[Epoch Times, March 4, 2022]The most evil forces within the CCP have been clamoring for force to attack Taiwan. Not long ago, overseas media with Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong backgrounds published an article “Jiang Zemin: The Taiwan issue is my biggest concern.” The article specifically quoted Jiang as saying: “If we want to take military action (against Taiwan), it should be sooner rather than later.”
The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and the reaction of the international community seem to have taught Xi and the top Chinese Communist Party a lesson in advance: Do not act rashly on the Taiwan issue, otherwise, the consequences will be disastrous.
First, the CCP is still the number one adversary of the United States.
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, U.S. President Joe Biden made it clear that the U.S. would not send troops to Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg also made it clear that NATO will not send troops to Ukraine.
There are various interpretations of the attitude of the United States and NATO. The author believes that from the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war in 2018, to 2019, the CCP continued to escalate its violent suppression of the anti-extradition movement in Hong Kong. By 2020, the CCP allowed the “CCP virus” to spread from Wuhan to the world. China, Canada, Australia, Japan, India, Lithuania and many other countries have engaged in “wolf warrior diplomacy” and put “maximum pressure” on Taiwan, which has made the United States realize that the CCP is the number one threat in the world today.
During the Trump presidency, the United States has regarded the CCP as the number one adversary of the United States in its foreign strategy. After Biden took office as President of the United States, although the formulation was not as direct as the Trump administration, he still regarded the CCP as the number one “competitor”.
The United States is the eldest among the 30 NATO countries. The decision of the United States not to send troops to Ukraine directly affects NATO’s attitude towards whether to send troops to Ukraine. If the United States does not send troops and NATO does not send troops, the Russian-Ukrainian war will be confined to the two countries, and it will not turn into a war between the United States and Russia, a war between the United States, Russia and Europe, and it will not turn into a world war.
In the past few decades, the United States has been involved in wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and many other places successively, allowing the CCP, which should be the focus of the world, to escape crisis time and time again, and even profit from it.
This time, the U.S. can concentrate its forces against the U.S.’s number one adversary, the CCP, without entrenching itself on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Second, the CCP will face isolation from the world.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, international public opinion overwhelmingly supported Ukraine and condemned Russia.
One of the highlights was the emergency special session convened by the United Nations on March 2. Participants included the 193 member states of the United Nations. The meeting passed a resolution on the situation in Ukraine jointly submitted by more than 90 countries including Ukraine. The votes were: 141 in favour, 5 against and 35 abstentions.
The resolution “condemns Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in the strongest terms” and calls for an immediate cessation of the use of force by Moscow and the “immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of all Russian troops from within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine”. The resolution also called on Russia to reverse its decision to recognize two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine as “independent areas.”
In recent years, the CCP has always made the development of a “strategic partnership” with Russia a top priority of its diplomacy, and has always meant “joining Russia and opposing the United States“. The CCP even claimed that “China and Russia are better than allies than allies”. However, in the election of the United Nations emergency special session, the CCP did not dare to stand on the side of Russia, but chose to abstain from voting.
Since the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war, the CCP has become increasingly isolated internationally.
In 2021, the CCP will “grandly” hold a centenary commemoration event in Beijing, without any foreign heads of state and government prime ministers attending. The 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics were met with diplomatic boycotts by many countries led by the United States. The CCP spent 500 billion yuan to invite Russian President Vladimir Putin, the leader of the only major country; promised to provide 500 million US dollars in free assistance to the five Central Asian countries in the next three years, and invited the heads of the five Central Asian countries; to pledge to raise 23 billion yuan The price of dollars, please come to the President of Argentina. If the CCP does not spend a lot of money, there may be very few heads of state or prime ministers who support the CCP.
If the CCP attacks Taiwan by force, its international isolation may be more serious than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Third, the CCP will face the most severe sanctions.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War, many countries in the free world led by the United States imposed round after round of severe sanctions on Russia. The most important of these are financial sanctions.
Many countries such as the United States and Europe have kicked Russia’s most important banks out of the “Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication Payment Service System” (SWIFT). This is equivalent to cutting off the connection between Russia’s most important banks and the global banking system. These Russian banks will not be able to conduct cross-border receipts and payments, thereby affecting Russia’s international trade settlement.
The United States and the European Union froze the foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Central Bank. The frozen funds are equivalent to about 460 billion to 630 billion US dollars (about 2.90 trillion to 3.97 trillion yuan). This caused Russia’s currency, the ruble, to depreciate by more than 30% overnight, and it is estimated that it will continue to depreciate.
