THE NEW CENTURY He spoke with two of the main political analysts in the country, regarding what could be the margin of action of President Gustavo Petro and what he should do to recover governability.
They were also asked about the possibility of concerting the reforms, how far the opposition is advancing and if the country is more to the right or left. Yann Basset, a professor of political science at the Universidad del Rosario, and Eduardo Pizarro Leongómez, a political analyst, sociologist and researcher of the armed conflict, responded.
What can or should the Government do to try to rebuild a coalition that will allow it to carry out its reforms in Congress? What do you see closer: that the government rebuild its parliamentary coalition or that independents and the opposition create a block to stop the reforms that they consider are not convenient for the country? Do you see the willingness of the Casa de Nariño to make its theses more flexible and advance in a true agreement with the parties for these ongoing projects and others announced for the second semester? Four months before the regional and local elections, which sector starts the final stretch of the campaign in the best position: petrism or anti-petrism? One year after the election of Petro and, with this, already adding eleven months of mandate, is the country today more to the right or to the left than in June of last year?
Complicated for the Government to rebuild its coalition if it lacks will: Basset
Mainly trade them. It is quite clear that the Government does not have a majority to pass the reforms as it wants. The alternative is to negotiate and try to reach a consensus on the texts, modifying their projects a bit, otherwise they simply won’t happen.
It is more difficult, obviously, if these consensuses take place in a political scenario like the current one where the government broke its coalition and was left at a disadvantage, since it has let a lot of time pass. He turned his back on his early allies a bit, but I think it’s always possible. Obviously, the traditional parties are always very eager to participate in governments, since it is somewhat their vocation. They do not have great ideological stakes, but rather represent regional, sectoral interests, etc.
The longer they let time pass, the more complicated things get. It is also a bit complex for local elections, since a struggle is already taking place within those traditional parties, between supporters of the Government and opponents. By all accounts, the supporters of the government have everything to lose, in fact.
I think neither one nor the other. I believe that the opposition and the traditional parties can unite to sink some important government reforms, particularly the strongest ones such as labor and health. But I also don’t see it as easy for there to be a majority opposition coalition in Congress that will be maintained systematically until the end of Petro’s government, since there are different interests in these parties.
Nor do I see it possible to unite an anti-government coalition in Congress, I also see it as difficult for the Government to rebuild this coalition, especially if it does not have the will to do so, as seems to be the case, at least up to now.
If the Executive does not reach agreements with the opposition, it simply could not approve its reforms and would have to govern with the existing legal framework, which means cutting many of its ambitions.
Certainly, this also means that he is going to have a political discourse in which he blames the opposition for having scuttled the reforms and for not wanting to change the country. But the government will simply not be able to realize many of its ambitions. You will simply have to try to change things in practice, but without being able to change this legislative framework.
At the moment the signal sent by the Government is not clear. What the Minister of the Interior, Luis Fernando Velasco, has said is that they are going to try to convince the congressmen one by one, but it is something very difficult, especially if there are deep reforms that are intended to be carried out.
In addition, it would be exhausting for the Government, since these practices are always likely to be seen as clientelistic by public opinion. It is complicated and, for the moment, I do not see the will on the part of the Government. But suddenly, seeing the government that runs into a wall, it can change its attitude.
Concerning clientelist practices and the delivery of ‘jams’ that have been questioned for many years, this is what the Government wants to do, but it seems to me very difficult for it to achieve it if it does not really negotiate with the political parties. They are practices that have not worked to really sustain a government program in the past.
For example, President Iván Duque, at the beginning of his term, had tried to negotiate politician by politician, without going through the parties, making a kind of short circuit to the organizations and he did not succeed. And that he did not have great proposals that would generate opposition in Congress. So what experience shows is that you don’t get very far with these types of methods.
I think it is very difficult to read local elections in these terms. Local elections are local by definition. Perhaps the only scenario in large cities where a little is played in these terms is in Medellín, but apart from this, I believe that the dynamics are very specific to each city. What the polls indicate is that more to the right, it is logical, since there is wear and tear in the exercise of the Government. Identification with the left had risen in the polls, but the latest polls show that the right is rebounding.
