Early elections on September 25 have as a consequence that the formation of the new government will overlap with the budget session, which by December 31st it must lead to the approval of the 2023 maneuver. If this does not happen, the provisional exercise will start (which basically means that budget changes cannot be adopted and we must limit ourselves to ordinary administration). It seems like an exceptional event, yet in the first Republic it was used 33 times.
With the elections on 25 September and the first convocation of the Chambers set for 13 October, the new executive who will exit the vote (in the hypothesis, far from obvious, that the polls give a certain and cohesive majority as their response) will not be able to settle before November 7. By that date, the Update Note to the Def (September 27), the draft budgetary plan (October 15) and presented the budget bill (October 20), the actual maneuver.
The role of the Draghi government
With these tight deadlines, the most probable hypothesis is that the Draghi government presents in September an update note to the Def (with the new estimates of indicators such as GDP, Debt-GDP and Deficit-GDP, it is the basis of the new maneuver) only existing legislation (without the policy framework) and various a budget bill limited to obligatory refinancing. Then, it will be up to the new government to present a maxi-amendment in Parliament with the actual maneuver.
It must be said that in past years the deadline of October 20 has been anything but peremptory, with governments that have often launched the maneuver in the Council of Ministers. end of Octoberto then deposit it in Parliament 10-15 days after. Last year the Draghi government approved the maneuver on October 28 in the CDM and it was presented to the Senate on November 11. The text was then approved by the Senate, with amendments, on December 24th and “ratified” by the Chamber on December 30th. In essence, the political forces that will form the new majority, if they want to avoid the provisional exercise, will have to think about the skeleton of the new maneuver well before the new government takes office.
How to launch the provisional exercise …
The provisional exercise of the budget in theory is an extraordinary measure that should rarely be applied, even if, since the date of entry into force of the Constitution, 42 laws have given the green light to this instrument (33 for effective authorization and 9 for guarantee an extension). The Constitution (article 81), in fact, provides for two conditions: first, that the measure is formally authorized by one law; secondly, the provisional exercise can last a maximum four months (the extension can only take place within this time interval).