The value of the dollar in Colombia remains far from $5,000, according to the recent survey of projections by Banco de la República, which indicates that in the next 12 months the currency will not exceed $4,700. Despite the fact that in November of the previous year the US currency reached $5,061, this week it started at $4,425, a retracement of $636.
However, yesterday at the negotiation round of the Colombian Stock Exchange, the US currency closed with a slight rise awaiting a reduction in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve (FED), whose next monetary policy meeting It will be on May 2 and 3. Although it was below the estimates of analysts, who expect the TRM to end this month at $4,517, and by the end of the year it is indicated that it would close at $4,629.
Economic analysts suggest that in April 2024 the price will be around $4,534 and by the end of 2024 at $4,550, which means that it is not expected to exceed the $4,700 barrier. Likewise, the dollar is expected to trade between $4,370 and $4,600 pesos during this week.
Researchers from Davivienda Corredores explained that the lower expectations regarding the next interest rate increases by the FED lead the dollar globally to take a more downward trend.
“The fall of the dollar at the local level allows having a coverage space for some sectors, especially for importers who are the ones who benefit the most from the drop in the dollar exchange rate,” pointed out a stockbroker.
On the other hand, the Issuer’s monthly analyst survey, released this weekend, revealed that inflation in April will have a variation of 0.87%. This would bring the indicator for the last twelve months to 12.92%, that is, the peak of inflation was reached in March with 13.34%.
Also, the meeting of the board of directors of the Bank of the Republic, scheduled for April 28, has analysts in disagreement about the interest rate to be set. The average of those surveyed estimates a rate between 13.0% and 13.50%, which indicates that there is no consensus on the Issuer’s next move.
Regarding the growth of the Colombian economy for this year, the average estimate of analysts was 1.25%. For the first quarter of 2023, the figure would be 2.5%.
The Dane will publish this Tuesday (April 18) the level of economic activity for February. Bancolombia’s most recent update indicates that the annual expansion would be 3.3%. However, in the series adjusted for seasonal effects, the evolution would have fallen by 2 percentage points compared to January 2023.
This dynamic could be consistent with the slowdown trend in productive activity due to the slowdown in consumption, persistent inflation, and contractionary monetary policy. Fenalco, for example, revealed that the performance of trade in March was poor.