Taiwan general election: High-level KMT and CCP meeting throws up political and economic benefits on both sides of the strait and whether the two sides can work together to “delist” the DPP- BBC News 中文

As for the news that Wang Huning will restructure its Taiwan strategy, according to Song Wendi’s observation, the CCP’s Taiwan policy has been continuously updated, so the so-called rumor that the CCP intends to “seek new thinking” on its Taiwan policy is not entirely groundless.

Song Wendi told BBC Chinese that in the era when Wang Huning was in charge of Taiwan policy, in the future when the CCP’s “soft and hard” strategy against Taiwan, the direction and proportion of the “soft hand” will be more precise. He said: “Wang Huning’s academic background and origin in Shanghai should allow him to have more opportunities for direct and indirect second-track exchanges with Taiwan’s industry, government and academia. Wang’s grasp of Taiwan’s people’s sentiments has reason to compare with the former CPPCC National Committee of pure official background. The chairman is more comprehensive.”

Yaban Akio, a senior Japanese commentator based in Taipei, analyzed on Facebook that Xia Liyan had been emphasizing to Wang Huning that he “wanted to talk about economic and trade issues” at the meeting, but Wang Huning has been in charge of ideology since the first day of politics, and has never I have encountered economic and trade issues, and my current work has nothing to do with economics and trade. “Xia Liyan asked him to talk about economics and trade, just like ‘going to a fruit shop to buy fish’, Wang Huning might be a little at a loss, right?” he said.

However, Zhang Junhao, a professor of political science at Tunghai University in Taiwan, told BBC Chinese that Xia Liyan’s trip to the mainland actually mainly reflects the political struggle within the KMT, which is related to the competition for the nomination for next year’s presidential election.

Zhang Junhao, who has long studied the KMT’s political wrangling, said that in August last year, the former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Pelosi visited Taiwan, and the CCP launched a large-scale “island closure” exercise. Both represent the display of the power of the Kuomintang chairman Zhu Lilun. In other words, Zhu Lilun wants to tell opponents in the party and voters that he has better control over and handling of cross-strait relations, “especially since he has plans to visit the United States and Japan,” Zhang Junhao told reporters.

During Xia Liyan’s visit to China this time, he was received by the top officials of the CCP. After arriving in Beijing on February 10, he met with Wang Huning, Song Tao, Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary Chen Jining and Beijing Municipal Party Secretary Yin Li, and arrived in Hubei on Tuesday (14th). During his itinerary, he repeatedly emphasized that the three goals of his visit to the mainland have been achieved, including “caring for Taiwanese businessmen and students”, reflecting the aspirations of Taiwanese farmers and fishermen, and communicating with new Taiwan-related officials.

However, the most eye-catching thing about this visit is how Beijing uses the KMT-CCP ​​meeting to face the messages released by Taiwan—will these messages affect next year’s presidential election? Will it assist the Kuomintang to “take off the shelves” of the DPP that has been in power for eight years?

During Xia Liyan’s visit to mainland China this time, he first met with Song Tao, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, for dinner. After the meeting, Xia Liyan said that Song Tao said that as long as he accepts the “1992 Consensus”, members of the DPP are welcome to visit the mainland. On February 10, Xia Liyan met Wang Huning, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, in the Great Hall of the People.

In Wang Huning’s talk, he stated that he would “solve the Taiwan issue” and adhere to the “1992 Consensus.” According to Xinhua News Agency, Wang Huning said that “Taiwan independence” is incompatible with peace and runs counter to the well-being of Taiwan compatriots. “No one values ​​Taiwan compatriots’ wishes for peace, tranquility, and a better life more than we do.”

Xia Liyan only expressed his expectations for cross-strait economic and trade issues and strengthening exchanges and cooperation, but did not express much about the Taiwan Strait issue. Therefore, some analysts said that the meeting between the KMT and the Communist Party gave high-level treatment to the KMT’s high-level officials. The cross-strait economic and trade issues mentioned by the KMT did not need to expend energy to discuss in Beijing. information”.

Song Wendi told BBC Chinese that Beijing has chosen a precise moment to extend an olive branch to Taiwan.

He believes that before and after the KMT’s high-level visit, Beijing made high-profile and public announcements on many cross-strait issues, such as the partial lifting of some economic sanctions against Taiwan, in an attempt to allow the KMT to take credit for the “thaw” on both sides of the strait. Beijing even announced its willingness to freeze direct cross-strait flights for three years because of the epidemic.