On March 2, the share price of Russia’s largest bank, the Federal Sberbank, plunged 95% in London. Almost overnight, this stock of about $15 per share plummeted to $0.011 per share, a drop of more than 99.9%. Shares in Russia’s Lukoil, known as the world‘s largest vertically integrated oil and gas company, fell 99.7 percent. Shares in Novatek, Russia’s largest independent natural gas producer, plunged 99.6 percent.
The sanctions against Russia by Switzerland, a “permanently neutral country”, are particularly striking.
On February 28, Switzerland decided to adopt all EU sanctions against Russia. Switzerland will freeze the assets of 363 individuals and 4 companies, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mishustin, and Foreign Minister Lavrov.
This is a rare all-round sanctions against Russia by the free world led by the United States. Russia will thus be isolated from the global financial, trading system and cutting-edge technological cooperation.
Russia’s economy has been sluggish, and it is mainly maintained by selling oil, natural gas and arms. Russia’s GDP is only equivalent to China’s Guangdong Province. Sanctions by the United States and other countries, if continued for a long time, may lead to the collapse of the Russian economy.
If the CCP launches a military offensive against Taiwan, the international sanctions it will receive will definitely be more severe than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Fourth, the United States is likely to help defend Taiwan.
One big difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is that it has a natural barrier, the Taiwan Strait, which is 200 kilometers wide in the north, 400 kilometers in the south, 180 kilometers wide on average, and 126 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. At that time, Hitler’s army swept across the European continent. However, facing the narrowest part of the English Channel, which was only 34 kilometers away, they tried every means, but in the end they failed to break through and land on the British mainland. The “natural danger” of the Taiwan Strait is a huge obstacle for the CCP to attack Taiwan.
Taiwan is located in a key position in the first island chain of the free world led by the United States to guard against the threat of the CCP, and it is also in a key position in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. The security of Taiwan is directly related to the security of Japan, the security of South Korea, the security of Australia, the security of the Philippines and other claimants of the South China Sea Islands, and the security of the United States.
If Taiwan falls, there will be a series of chain reactions that will directly endanger the United States. The CCP’s warships can drive straight from Taiwan into the Pacific Ocean; the CCP’s ICBMs can hit the U.S. mainland directly from Taiwan. For the sake of its own security, it is impossible for the United States to abandon Taiwan and ignore it when the CCP attacks Taiwan by force.
Taiwan is called by the United States a model of democracy, a reliable partner, and a force for good in the world. In recent years, under the all-round pressure of the CCP, Taiwan has created a miracle of democracy, an economic miracle, and a miracle of epidemic prevention, showing vigor and vitality.
Taiwan’s strategic pillar industry, TSMC, is the world‘s largest chip manufacturer, and the US has a large demand for mobile phones, computers, automobiles, aircraft, aircraft carriers, nuclear power plants, and cutting-edge weapons.
The self-help spirit of independence, self-reliance and self-improvement exhibited by Taiwan has become an important condition for Taiwan to win the help of others and God.
On October 21 last year, U.S. President Biden participated in CNN’s public meeting in Baltimore and was asked if the United States would defend Taiwan if Taiwan was attacked by the CCP, Biden made it clear: “Yes, we have this. promise.”
Just as Russia invaded Ukraine, on March 1, U.S. President Joe Biden sent former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Murren to lead a senior cross-party delegation to visit Taiwan. On February 26, the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer of the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet crossed the Taiwan Strait. This also shows that the current US government attaches great importance to Taiwan’s security.
The most important U.S. military base in the Western Pacific is Guam, where an aircraft carrier strike group, the most advanced supersonic aircraft, etc. are deployed. The United States also has military bases in Gyeonggi-do, South Korea, Okinawa, Japan, and Subic Bay, Philippines.
If the CCP invades Taiwan by force, the United States may send troops to help from bases such as Guam and Okinawa.
Epilogue
The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war was beyond the expectations of many people. It’s both a bad thing and a good thing. For the Ukrainian people, this is undoubtedly a huge disaster. However, its performance, said to Xi Jinping and the top CCP leaders, also foreshadowed the consequences of launching a war against Taiwan.
The Russian-Ukrainian war has exposed Putin’s serious problems in strategy, tactics, military mobilization, weapons and equipment, logistical supplies, and people’s reassurance. If the war continues and international sanctions continue, Putin’s life will be very difficult.
Can the CCP authorities learn from the past lessons? It can only be answered by itself.
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Responsible editor: Gao Yi#