The priority is to face the energy emergency. A real mantra for the new government and above all for the next tenant in via XX Settembre, who will have to start from there to build the maneuver for 2023. But already with this and the necessary interventions on pensions and taxes, the bill of the law the budget is already salty and jeopardizes the possibility of finding space for the many wishes of politics. Although some help could come from the agreement found in the EU on gas which, assures the outgoing premier Mario Draghi, “will soon translate into lower bills”. In any case, the finding of resources will be crucial, starting with the big crux of the budget gap. The outgoing government has avoided using it until the end. And even today the almost ex-minister of the economy Daniele Franco warns: “we need a lot of caution and a pragmatic approach”. Because the lesson that comes from the United Kingdom also teaches prudence on the expectations that are created: if the deficit objectives are changed “to increase investment and research – he explains to Corriere della Sera – it is more likely that the reaction of the markets will not be negative “.
On this point, the center-right appears divided, between Salvini who has been insisting for months and Meloni who continues to define him as the extreme ratio. The new Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, is not against it, but remains cautious and considers it not the path but a possible option to consider. Certainly a complex challenge awaits the new owner of via XX Settembre. To be managed in a very short time. The first step is the extension until the end of the year of aid to families and businesses expiring in November, which will probably result in an amendment to the aid decree ter (which begins the examination by the special commission on 26), but the real bank of proof will be the maneuver. First, the Nadef and the Dpb need to be integrated with the programmatic framework, which will provide a first snapshot of the resources and economic policy indications for the budget law. The maneuver will necessarily start from the new support on the expensive-energy front to secure the first quarter of the year: a voice that risks absorbing more than the 20 billion needed to replicate what the outgoing government has done.
Then there is the crux of pensions: in addition to the revaluation of checks, for an expenditure of 8-10 billion, there is also the need to intervene to prevent a return to the Fornero law in 2023 and on this we are studying different roads, first of all a Quota 41 with an age threshold that would also make it possible to reduce spending considerably. It is also likely that continuity will be guaranteed to the 2-point cut of the tax wedge (which costs 4.5 billion), while the road to the Flat tax appears to be uphill, with the League pushing for an extension of up to 100,000 euros in turnover and the president of Confindustria Carlo Bonomi who calls for caution on electoral promises (“Flat tax? It depends on which”). The renewal of PA contracts must also be included in the expenditure item, while in the revenue chapter there could be 3-4 billion of cohesion funds that the EU has allowed to use for expensive energy and the possible lower expenditure from changes to the income of citizenship or the rescheduling of the Superbonus. Some resources could also come from a hypothetical new scrapping of the folders.