According to Song Wendi’s analysis, this situation may pose a dilemma for the DPP: if the DPP agrees to resume direct flights, Taiwanese society can easily attribute the successful negotiation between the KMT and Beijing; but the DPP is also unwilling to “categorically reject” Beijing’s proposal , so as not to be labeled as an “anti-business party”.

Professor Zhao Chunshan, a senior adviser to the KMT think tank “National Affairs Foundation”, commented to Taiwan’s official media, Central News Agency, that what Song Tao said to Xia Liyan represented that mainland China hoped to convey the improvement of relations through the KMT. “Because there is no mutual trust between the People’s Republic of China and the Communist Party, the other party (Beijing) is still willing to do a good job in dealing with the Taiwanese, which means that it does not want cross-strait relations to be damaged.”

However, Akio Yata, who grew up in mainland China, commented that the meeting between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party was a meeting where “each said his own thing”. For the Xi regime, which is eager to make a breakthrough on the Taiwan issue, the talks have little positive significance.

He told Taiwan media that the CCP originally wanted to use the KMT-CCP ​​meeting to launch a fierce “united front offensive” against Taiwan, but the accidental Chinese balloon incident disrupted the layout: “Because there is a problem with this balloon, it is tantamount to saying that it has completely failed. So if Xia Liyan goes to (Beijing) now, the two sides are talking about each other, and basically no good results have been achieved, so I think that if he goes to China, not only does it not add points to the KMT, but it seems that China and the United States are due to the balloon problem. , Under the situation of very sharp confrontation, the Kuomintang seems to be on the side of China.” He believes that this will allow the middle voters to deduct points from the Kuomintang.

According to the telephone poll conducted by Taiwanese consulting company Shanshui Poll from February 9 to 11, 2023, entrusted by the Taiwanese media “Fangyan News Network”, Ke Wenzhe of the People’s Party is running for president, and Lai Qingde is running for the Democratic Progressive Party. Under the premise of the Kuomintang, if the KMT is represented by the “red-top businessman” Gou Taiming, who has no party affiliation on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and the current New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi, they will defeat the current Vice President Lai Qingde, who is a member of the DPP, by 32% to 34%. The lead is only 3 to 4%.

When talking about his observations of Taiwanese society, Zhou Baosong, a political scientist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who was visiting Taipei, said that Taiwan is very lively and free, but it faces many problems. According to reports, Zhou Baosong, who recently attended a symposium at the Taipei International Book Fair, said: “I have been in Taipei for half a year. When I was in a taxi, I heard many drivers say that reunification with China is not bad, and Taiwan’s democracy is not so good.”

Zhou Baosong emphasized that Beijing has been claiming for many years that its political system is superior to the West, so there are so-called “Chinese models” and “socialism with Chinese characteristics”. In the face of Beijing’s offensive, as far as Taiwan is concerned, he believes that there may be a need for a “Taiwan model” to make Taiwanese seriously think about why Taiwan’s system can achieve fairness and justice, or it can bring better and more democracy than Beijing’s current system life. Zhou Baosong said that if the discussion about the “Taiwan model” cannot be established, some Taiwanese may lose confidence in their way of life in the face of more severe challenges from Beijing.

For example, some analysts said that the DPP’s big defeat in local elections at the end of last year, especially in the north, was because many Taiwanese were still doing business in the mainland, or had even settled in the mainland for a long time. They hoped that cross-strait exchanges would continue to deepen. After Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the war anxiety caused by the mainland’s island closure exercise made Taiwanese voters more active in upholding the attitude of “politics belongs to politics, and economy belongs to economy”. The same is true for young people who need to go to the battlefield during wartime. For example, Xu Guanghan, a young Taiwanese star who is a high-profile supporter of Xinjiang cotton, sold two consecutive films in Taiwan that sold hundreds of millions of NT dollars at the box office, becoming a box office guarantee for the new generation. Taiwanese people don’t care about his political stance.

Facing the challenge from the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, current Vice President Lai Ching-teh, who is believed to represent the Democratic Progressive Party for the presidency next year, responded that he wanted to remind the Kuomintang that any cross-strait dialogue should be cautious and “avoid sending out wrong messages.” He emphasized that the people of Taiwan are very clear that in the “1992 Consensus” defined by the Beijing authorities, there is no living space for the “Republic of China” and no sovereignty over the 23 million Taiwanese.