The cost of energy looks like a coin. And just like a medal, it has two sides. According to Nomisma Energia, a reduction can be seen on the horizon for electricity tariffs, while gas tariffs will increase. President Davide Tabarelli says: in the first case «the variation estimated on the basis of wholesale electricity prices, which are reduced by the pressure of gas prices, is of the order of 25%, about 16 eurocents less per kWh than it should bring tariffs back towards 50 cents per kWh». The Arera will announce the change by the end of the year. As for gas, however, the scenario is very different: “a 20% increase in December bills to 1.48 euros per cubic meter” is expected.
Nomisma Energy: for expected light -25% and for gas +20%
In summary, the expectation is for a 25% drop in electricity, and a 20% increase in the gas bill. But why should all this happen? Tabarelli himself provides us with the keys to interpreting what is happening. The question is: why does gas go up and electricity go down?
«The time lag of the calculation and the different reference period are the cause of the confusion on the tariffs – explains the president of Nomisma Energia -, with gas still increasing, while electricity finally decreases. From 1 January, in a few days, the electricity tariffs on the protected sector should drop, with a drop of the order of 25%, a very intense drop due to the fact that they remained unchanged for three months, over the entire last quarter of 2022, with the last adjustment made at the end of September, when international reference prices had reached historic peaks».
The scenario at the end of September
«Gas – continues Tabarelli – then had exceeded 300 euros per megawatt hour on the TTF and had pushed the electricity market price to 700 euros per megawatt hour, while today we have gone back respectively to 80 euros for gas and 200 for electricity . Since for electricity bills the old calculation system has remained which fixes the tariffs for each quarter in advance, the reference prices are the relatively low ones of these days for the first of 2023. Therefore – the expert continues -, after a series of continuous increases, finally we should have a drop of 25%, with tariffs that will drop from 66 euro cents per kilowatt hour to values around 50 cents, levels, unfortunately, still more than double compared to those we had before onset of the crisis.
We still have to wait for a drop in the price of gas
So far electricity. The picture changes (and a lot) for gas. «We still have to wait – confirms Tabarelli -, because the mechanism establishes that prices are fixed after the end of the reference month with the average of the actual prices. Thus, in the first days of January, the Authority will have the average gas price for December which includes the very high values, over €140 per megawatt hour, at the beginning of the month, almost double the current figures. The average should be significantly higher than in November and result in an increase in bills of about 20%. However, if the prices of these days remain around €80 per megawatt hour, then for the next calculation at the beginning of February 2023 for the January 2023 bills, we will have reductions of the order of 30%».