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DAX – Perfect formation – goal initially achieved
Even if the current formation only partially represents a flag (the rising movement is not steep enough), it can at least be said to be a trend-confirming corrective movement. Measuring the movement from the last low to this correction shows that the price target (marked upward from the breakout of the correction) is almost reached. The indicators are still in overbought territory and have not yet generated any sell signals. This would not be as meaningful in this stable trend as in a sideways trend. The sales that increased on Friday should also not be overstated, as it was the Witches’ Sabbath, i.e. the triple Options & Futures expiry date. However, the candle on Friday with the intraday change in sentiment does not bode well for the start of the week. A corrective movement in the existing upward trend should be expected, despite the positive seasonal phase that is now beginning.
Dow Jones – Losing momentum suggests a corrective movement
A few weeks ago, the Dow Jones corrected in the form of a sideways movement. The now waning upward momentum also suggests such a correction, which could also take place as a sideways trend. But a limited downward movement cannot be ruled out. The divergences in the indicators are probably already taken into account when determining the price. The sell signals have probably already been processed. Therefore, a corrective movement should not be too severe.
Gold – heading to new highs or lows?
The price of the world‘s most sought-after precious metal has skyrocketed in recent weeks. At times, gold even touched the $2,200 mark per ounce. However, you should always keep in mind that gold is not rising, but that the currencies against it are becoming weaker and weaker. Gold ultimately only maintains its purchasing power. This has always been the case and will continue to be the case in the future within the known framework. Therefore, a technical analysis on gold is, strictly speaking, a technical analysis on currencies. Regardless of this, it can currently be observed that the indicators have given sell signals or, as in the case of the MACD indicator, are about to do so. After the steep rise, at least a sideways correction is now likely to take place.
Oil – Moved into resistance area but not broken out yet
Oil North Sea Brent Futures (linked)
After oil has been working at the resistance area for several weeks now, it has been observed moving into this zone in the last few days. There is still a lot of strength missing for an upward breakout, especially since the indicators have entered overbought territory. Therefore, an upward breakout is not expected in the short term.
Bitcoin/USD – The calm before the storm?
A few weeks ago I drew attention to our chart show from February 13th of this year, in which we pointed out the upcoming “Halving”.
. To understand the context, it makes sense to watch this program again. The unbridled rise has recently come to a halt, which is not surprising given such a steep upward trend. Profit-taking is not uncommon even with such hype. The indicators are in overbought territory or have already generated sell signals. This is healthy for the further trend. The movement that has begun is likely to expand somewhat as the sell signals are just beginning to take effect. With the said “halving” an upward movement should then occur again.
What Charts: ProRealTime.com
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Christoph Geyer, CFTe, Lindenstr. 31, 65232 Taunusstein Germany www.christophgeyer.de
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