Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The NFL dominates America’s sports betting landscape. No other league comes close to drawing the year-round action wagered on the NFL.
Even in April. Thanks to NFL Draft odds, bettors can fire on who goes where and much more in the event, being held in Kansas City, Missouri, from Thursday through Saturday.
But draft betting is a very different beast. Joey Feazel, lead college football trader for Caesars Sports, and Matt Griffe, sports trader for FOX Betprovide the lowdown on the oddsmaking process and where the action is on 2023 NFL Draft odds. There is also a new, surprising favorite to be the No. 2 pick taken.
Let’s dive into what has now become one of the most bet days in the industry.
Information Age
Unlike NFL games, in which the betting result is determined on the field of play, NFL Draft oddsmaking and betting is all about the information. That creates a challenge for bookmakers.
“Any sort of information market is our least favorite. It’s something you can’t handicap. It takes out variables that would happen on a football field,” Feazel said. “We’re trying to get information before the bettors do, which isn’t always possible. It’s something we’re getting better at each year. But the NFL Draft is not something anyone in the industry looks forward to, especially on the trading side.”
Indeed. Generally speaking, NFL Draft betting is a haven for sharp players. And there’s no shortage of oddsmakers who, over the past few years, have noted sportsbooks always lose on the NFL Draft. It’s not a matter of if the book loses, but a matter of how much.
“It’s fairly established how fragile NFL Draft markets can be, and the random information that can cause actionable moves,” Griffe said. “It’s also a rare opportunity for bettors to take positions on a variety of markets and not feel like they are at a disadvantage. After all, they know as much as we do.”
With that in mind, traders and oddsmakers such as Feazel and Griffe have to be on high alert with any and all NFL Draft prop bets in an effort to mitigate the loss.
“When info drops, you have to react quickly,” Feazel said. “Any bet that comes in on the draft has to be looked at from a sharp perspective. It tends to be almost exclusively a sharp market.
“The sharps flock to the NFL Draft. It tends to be pretty lucrative for them.”
Which quarterback will the Carolina Panthers select?
David Helman and Carmen Vitali discuss why the Panthers will select former Alabama quarterback Bryce Young
Head of the Class
Over the past couple of months, Caesars, FOX Bet and countless other books have taken action on which player will be the No. 1 overall pick. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud were always in the mix, but information pushed others up the odds board a couple of times.
“Early on, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis got a lot of buzz,” Feazel said of the Florida and Kentucky QBs, respectively.
Levis’ surge came in January, as he shortened to the +800-+1000 range, depending on the sportsbook. Previously, Levis could’ve been had at odds of +2000 or more. In late February, Richardson – whose odds were +8000 or greater at one point – got all the way into the +700 range, behind only Young and Stroud.
“Those are probably our worst-case scenarios to go No. 1,” Feazel said of Levis and Richardson, while noting that liability piled up at longer odds. “Young is a little liability for us, but we’d like to see him or C.J. Stroud go No. 1, though it looks like Stroud is dropping.”
In fact, as the draft nears, Young is now a heavy favorite to be taken first overall by the Carolina Panthers. He’s -1600 at Caesars Sports, while Stroud is +900, Levis +1600 and Richardson +2400. But again, Caesars is OK with Young going first.
“We’ll take Bryce over Richardson or Levis,” Feazel said.
It’s a similar odds situation at FOX Bet, where Young is an even heavier favorite at -2000.
“The No. 1 pick [prop] is basically Bryce Young vs. the field at this point for us. Anyone but Bryce, and we’ll be happy with the result,” Griffe said.
Levis On The Move, Top Props
At FOX Bet, Griffe noted a more general offering that’s getting attention: Whether a team will draft an offensive or defensive player with its first pick. The prop is being offered on 15 teams so far.
“We posted [those] markets within the last week and have seen a good amount of action. Especially for Philadelphia, where we are nearly 50/50 in tickets/money,” Griffe said.
However, it appears the defending NFC champion Eagles will go for offense. FOX Bet has offense a -250 favorite and defense a +155 underdog.
FOX Bet is also taking noteworthy action on Kentucky QB Levis to go with the No. 2 overall pick.
If you read this space, you’ll remember when I wrote about Levis’ No. 1 draft pick odds shortening out of nowhere in February. The Kentucky quarterback’s odds are once again gaining steam, but this time when it comes to being the second overall pick in the draft.
“Levis has seen a significant move within the last 48 hours,” Griffe said Saturday night. “He’s our largest liability in the top five [picks]outside of Bryce Young at No. 1.”
Just three days ago, defensive stud Will Anderson was favored to go second, so as you can see, the markets move fast. The No. 2 pick market is definitely one to keep your eye on over the next few days.
On the NFL Draft prop bet of first receiver selected, Caesars has Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the -260 favorite.
“He’s a big favorite, but someone like Zay Flowers, he catches my eye and the eye of bettors,” Feazel said of the Boston College product, the +375 second choice to be the first wideout off the board.
There’s also a close race at Caesars for first offensive lineman drafted. Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is the -125 favorite, with Northwestern tackle Peter Skoronski close behind at +110.
“That could be some perceived value on the favorite for bettors, betting into shorter prices,” Feazel said, comparing odds on that prop with the hefty price on Young going No. 1 overall, among others. “Johnson and Skoronski have been going back-and-forth as favorites. But it could be someone else – Broderick Jones or Darnell Wright.”
Jones and Wright are both offensive tackles. Wright, from Tennessee, is the +450 third choice at Caesars, followed by Jones, from Georgia, at +600.
Tighten Up
A couple of tight end props are proving popular at Caesars Sports: first tight end drafted, and total number of tight ends drafted in the first round. For first tight end off the board, Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer is the -160 chalk, followed relatively closely by Utah’s Dalton Kincaid at +130.
“The tight end market is pretty appealing to me and bettors alike,” Feazel said. “It’s really going back-and-forth, with Mayer the favorite right now.”
Mayer and Kincaid are both expected to go in the first round – the Over/Under draft position on each of their individual props is 23.5 – but will there be a third tight end taken Thursday night? Caesars has the Over/Under set at 2.5.
“A guy who caught my eye is Georgia’s Darnell Washington,” Feazel said. “He’s a beast. He’s been getting late steam to sneak into the first round.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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