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In 2021, new crown epidemics caused by mutant strains have been one after another in China. The Guangzhou epidemic in February, the epidemic that spread from Nanjing Airport to many places in July and August, followed by the local confirmed cases in Fujian and Heilongjiang in September, have not stopped completely yet.
The global scientific community has reached a consensus that the new coronavirus will not disappear in a short time, and humans must learn to coexist with the new coronavirus. Why do Chinese policymakers still insist on the goal of zero clearing? This is not a simple public health problem. There is a game between political and economic dividends and trade-offs behind it.
China has so far regarded itself as a beneficiary of the zero-clearing policy. In 2020, China implemented strict internal and external controls to temporarily disappear the epidemic and quickly restarted its economy. In that year, China’s GDP grew by 2.3% year-on-year, making it the only major economy in the world that achieved positive growth.
However, the global epidemic prevention pattern and economic recovery trend are changing in 2021. Some experts believe that the sustainability of China’s zero-clearing policy is worrying, and that long-term “retreat” will cost society a huge price.
The costs and benefits of zeroing
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China implements strict immigration control and centralized isolation policies.
Dr. Mai He from the Department of Pathology and Immunology of the University of Washington in the United States analyzed the BBC’s Chinese language and said that there is a feeling of luxury when talking about long-term absolute zeroing. Possibly. And there are many strange things about the new coronavirus. Originally, the toxicity of the new coronavirus should become lower and lower with the mutation, but the mutant strain Delta is not. So our knowledge of the new coronavirus is still being updated.”
But Li Zhaobo, honorary faculty and researcher of the Asia-Pacific Business Institute of the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Business School, told BBC Chinese that “China may benefit from the zero-clearing policy instead of paying a price for it.”
Li Zhaobo believes: “China’s domestic market is huge. The middle class is larger than that in the United States, so it’s not in a hurry to restore population mobility. In addition, if the border is open, the movement of people means the inflow and outflow of people and capital. The outflow of capital is (China) The central government is concerned about the issue. Therefore, China is not in a hurry to open its economy. The Western open model cannot be compared with China, because China’s economy is always semi-open, restricting the flow of people, capital and information.”
Under the zero-clearing policy, Chinese cities where confirmed cases are found will immediately adopt multiple rounds of nucleic acid testing and strict blockades to restrict residents’ travel.
Hu Rong, co-assistant professor of real estate and finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Business School, told BBC Chinese: “This will have a significant impact on the local economic development and people’s social life, bringing considerable difficulties and inconveniences, and a large number of group tests. It is also time-consuming and labor-intensive. However, after the local spread is effectively controlled, in the long run, if the epidemic does not rebound, social and economic life can be recovered more quickly and effectively, and a safer environment will affect people. Psychology also has an important influence, and the spiritual aspect has been positively improved.”
Although China’s economy has recovered and life has returned to normal on the whole, many companies and individuals have been greatly affected at the micro level. One view is that their impact and losses are often placed in the context of the overall recovery and growth of the Chinese economy, so they are easily overlooked. The inefficiency and huge social cost of national testing for virus defense are not worth the gain.
After the outbreak in Fujian in September, multiple rounds of nucleic acid testing were conducted in many cities. Xiamen, which has a permanent population of 5 million, has carried out at least four rounds of national nucleic acid testing; Putian has a permanent population of approximately 3.2 million and has also carried out multiple rounds of nucleic acid testing.
An epidemic in Heilongjiang Province in northeastern China began at the end of September, and nucleic acid tests were conducted in many cities. As of October 4, Harbin, the provincial capital with a population of about 10 million, has undergone five rounds of nucleic acid testing. Other cities are also conducting multiple rounds of testing.
In addition, closed management in many places has caused companies to stop work and production, and some small companies have broken their capital chains and led to bankruptcy. The data of these losses are lagging behind and cannot be quantified in detail at present.
He Mai believes: “Enterprises are also a kind of life. Many companies fail, and there is no life.”
The zero-clearing policy means strict control of the customs and strict restrictions on the flow of people and goods. Jin Dongyan, a virologist and professor in the Department of Biochemistry at the Li Ka-shing School of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong, pointed out that “China’s strict prevention of death is basically regarded as a retreat. If things go on like this, it may undermine China’s efforts to reform and opening up for so many years. The closure has also caused many problems.”
After the outbreak of the epidemic, Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland were strictly closed for 600 days, and normal trade activities were severely affected. At the end of September, a Hong Kong policewoman died in the fight against water smuggling. Jin Dongyan pointed out that the recent smuggling problem in Hong Kong caused the sacrifice of the female police and was part of the price.
