22 August 2022 10:05
The coming months will be particularly insidious: the Ukrainian conflict will in fact enter a critical period, six months after the start of the Russian invasion and at a time when no end of the fighting is in sight. The last six months have not allowed Vladimir Putin’s army to achieve the desired victory or the Ukrainian people to push the invader across the borders, despite exceptional mobilization and the delivery of increasingly sophisticated weapons.
The new phase of the conflict will take place on three distinct but obviously linked levels: the military, the diplomatic and the political. War, as we know, is never an exclusively military question. The conflict also concerns us who live on the other side of Europe, also because the shock wave is planetary.
On the ground, after initial failures in the Kiev region – relying on a series of wiretaps, the Washington Post revealed that Moscow planned to take over the capital and install a puppet government there within days – the Russian military has achieved several successes. in Mariupol, on the Azov Sea, and in a part of the Donbass. Today the Russians can count on an artillery power far superior to that of the Ukrainians, but in this late summer period they are slowing down their advance. The Ukrainian army, for its part, multiplies the “sabotage” operations of the Russian apparatus, with targeted attacks against weapons depots and logistically crucial points, even in Crimea (and this is a novelty), a territory occupied since 2014 by Russia which hosts the fleet on the Black Sea.
Distant negotiations
There are still a few weeks left before the return of winter, a period of time in which the two armies will try to take advantage. The Ukrainian army, in particular, is preparing a counter-offensive to try to recapture Cherson in the south. For Russia it would be a very hard blow.
The military situation shows that the moment of negotiations has not yet arrived: neither for Putin, who despite the advance of his army has not achieved the decisive success that would allow him to negotiate in a position of strength; nor for the Ukrainians, who today would be forced to make territorial concessions that the population is not ready to accept after all the sacrifices made. Each of the two sides is convinced that time is on their side: Ukraine because it receives new weapons every month (mainly from the United States) which it believes can make a difference on the field, and Russia because it can count on numerical superiority and because Putin is not in a position to take a step back.
In view of the G20 in November, the two global “fronts” will multiply their efforts to obtain the support of emerging countries
But these are not the only parameters of the conflict. War is also played out on the diplomatic level. In this sense, a decisive appointment will be the G20 summit scheduled for mid-November in Bali, Indonesia. The leaders of Russia and China, Putin and Xi Jinping, have announced that they will participate in the event. If the commitment is confirmed and if Westerners – Americans, Europeans, Japanese, Australians – are also present, it will be the first face to face after the start of the war in Ukraine. In Bali there will also be large emerging countries such as India, South Africa, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, whose position is fundamental for the balance of the world today.
In view of November, the two global “fronts” – that of the West, reconstituted under the leadership of the United States, and that of the contestants of the international order, embodied by Russia and China – will multiply their efforts to obtain the support of emerging countries . Paradoxically, Westerners start out at a disadvantage, because they believe they represent international legality in the context of the war in Ukraine, while abroad they are accused of using two weights and two measures: mobilized in support of Ukraine after having remained largely immobile when the States United invaded Iraq in 2003, Westerners close their eyes to the plight of the Palestinians and human rights violations in Saudi Arabia and other allied countries. This difference in perception is particularly strong in Africa, where former colonial powers like France are mocked by young people whenever they wave the flag of democracy and law against Russia. The information war raging in Africa, especially in the French-speaking countries, is one of the facets of this planetary clash.
The Italian test
Finally, the war in Ukraine takes place at the level of public opinion, in Russia as well as within the European Union. With a fundamental question: who will sell first? Will it be Russia, subjected to unprecedented sanctions but which proved to be more resistant than expected and capable of controlling information and therefore the perception of war by its population? Or will it be the Europeans, largely spontaneously in solidarity with Ukraine but whose support will be severely tested by the energy crisis that threatens to arrive in winter? The recent statement by French President Emmanuel Macron, who urged the French to agree to “pay the price of freedom”, makes us understand how deep are the concerns of the West in view of the winter, with an energy expenditure that could prove to be mammoth.
Russia is betting on weariness if not even on the revolt of a part of Western public opinion. Former Russian President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who became Putin’s “sniper” on social networks, explicitly invited Europeans to “punish” their leaders, ironically saying that “winter will be warmer in the company of Russia than in the solitude of an off radiator “. The first test of this tug-of-war will be in Italy, where the early legislative elections scheduled for 25 September risk rewarding some right-wing and far-right parties close to Putin. Any success of political forces that in the past did not hide their appreciation for the head of the Kremlin would inevitably be interpreted as a success for Putin, even if Russia is not the only criterion of choice for Italian voters.
What awaits us in autumn and winter, therefore, will be a war on various fronts: the military one, that of diplomatic influence and that of public opinion. It will be a treacherous period, as evidenced by the tensions with China over Taiwan and the critical situation around the Zaporižžja nuclear power plant, but also a period in which each of the actors of this crisis will find out if they will be able to achieve their goals and in which moment will be forced to make compromises. For the moment, however, the escalation continues.
(Translation by Andrea Sparacino)