 cases, the number 2021 is right on trend. The second-largest number is the ICD digit R98, which, contrary to the long-term trend, even went down a bit in 2020 and 2021. The rest is rubbish and shows no dramatic upward trend.
If the AfD and its “data analyst” Tom Lausten now say that they couldn’t have known that the KBV had sent them a data set selected for doctor visits in 2021, that they had assumed that the deaths of all those with statutory health insurance were included, this is evidence of multiple negligence in handling the requested data. They have neither thought about whether the KBV can have representative data on deaths at all, nor whether the case numbers for the years before 2021 halfway match those of the cause of death statistics – until 2020 the cause of death statistics were available at the press conference. The hospital statistics, by the way, which document inpatient deaths, unlike the KBV data, even including the privately insured.
What remains is the question of the deaths of the years 2016-2019 in the KBV data, for which services by resident doctors were still documented in 2021. The ZI states that there may be rare input errors in manual coding (billions of ICD codes are processed every year) or errors in the billing itself, the latter were then corrected in the billing process and no longer in the KBV data set. If that’s the case, the KBV would have written it better foolproof when handing over the data to the AfD. And for input errors, more sensitive plausibility routines should perhaps be programmed in the future.
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Edit: In the first version, the red frame was only raised until 2019.