[New Tang Dynasty Beijing time August 11, 2021]The Chinese Communist Party virus (Covid-19) epidemic continues to spread, and many countries have begun to switch their epidemic prevention strategies and resume international exchanges one after another. The CCP still adheres to the policy of blocking borders and compulsory “zeroing”. Japan’s Nomura Securities therefore sharply lowered its expectations for China’s economic growth in the second half of the year. The chairman of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China warned that China may become an international island.
The Delta variant epidemic recently broke out in China. Some scholars suggested adopting a loose policy of “coexisting with the virus”, but it was criticized by the official media.
Bloomberg reported a few days ago that when many countries began to switch epidemic prevention strategies, the CCP is still focusing on how to continue to “clear” and adopt strict border control measures. However, this did not prevent the Delta variant from spreading in China, and the authorities continued to resort to local blockades, travel restrictions, and large-scale testing.
The report pointed out that such measures by the Chinese Communist Party are expected to continue until next year, because Beijing definitely does not want the Winter Olympics and the National Party Congress of the Communist Party of China to be affected by the epidemic next year. However, in response to the CCP’s mandatory “zero-clearing” method, the outside world believes that such a strategy will continue to increase economically and politically.
Chen Zhengming, a professor of epidemiology at Oxford University, pointed out that Beijing’s approach can achieve “zero infection” within a period of time, but sooner or later the virus will take advantage of it, and sooner or later the authorities will have to make changes. He also said that if “clearing” has become a fixed mindset, the Chinese Communist Party will not actively adjust its strategy, and even discussing changes in practice will be forbidden.
Joerg Wuttke, chairman of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, pointed out that as other countries gradually open their doors and resume international exchanges, if the CCP continues to block the border and has “zero tolerance” for the epidemic, it may make China an isolated “island”. .
In addition, Japan’s Nomura Securities last week reduced China’s GDP growth rate in the third quarter from 6.4% to 5.1%, and the fourth quarter’s growth rate from 5.3% to 4.4%. The annual economic growth rate was lowered from the previous 8.9%. To 8.2%. Nomura Securities pointed out that the reason for lowering China’s economic growth rate was Beijing’s severe measures to deal with the spread of the Delta strain.
Reuters quoted the analysis of Nomura Securities’ chief Chinese economic analyst Lu Ting as saying that the cost of the CCP’s “zero tolerance” in fighting the epidemic is getting higher and higher. Lu Ting predicted that in order to cope with the economic downturn, the Chinese Communist Party will alternately use the strategies of “directed tightening” and “general easing” this year, but these policy measures may not be enough to reverse the downward trend in economic growth.
Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley also lowered their expectations for China’s economic growth this week. Morgan Stanley lowered the quarterly growth of China’s economic growth to 1.6%; Goldman Sachs lowered its quarterly forecast from 5.8% to 2.3%, and its full-year forecast from 8.6% to 8.3%; and JPMorgan Chase reduced its quarterly growth from 4.3% to 2.3%. 2.0%, the full year is expected to decrease from 9.1% to 8.9%.
The forecasts of the Chinese economy by international agencies are mostly based on the official statistics of the Chinese Communist Party. But in fact, the CCP data is suspected of being extremely watery.
According to an online survey conducted by Peking University at the end of June 2020, the unemployment rate in China is about 20%, far exceeding the officially announced 5%.
After suffering the double blow of the US-China trade war and the epidemic, China’s current economic situation may be worse than in 2018. Xiang Songzuo, a professor at Renmin University of China and director and deputy director of the Institute of International Monetary Studies, previously revealed that an “important institution” within the Communist Party of China concluded that the actual growth rate of China’s economy in 2018 was 1.67%, and another calculation Is a negative value.
(Reporter Jing Zhongming Comprehensive Report / Chief Editor: Lansing)
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