[Epoch Times, September 14, 2022](Reported by Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Li Xin’an) On September 12, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Xi Jinping will start from Wednesday (September 14) to Friday (16) Visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, and attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on the 15th and 16th. This is Xi’s first foreign visit in nearly three years, and he may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the summit.
Two overseas Chinese scholars analyzed the Epoch Times separately and believed that Xi Jinping’s foreign visit is not only for maintaining the stability of the “Belt and Road”, but also involving the long-term strategic ambition of a coalition of the CCP to fight against the democratic world.
Is Xi’s visit to Central Asia under the shadow of war a matter of the CCP’s ambition?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (the SCO for short) is a regional security group established in 2001 by China, Russia and Central Asian countries. The group expanded its membership in 2017 to include India and Pakistan. In September 2021, the organization started the process of accepting Iran as a member. Turkey is a dialogue partner of the SCO, but Turkey is a member of NATO.
Hu Ping, a scholar in the United States and honorary editor-in-chief of “Beijing Spring”, analyzed the Epoch Times on September 13: For the CCP, the status of the SCO is still quite important. Because the SCO is a very important part of the CCP’s “One Belt, One Road”. Especially now that the CCP and Western countries are facing increasing confrontation, Xi Jinping will attach great importance to this meeting.
This summit was held under the huge shadow of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. Kazakhstan, a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, supported Ukraine, while the CCP supported Russia’s invasion to varying degrees. Ukraine was originally one of the first countries to accept the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Hu Ping said that because the CCP supports Russia to fight Ukraine, of course Ukraine is very unhappy, and because Ukraine is in a state of war, the CCP’s “One Belt, One Road” plan will inevitably be shelved and suffer many negative impacts. But he (Xi Jinping) still hopes that the Central Asian countries can maintain this aspect.
Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan on Wednesday, where he first laid out the trade and infrastructure plan that came to be known as the Belt and Road Initiative nine years ago. But in recent years, the “Belt and Road” has increasingly become the focus of G7 countries led by the United States. The G7 officially launched the “Global Infrastructure and Investment Partnership” at a summit in June this year, pledging to raise $600 billion in private and public funds to fund the infrastructure needed in developing countries to counter China’s “Belt and Road” initiative .
Professor Feng Chongyi of the University of Technology Sydney, Australia, told The Epoch Times on September 13 that from a geopolitical perspective, the world is now a confrontation between Eurasia and maritime countries, and in fact it is a confrontation between autocratic and democratic worlds.
“Democracies are led by the United States, including the Five Eyes alliance, as well as the European alliance. This is the advantage of maritime countries to control the world since the seventeenth century. Now Russia, China and Central Asian countries belong to another plate, called Eurasia. This area was dominated by the Soviet Union during the first Cold War. At that time, the communist camp, China, Russia and Eastern Europe, were connected together. They were to compete with these maritime countries.”
He said that the CCP has long had an ambition to use the Eurasian continent as its hinterland to compete with Europe and the United States, and to become a confrontation between an authoritarian regime and a democratic world in world politics. Now that Russia is in decline, the CCP wants to dominate Eurasia to compete with Europe and the United States.
Feng Chongyi said that the CCP wanted to give up such a goal during the Deng Xiaoping era, but after the economy developed to a certain level, it began to continue at the end of Hu Jintao’s time. Since the financial crisis in the West in 2008, the CCP’s cultural and propaganda system has been constantly talking about the rise of China and the rise of the military.
Feng Chongyi said that Xi Jinping’s specific goal is to join forces with Russia to establish an Axis Alliance, an alliance belonging to an autocratic regime. The key is that the information and judgments Xi Jinping has received about the Russian-Ukrainian war may be different from the outside world.
“Russia has been defeated, but according to Xi Jinping’s character, even if he hits the southern wall, he will not necessarily turn back. This is a threat to the Chinese nation and the world, that is, even if he perishes together, he will not look back. So now he is going to Central Asia. Continuing to join forces with Russia, in addition to geopolitical[factors]there are also personal factors of the autocratic ruler, which is a matter of his character and judgment.”
However, Feng Chongyi believes that countries including Kazakhstan are not of the same mind with the CCP. They have some interests to interact with. These Central Asian countries have natural gas resources. In fact, they most hope to open up the channel with Europe. At present, they are eating from both ends, and both sides want to be connected. As for countries like Ukraine and Eastern Europe, their goal is to join the alliance of Europe and the United States, rather than move closer to China and Russia. They have completed the transition to constitutional democracy to a considerable extent, and their centripetal force is directed towards Europe.
“So Xi Jinping simply doesn’t have the ability to integrate the Eurasian continent, the autocratic axis, to compete with Europe and the United States. He can’t do it. Moreover, the CCP is in a state of precariousness, and the regime is very unstable. He collapsed. That is to say, his ability is quite limited, he is weak in the power balance, but his ambitions are very large.”
The CCP still has scruples about Russia’s remarks
Xinhua News Agency, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China, reported that Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the NPC, visited Russia from the 7th to the 10th, met with President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok (Vladivostok), and met with State Duma Chairman Volodin and the Chairman of the Federation Council in Moscow. Matviyenko held talks respectively and met with the heads of the five major parties of the State Duma.