However, it must also be said that always, both a year ago and now, the opposition with which the majority of Colombians identify is that of the center. And it must be said, because there is the idea that this country is very polarized. The truth is that the polls do not show that this is the case.
I think Gustavo Petro got off to a good start last second semester. Actually, the President’s popularity curve has started to reverse in February-March.
I also believe that it began with the rupture within the government with the dismissal of the ministers. After that, the President locked himself in a very belligerent speech towards opponents and the press. In addition, few results at the program level because the Government does not have the majority in the Government to pass its projects.
The time has come when the President must change the form of government: Pizarro
I believe that President Gustavo Petro should change his confrontational discourse for a discourse that seeks to build agreements with the political opposition, with enormous realism. He does not have majorities in Congress and in order to push forward his reformist agenda he needs to make agreements with the political parties that are in the majority today and that are forming a majority opposition coalition.
In other words, it must build bridges and move from a discourse with claims of very radical changes to an agenda of important reformist changes that allow the country to improve on a social level, but that, at the same time, allows it to build on what has been built.
It is important not to wipe out everything the country has advanced in this area; that is, to go from being a president with radical positions to a president with reformist positions and with the capacity to reach consensus.
I believe that the opposition should also have an attitude of openness, since the most important thing in a democracy is not an obstructionist opposition that seeks to block the government’s agenda, but a constructive opposition that rejects what it considers to be negative for the country; but, at the same time, applaud and support what you consider to be positive.
If we call on the Petro government to assume a broader position, we must also call on the opposition to take a much more constructive position.
It is that a failure of the Government does not suit the country. What is convenient for the country is to move forward and we need maturity from both the government and the opposition.
I see that President Gustavo Petro is making a serious mistake using Twitter as a means of communication. Twitter is used with a hot head and the President should consult more with his government team and make fewer pronouncements, but more reflective. If this is not the case, the President is going to run headlong into the wall of the political opposition in Congress and his government could go towards failure.
I think the time has come for President Petro to change his form of government and, at the same time, call on moderate sectors of the center, center-left, center-right and other sectors to build fundamental agreements as Álvaro Gómez Hurtado called it. I believe that Colombia requires, at this time of enormous difficulties, that there be basic agreements that allow us to overcome the public order and social crisis in the country.
I believe that these elections will be a plebiscite for or against the government, or for or against the opposition. That’s how they understand it. I believe that this plebiscite can be favorable to the Government and come out stronger, or favorable to the opposition and be strengthened.
But, in any case, it seems to me that once the October elections are over, whoever wins (government or opposition), the time has come to think fundamentally about the need for stability and governability in Colombia. Both must be responsible to avoid a worsening of public order and a failure of State policies.
I would call on Gustavo Petro and the opposition to sign substantial agreements that allow Colombia to move forward. In other words, it is possible that if the opposition wins, they think that the failure of the Petro administration will allow them to return to power in 2026, and that this will lead to an obstructionist opposition.
It seems to me that it would not be responsible to the country. It seems to me that they should build their future by showing that they are capable of making a constructive opposition.
At the same time, if the Petro government is defeated, it cannot move governance to the balcony and with social mobilizations because it would aggravate the confrontation and national polarization. President Petro must also have a constructive attitude to negotiate reforms with the opposition, not as radical as he would like, but those that the country requires and that are possible in agreements under the correlation of forces resulting from the month of October. It is time to think about Colombia.
There is no doubt that the positive image of President Gustavo Petro has fallen dramatically in the polls, but that does not mean that the country has ‘went to the right’. What it does show is that the government has been losing strength and credibility. In this context, it is possible that this will be reflected in the polls in October.
What is unquestionable is that if President Gustavo Petro does not react, his image could deteriorate in the coming months, and his ability to exercise political power could be greatly limited.
That is why you must read the polls, read the street demonstrations that oppose your government, read public opinion and react constructively to this deterioration of your image.