The countdown to the general elections on Sunday 25 September has begun. It is a question of understanding what the post-vote scenarios could be, party by party.
FdI, the challenge for Meloni: from opposition leader to majority leadership
Despite the blackout of the polls, no one doubts that Fratelli d’Italia will be the winner of this electoral round. The question is how long the bar will stop. This will be the thermometer to decide whether it is a crushing victory or rather lower than the (high) and growing expectations inside and outside Giorgia Meloni’s party. If the leader of Fdi confirms them, it will be easier for her to get to Palazzo Chigi. His investiture as premier is in fact the goal and the parliamentary strength of Fdi will be decisive in maintaining it. In fact, for Meloni the difficulty will begin on 26 September. The electoral verdict will mark his transition from opposition leader to majority leadership. The responsibilities are obviously very different and the voters do not seem inclined to give time (Renzi, Grillo and Salvini are ready to testify). The risk of consuming part of the painstakingly collected consensus in these 4 years is a far from remote possibility. Meloni is the first to be aware of this. All the more so in a complex phase such as the current one. Nobody will give her discounts, first of all her allies, Lega and Forza Italia. We already have confirmation now. The positions taken on the war and the relationship with Russia have seen Meloni and the leader of the League distant on several occasions, even if in the last week Salvini has definitely steered towards a position more in line with the Euro-Atlantic one. The secretary of the Carroccio, however, continues to beat on the deviation, on the use of the deficit to mitigate the expensive bills and ensures that the flat tax and share 41 for pensions will arrive. Meloni, on the other hand, preaches prudence and balanced public finances. A premier in pectore posture. If it results in a success in the polls beyond expectations, this will provide it with the oxygen necessary to face the difficult departure of the new government: the confrontation with the allies for the formation of the team and above all the choices to be immediately based in the Budget law on which the eyes of the Italians, of its constituents but also of Brussels and the markets are focused.
Lega, Salvini’s role in the party and in the government depends on the electoral result
Matteo Salvini has decided to conclude the election campaign with a non-stop online marathon. The leader of the League awaits the results of the count with trepidation. For the first time, in fact, his leadership is also at stake. In the Carroccio that prides itself on being “the last Leninist party”, the Chief is not discussed. Not now. But a moment after the conclusion of the count will open the showdown. The secretary’s loyalists recall that before his advent at the secretariat in via Bellerio, the League was at risk of disappearing (at the 2013 policies it collected just 4.1%) while with Salvini it reached over 17% in 2018 and 34% at the Europeans of the following year. But these considerations are unlikely to be enough to appease the criticisms. And the reason is this: not only the objective of making the League a national party is limping but the consensus in the North – as certified even in the last administrative offices – has dropped worryingly in favor of Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy. It never happened. It means that the hard core of the Carroccio is shattering and this could also be reflected in the future leader of Lombardy who will go to the vote next spring. Perhaps also for this reason in this final phase of the electoral campaign Salvini has returned to insist on the theme of the differentiated autonomy of the Regions. Will it be enough? We will see. Also because his role not only in the League but in the Government will depend on the electoral result. The leader of the Carroccio makes no secret of wanting to return to the Viminale, as happened in the days of the yellow-green government. Then, however, the League came to the negotiating table with a strong 17.4%. This time it will be more complicated. And not only for the numerical data but because on the other side we will find Giorgia Meloni and the weapon of “I’m not there” with an ally at the top of the preferences of the center-right is unloaded, even more so if you have emerged weakened from the polls and with the budget session open, that is, with very little time to agree on the government team.