According to a statement from the Russian State Duma, Li Zhanshu assured during the meeting that “China understands and supports Russia on issues concerning Russia’s vital interests, especially the situation in Ukraine.”
However, in the press release issued by the CCP’s Xinhua News Agency, Li Zhanshu only stated in general terms that China and Russia are willing to “firmly support each other on issues concerning each other’s core interests and major concerns”, and did not mention Ukraine at all.
On September 7, Li Zhanshu announced at a forum in Vladivostok that he would launch “all-round cooperation” with Russia. Putin said that Gazprom and China have decided to settle gas costs in rubles and yuan at a ratio of 50:50.
Hu Ping, a scholar based in the United States, told The Epoch Times that the CCP itself still has scruples about Russia’s official public statements. “First, he did not dare to support Russia in terms of military supplies. In addition, he could not clearly affirm Russia’s aggression. He had to put it another way, and at the same time, he had to sing high-profile respect for national sovereignty. Of course, he and Russia’s own position. It will be different. But everyone knows that China is actually the main driver and supporter of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
He believes that Xi Jinping used this SCO summit to meet Putin because it was more natural, and Xi wanted to express his support for Russia.
Russia-Ukraine war adversely affects Putin and Xi Jinping’s power
In the past week, Ukraine began a major counter-offensive, and the Russian army was driven out of the three major strategic cities in the east of Ukraine. The Komsomolskaya newspaper quoted military analysts as saying: “We obviously underestimated the enemy’s army, (the Russian army) took too long to react, and the collapse finally came…”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on September 12: “From the beginning of September to today, our officers and soldiers have recovered 6,000 square kilometers of territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, and we are advancing further.”
From the map, the northeastern Ukraine occupied by the Russian army has shrunk from a large area to a strip of land along the Russian-Ukrainian border.
Hu Ping, a scholar based in the United States, told The Epoch Times that the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war had a great impact on the CCP. “Now Russia has suffered the biggest setback since the war, and for Ukraine, as long as they can drive the Russians back to before February 24th, before Putin announced the so-called military operation against Ukraine, they will win. , that is, Russia’s defeat. Besides, Ukraine may take back some of the places occupied by the Russians before February 24, and if that happens, Russia will lose very badly.”
He believes that the West sees Ukraine playing so well and is more willing to provide more weapons, and the future evolution of the war may be more unfavorable for Russia. In this way, whether Putin can secure his position in the country is also a big question. Moreover, the CCP authorities, who have always supported Russia, will also be in great difficulty, which will have a considerable impact on Xi Jinping’s status.
CNN quoted a petition published on Twitter on the 12th saying that lawmakers from 18 municipal districts of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Korpino asked Putin to resign.
A group of deputies from the city of Smolninskoye in St. Petersburg sent an official letter to the Duma, the lower house of parliament, calling for the removal of the head of state, the French Broadcasting Corporation reported.
Professor Feng Chongyi of the University of Technology Sydney in Australia told The Epoch Times that if Russia loses the war, not only will Putin have something to do, but Xi Jinping will also be directly affected. Because Xi Jinping firmly advocates alliance with Russia and the United States in the party, and many people in the party believe that they should not be tied to Russia, Xi Jinping made some concessions. If Russia were to lose the war, it would be a major mistake in Xi’s decision-making.
“So (the CCP) no longer said in February that the relationship was not capped, and it did not openly challenge the sanctions imposed by the Western democratic world on Russia, but did it secretly. For example, it did not sell weapons directly, but sold it through other places, and then also No troops were sent in, mainly to support Russia in terms of trade and finance, that’s the situation.”
Regarding Li Zhanshu’s recent visit to Moscow, the Chinese side also stated that Li Zhanshu thanked the Russian side for its firm support to China on the Taiwan issue. But the Russian Duma’s statement only said that Russia condemned the U.S. action against China and did not mention the Taiwan issue.
Feng Chongyi said that the Taiwan Strait issue is still at play due to Xi Jinping’s personal factors, and he wants to make the acquisition of Taiwan the core content of his performance project, but the CCP does not necessarily see it that way.
“One concept that Xi Jinping came up with is that the east rises and the west falls. This is his judgment on the global (situation). But many people in the CCP don’t think China is really capable of challenging the United States and the democratic world now. And their money, Their lovers have all been sent to Europe, the United States, and Australia. If (the CCP) goes to war with the entire democratic world, the wealth they have accumulated will be lost. So they do not advocate a showdown with the United States.”
However, Feng Chongyi said that the various anti-Xi forces in the CCP cannot be brought together to overturn the table and prevent Xi from being re-elected because the anti-Xi factions did not say jumping off the boat and giving up the one-party dictatorship.
“As long as you don’t overthrow the party and don’t change the mechanism of one-party dictatorship, then the party leader has the power to control the entire situation, to control the military, the police, and the secret services. As long as this mechanism exists, he will be relatively Safe.” Feng Chongyi said.
Responsible editor: Li Muen#