In addition, there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese and Hong Kong families whose normal life and contacts have been affected because of the customs, which is not conducive to the exchanges between the two places, causing inconvenience to the lives of many families. Jin Dongyan said: “It hurts the integration of the people of the two places.”
“Political Dividend”
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The zero-clearing policy endorses the legitimacy of the ruling party and facilitates the promotion of the superiority of the Chinese system
China is not unaware of the cost of the zero-clearing policy, but the policy endorses the legitimacy of the ruling party and facilitates the promotion of the superiority of the Chinese system. Driven by the political dividend, the policy can continue to be implemented.
In the summer of 2021, after the Jiangsu epidemic spread to the whole of China, there were voices in China that coexisted with the virus, but the former Chinese Minister of Health Gao Qiang retorted sternly, emphasizing that “the new crown epidemic should be eliminated in the ocean of the people’s war.” .
Dr Nicholas Thomas, an associate professor at the City University of Hong Kong and an expert in public health management, once commented that China’s zero-clearing policy is a key indicator of the legitimacy of the (CCP). Compared with the size of China’s population, the ratio of confirmed cases/death is indeed very successful in China.
As of September 29, among China’s 1.45 billion people, approximately 96,000 have been diagnosed with the new crown virus and 4636 have died.
But Jin Dongyan believes that exercise prevention and control can be done well in the short term and the epidemic can be contained. But it is not sustainable. Because this is a great sacrifice and price in exchange. If things go on like this, only disturbance to the people and waste of resources will remain.
In addition, there are also problems of different calibers in terms of new crown death statistics. Up to now, the official data of the United States is that the country has 333 million people, 33 million cases have been confirmed, and 689,000 people have died.
One of the daily tasks of Dr. Mai He from the Department of Pathology and Immunology of the University of Washington is to identify the cause of death and issue a death certificate. He told the BBC Chinese reporter that there is a possibility of “false reports” in the death data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The real deaths in the United States from the new crown may only be 10% of the CDC’s announcement.
He explained that the United States will even die in a car accident, and it happens that a person infected with the new crown virus is identified as having died of the new crown virus.
Future variables
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In Hong Kong, where information and research are more open and transparent, research shows that the effectiveness of Kexing vaccine decreases after a few months. China may urgently need a more effective mRNA vaccine to help it increase the vaccination rate, in order to achieve the purpose of temporarily closing the physical space to increase its domestic new crown vaccination rate.
The fastest option is to introduce mature foreign technology. But China seems to be inclined to independently develop mRNA vaccines.
As of press time, China has not approved any foreign mRNA vaccines. At the same time, three domestic R&D teams in China are conducting independent research and development of mRNA vaccines.
Jin Dongyan pointed out: “The effectiveness of Chinese vaccines is indeed not as good as Pfizer or Modena vaccines. If life is truly respected, Chinese people should be given better vaccines. Why is the foreign Fubitai vaccine not approved? The epidemic is coming again, yes. It will die.”
Competition for economic recovery may become the next focus. The global battle against the new crown virus has entered its second year, and economies such as the European Union and the United States have experienced strong economic recovery.
In the first half of 2021, the US GDP grew by 6% year-on-year; the European Union grew by 6.1% year-on-year; China grew by 12.7% year-on-year.
Reuters predicts that China’s economic growth in the second half of the year will further slow down and the economy will face downward pressure.
The United Kingdom, the European Union, and Singapore have adopted strategies to coexist with the virus, gradually liberalizing border restrictions and restoring personnel exchanges.
Different from China’s former Minister of Health Gao Qiang’s either-or attitude, Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of the Department of Microbiology at the University of Hong Kong, believes that “containment and clearance” and “coexistence with the virus” are not contradictory. He believes that coexistence policies should be discussed in depth.
Hu Rong believes that “the speed of recovery also depends on the mutational development process of the new coronavirus itself and the progress of the corresponding vaccine and drug research and development. On the one hand, if the new coronavirus gradually becomes flu, then the global epidemic prevention will adopt Western coexistence with the virus accordingly. However, if the new crown virus continues to produce more destructive mutations, then global epidemic prevention will accordingly adopt stricter policies similar to China. I believe that the final global epidemic recovery will be from the West’s coexistence policy with the virus and China Gained important experience in the specific practice of the zero-clearing policy.”
“The two policies of the East and the West have their own characteristics and it is difficult to compare simply,” she said.