Forza Italia, the game is played on the votes in the South and on the consent of the moderates
Even his opponents acknowledge that he is very good at sniffing the air, at understanding how to move in the electoral campaign. For this reason, particular attention must be paid to the statements by Silvio Berlusconi, who began by talking about minimum pensions of one thousand euros, then swerved on citizenship income arguing that it should not be repealed but reformed up to the daily tam tam on Forza Italia, the only centrist party firmly anchored. to the EPP, to Europe and to the Atlantic Pact. Let’s start from here, from this extreme synthesis of the Cavaliere’s electoral campaign to understand what is at stake for the Azzurri. The ascent to the South of the 5 Star Movement, confirmed by all the latest polls published, triggered the alarm in Arcore. The Mezzogiorno in fact remains the main electoral basin of Forza Italia which must watch its back not only from Giorgia Meloni but also from Giuseppe Conte. Hence the stance on citizenship income to also mark the difference with Fdi and not to hand over consents to M5s. The other swerve, on the other hand, is probably caused by the risk of overtaking the so-called “Third pole” led by Calenda and Renzi and into which a series of former force troops (including Mara Carfagna and Mariastella Gelmini) also converged. Action-Italia viva’s wager is to attract the vote of the “moderates”. Hence the accusations against Berlusconi of having contributed to “topple Draghi” and of not taking clear positions against Putin. It is difficult to make predictions but it is clear that if the “terzopolisti” really get a good electoral result by overtaking Forza Italia, it will be tough for the Azzurri because it would be the first time that a new “centrist” political formation bypasses Forza Italia. However, as always, the number of seats collected will be decisive. Only if they are essential to the departure and maintenance of the probable center-right government, the Knight will still have room for maneuver.
For the Democratic Party, the psychological threshold of 20% and the Congress already started
The psychological threshold for the secretary Enrico Letta and for the various souls of the Democratic Party is 20%: below it would be a bloodbath, which would be paired with that 18.9% of Matteo Renzi of 2018 repeatedly reproached to the former secretary ( “The worst result in the history of the Democratic Party, Renzi tried to destroy the party”, recently re-launched Letta himself). Below 20% it is foreseeable to imagine the immediate resignation of Letta, the transition to the gregarious deputy secretary Irene Tinagli and the calling of the congress. Congress that, in any case, must be held with any result: the deadline is March 2023, four years after the last primary that crowned Nicola Zingaretti in 2019, and according to the statute it must be convened six months earlier. But 20% for Letta would not be enough to stay in the saddle. The secretary and former premier could think of running in the dem primaries only if the Democratic Party approaches the opponents of the Brothers of Italy and detaches its rival Giuseppe Conte, president of the M5s, by several points. Otherwise, even if the Democratic Party were to hold on without sinking, there will be a change of leadership in the coming months: it is known that the governor of Emilia Romagna Stefano Bonaccini has been on the track for a long time now. A former DS, Bonaccini is nevertheless outspokenly reformist and for this reason he has the support of the minority of the former Renzians of the reformist Base, the current of Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini who, however, does not have a strong representation in the party. It is no coincidence that the Emilian governor thinks of building his electoral campaign by relying on the network of mayors and administrators including the first citizens of Milan and Bergamo, Beppe Sala and Giorgio Gori. The left has its representatives in Andrea Orlando and Giuseppe Provenzano, but in the Latian house they are thinking of opposing Bonaccini precisely the vice president of the Emilia Romagna Region, Elly Schlein: young, woman, coming from the left (he was with Giuseppe Civati and his Possible training), it could be the right candidacy to unite the left and civil society by speaking to the world of youth. But two stone guests will also participate in the congress of the Democratic Party, namely the M5s and the Third pole of Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi. Aligning with the former or with the latter? It is clear that if Conte were to obtain the expected success in the South and arrive at a national level at a percentage close to that of the Democratic Party, the theme of the reconstruction of the Giallorossi axis with the pentastellati, which has always been supported by the left of the party, will prevail. But it is also clear that in this case the Democratic Party would return to a position of subjection to the M5s, opening the way to a future for Mélenchon and putting the reformists of the Democratic Party, Europeanists and convinced Atlanticists, in crisis. Who would have a better chance of making their positions prevail in the event of a good success of the Third Pole. Bonaccini, whose relations of political friendship with Renzi are known, somehow put his hands forward to avoid the accusation of “renzismo”, arguing in recent days the need for dialogue with the M5s starting from the regional ones in the spring of 2023. But keeping everyone together is almost impossible: the Democratic Party will have to define its identity once and for all, starting from the alliances.