IN elections questioned after the exclusion of candidates (among them the right-wing and favorite Carlos Pineda), the persecution of journalists and former anti-corruption prosecutors, as well as high distrust with the electoral authorities, Guatemalans will vote tomorrow to elect president, predicting that there will be a second lap.
Some 9.4 million Guatemalans are empowered to elect the successor to right-wing president Alejandro Giammattei, branded as “authoritarian” and disapproved by 75% of citizens, according to surveys, in a country with high rates of violence, corruption and poverty.
The former Social Democratic first lady Sandra Torres leads the intention to vote (21.3%), followed by the former centrist diplomat Edmond Mulet (13.4%), according to the latest survey by the ProDatos firm. In third place (9.1%) is the right-wing Zury Ríos, daughter of the late former military dictator Efraín Ríos Montt (1982-1983), and fourth is the pro-governmentist Manuel Conde (5.8%).
This survey suggests that there will be a runoff on August 20, since no candidate would exceed 50% plus one vote to win the presidency in the first round.
There are 22 presidential candidates in the elections, something common in Guatemala, in which 160 deputies, 340 mayors and 20 representatives to the Central American Parliament will also be elected. Voting is voluntary and re-election is prohibited.
None of the four main candidates promotes legalizing equal marriages or abortion, which is only allowed if there is a risk to the mother.
Voting centers will open at 07:00 local (13:00 GMT) and close at 18:00 (00:00 GMT). The first official scrutinies will be known about three hours later. From noon on Saturday there will be dry law for 42 hours.
Almost 3,500 voting centers will operate on the Caribbean coasts inhabited mainly by the Garífuna ethnic group, the jungle area of Mayan monuments of Petén on the border with Mexico and Belize, the western highlands or the capital in the center of the country.
There will also be voting centers in 15 cities in the United States, where 2.8 million Guatemalans live, although only 90,000 are registered to vote.
Criticism for the lack of transparency of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), of five magistrates, has caused distrust and lack of interest among citizens, which would explain the increase in those who are going to vote null to a record of 13.5%, according to the ProData survey. In the first round of 2019 the zero number was 4.1%
Right-wing businessman Carlos Pineda and left-wing indigenous leader Thelma Cabrera were excluded from the race for justice and the TSE, respectively.
“Nicaraguan Model”
Analysts, NGOs, indigenous leaders and the candidate Mulet have raised their voices in the face of what they consider to be a growing control of State institutions by powerful political and business sectors, in order to maintain corruption and impunity.
Under Giammattei’s mandate, a dozen former prosecutors who worked with the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), a UN entity that operated as a parallel prosecutor’s office and that uncovered notorious cases of corruption between 2007 and 2019, were arrested.
In addition, the founder of a newspaper critical of the government, José Rubén Zamora, was sentenced this month to six years in prison for money laundering, in a trial denounced by international press organizations. His newspaper ceased publication on May 15.
“All state institutions, including the electoral process, are being manipulated by power groups linked to corruption and the traditional oligarchic power,” said Edie Cux, director of the local chapter of the NGO Transparency International.
In these elections, “the rule of law, democracy and all guarantees and freedoms for the entire population” are at stake, he warned.
“We are slowly slipping towards an authoritarian model. I’m not saying dictatorship at the moment, but authoritarian, the Nicaraguan model, for example,” said Mulet, a 72-year-old lawyer who held high-ranking positions at the UN.
At the campaign closings, Mulet vowed to deploy the army to fight crime in Guatemala, while his right-wing rival Ríos vowed to put God at the “center” of the Central American country.
10 million poor
Guatemala is one of the most unequal countries in Latin America, according to the World Bank, where 10.3 million of its 17.6 million inhabitants live in poverty and one in two children under five suffers from chronic malnutrition, according to the UN.
Another overwhelming problem is insecurity: the homicide rate is 17.3 per 100,000 inhabitants in Guatemala, triple the world average, according to the UN.
Poverty and violence drive thousands of Guatemalans to emigrate to the United States. The remittances they send to their families, 18,000 million dollars in 2022, represent 19% of the national GDP.
If the polls are correct, the run-off in August will be between the communication graduate and textile businesswoman, Sandra Torres (68 years old) and the former diplomat and fierce opponent of the current government, Mulet, (72 years old).
Torres supported the CICIG, a UN entity that operated as a parallel prosecutor’s office and uncovered notorious cases of corruption, between 2007 and 2019. It is not his first attempt for the Presidency since he lost the ballot to Jimmy Morales (2015) and Giammattei ( 2019).
For his part, Mulet began his political career in the 90’s. In 1992 he presided over Congress and later was ambassador to the United States and the European Union.
At the UN, he was chief of staff of Secretary General Ban Ki-moon (2015-2016) and Deputy Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations, in 2007-2010 and 2011-2015. In addition, he directed the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti in 2006-2007 and 2010-2011./AFP Summary
THERE ARE 22 candidates but the fight for the presidency of Guatemala will be between the social democrat Sandra Torres and the centrist Edmond Mulet./Montage El Nuevo Siglo